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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Understood. Transition was about three weeks. The first "front" broke the heat around the 8th. The heat kept rebounding very similarly to what we are seeing now on modeling. I am actually glad that you brought it up - it made me go back and look. I had forgotten the transition was that long. It may well be that we are seeing a similar transition...or it may just be the end of winter. Tough to tell. But if the transition is similar, we will see a few cold fronts coupled with some extreme warmth in between...then the hammer will drop. Not saying that will happen, but it would be very cool if it did. I do remember thinking that fall was finally here...then the next wave of heat would arrive. It was also very dry around that time which made the heat worse. Interestingly, the EPS pretty much shuts off the spigot to much of NA not including TX and Seattle. Otherwise, TN is very dry. ...I may go back and look at the Euro Weeklies for precip tendencies. I highly doubt their 500 pattern is anywhere near correct at the 12z run basically sank the 0z like the Bismark. If I remember correctly, tonight's version of the Weeklies did have a recurring SER. If that had been run from the afternoon's run...whew.
  2. Carvers Gap
    It was not quick. It was agonizingly slow. I actually went back and looked at TRI's temps for October. Pattern broke on October 8 even though the following week was warm. It just wasn't as extreme. We then went back and forth for the rest of the month with two cold fronts that had BN air. We thought we had finally gotten out of the pattern, and were hit with yet another extreme period of warmth during the last week. Then, the hammer finally dropped. But no, the pattern broke and took three weeks to step down. Very similar to what we are seeing right now and equally as frustrating. LOL. So, maybe that is a good find, Holston.
  3. Carvers Gap
    I don't think anyone is committed to any model path at this point but the trend for two days on most ensembles is warmer in the medium and LR(even on the models that are still cold)...and pretty frustrating seeing another head fake. The EPS hadn't been shifting much at all until a couple of days ago. It has led the way in identifying the breakdown of the Central Pacific Ridge and subsequent shake-up. The GEFS was actually quite late in recognizing next week's cool down. I would strongly suspect the EPS will likely verify well above the GEFS for the winter as a whole. Neither model will score well with this particular snafu. And for sure, a broken clock is right twice a day. What neither ensemble has been correct about(at least to this point) is the actual subsequent pattern that resulted in the breakdown of the Pacific Ridge. Seems like both models are playing catch-up to a quickly evolving "post-Pacific ridge" setup. The GEFS has been 3-4 days behind the curve - so far. Weeklies look good, but they did not run off the 12z run which is not in agreement with the Weeklies which are derived from the 0z run. The Weeklies and the 12z EPS diverge at d10...so one of them is likely incorrect and badly so. With that in mind, I would take that Weeklies run with a huge grain of salt if not just throw them out in their entirety given 12z trends. That said, the JAMSTEC did look decent in their weeklies but they have been poor in handling the MJO - really poor. Models flip flopping or simply staying with the wrong solution are both equally difficult forecast problems. I don't trust the GEFS as it has a very bad cold bias and has been wrong repeatedly this winter. Its problem has not been flip flopping but was in error by consistently staying with a cold pattern that never arrived. It showed cold for nearly the entire month of December at LR and never verified. The EPS/Euro has had very good verification with the MJO (once winter has settled in)which is why it gets more weight. The GEFS also did not handle the last MJO loop very well. The EPS has been steady relative to other modeling...but still poor. The EPS also has a bad tendency to perform very poorly during pattern changes or once the seasons begin changing. And like it or not, the seasons are changing in E TN. I have seen plants blooming as early as I have ever seen them. Robins are back. My yard is greening up. I will be mowing in about two weeks if the weather doesn't stay cold. My garlic has taken off as have my onions. My cover crops are know knee high. My micro-climate thinks it is spring. Oddly, the buffleheads(we have a couple of pairs near my house) never showed up this winter. I am guessing there is unusually open water to my north. Right now the message from the EPS is clear...We may potentially AN warmth during a timeframe that was forecast as well BN which is later next week. The 18z GFS is moving that direction as well. The 18z GEFS has actually warmed considerably through d11...What we don't know right now is whether modeling is picking up on a transient warm shot(per snowgoose) d8-11 or if it is a total head fake for the entire time period. The Nino BN heights on the GEFS at 0z have been nearly replaced by AN heights at 18z between d8-11. The change is stark. Probably should add it to the flip flop club as well. So, I don't think I am looking at just one run of one model. These changes have been moving across most ensembles for about 36 hours. Hopefully we can reverse those trends and maybe even steal a snowstorm from the multiple storms traversing across the southern tier. But I am not going to hold to colder solutions which are trending quickly away from that. Winter may yet return, I am not throwing in the towel on that or snowstorms. But make no mistake, model trends for the past couple of days have nearly reversed what looked like a great pattern at one point.
  4. Carvers Gap
    No. One of the big problems is the persistent ridge east of Hawaii. That teleconnects to a trough in the West. However, the trough over the Aleutians would teleconnect to a trough in the East. Generally, the feature west of Hawaii wins...unless of course that big red ball of death is up there in the North-Central Pacific. What is perplexing is that the GEFS and GEPS have left the EPS on its own. Now, the EPS can and has taken on all comers and won on multiple occasions. Snowgoose in the NE subform, thinks the Euro deal is a transient shift which I assume means that the ridge that is torching us during d8-11 is going to leave. Of greater concern, these strong cold shots modeled in the LR are verifying as nothing more than cold fronts. Very few things irritate me as much as big model shifts on ensembles. I don't remember ensembles being wrong so often compared to now. Used to they barely budged. So, maybe this isn't a head fake as much as it is a transient warm-up...don't hold your breath there, but know that is a possible outcome. You know, if I was forced to make a Feb forecast with no modeling...I would still go with a variable pattern w/ a slight lean BN. I am going to have to dig back through the fall thread, but we might have had a couple of delays and head fakes right before that pattern changed. This was a bad one though. Hey, but if fooled the CPC a couple of days, so we weren't the only ones.
  5. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS supports the operational but obviously muted. A bit of a red flag is the drastic reduction in the QPF across much of North America. Overall, the trend is for increasing heights over much of eastern NA.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Our hope right now is that the 12z GEPS/GEFS are correct about where the pattern goes from d10-15. We know those great looking patterns have not materialized inside of d10. But it is all we have. Maybe for once the Euro will be wrong. LOL...right. Anyway, for kicks and giggles take a look at the gold on the GEPS while knowing that look has not materialized even one time since November.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Other than the cold snap that lasts for about 48 hours, there is no change to the pattern over the lower 48. The big Pacific Ridge is gone, but trough is solidly entrenched in the West and massive ridge in the East with temps later next weekend possibly eclipsing highs this week - if they verify. The only silver lining is that the Euro operational sends the cold to Baja and that is a classic feedback signal. But there is zero evidence on the operational that the pattern over the lower 48 has done nothing but relax. Hopefully the EPS disagrees, but that is a prolonged MJO phase 6 pattern.
  8. Carvers Gap
    @144 the massive ridge in the East is back and remains(and strengthens) through 240 on the Euro operational. Trough in the West. Unreal. Hoping that is transient, but surely does not appear to be so as it is barely moving late in the run. Officially by all ensembles for the time from of Jan16/17 to 25...a head fake. Temperatures in Quebec are nearly +40F with temps over the TN Valley at +20F with temps in the upper60s and approaching 70 by the end of the run.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Well, the 12z Euro gets rid of the cutter at 204 and tries for a weak Miller A. Problem...temps are MUCH above normal.
  10. Carvers Gap
    I think one thing we have learned is that if the waters are warm in the western Atlantic where MJO phase 6 is...need to temper forecasts from the get go. LOL.
  11. Carvers Gap
    One last nugget...it appears the QBO is decently in the negative range at 30mb. That would likely accentuate any late season blocking on the horizon. Let's see if we begin to see some Atlantic blocking show up.
  12. Carvers Gap
    I was watching JB this morning...so credit goes to his group for the following comments. I will add some of my own spin as well. He mentioned that the new JMA is depicting substantial subsidence over almost all of the areas that are considered warm phases of the MJO. There is convection forecast in 8, 1, and 2. But here is the problem, the Modoki El Nino is warm right in the area where phase 6 is. So, what happens is the phase 6 areas have convection along with 8, 1, and 2. He says that the null phase of the MJO being shown on the CPC might not be a null phase at all but actually be these two conflicting areas of convection that wash-out the MJO signal. In other words, the MJO is alive and well and that the MJO is indeed not in the null phase at all. It is in 8/1/2 and 6/7 simultaneously. Going back to your comment, I think we have ENSO region 4 that is like bath water and is really acting like a super Nino for that area. In the area closes to North America, we have what is basically a La Nina. Both of those SST configurations are massive signals for a SER. The good think about the JMA is that it has flipped cold in its Weeklies look. Do I believe that verifies? Nah. It did that last year and woefully busted. I do think we see much more cooler weather, but will it be able to hook-up with any of these systems in the active STJ? And yes, this is EXACTLY why I hate El Nino winters. They are cloudy, rainy, and warm - most of the winter except for what many will correctly say are a few glorious events. They often get here late and sometimes not at all. That said, this upcoming pattern is a big hitter patten though it might not be a pattern that has sustained cold. Just a parade of storms lined up which are getting forced south by that Hudson Bay block. If we land one storm that is juiced, nobody remembers the crap temps. I had hoped to never see those 90s winters again. That said, plenty of storms line-up. Let's see where it goes.
  13. Carvers Gap
    0z suite was quite unimpressive regarding ensembles. Not going to belabor the point. Just unreal how many times overnight ensembles look worse, especially the EPS.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Definitely some good trends at 12z and 18z on modeling and ensembles. The good thing is that modeling did not continue trending with yesterday's shift.
  15. Carvers Gap
    I feel confident be pattern is still on target to change. The question is...what is ultimately the new pattern? Sometimes what is actually the transition fools the best of us and the actual base pattern has not settled in...That said, I “think” modeling is now showing its hand. Fortunately, there were not wholesale changes today as there were yesterday. Looks to me like a classic Nino pattern with a bit of extra juice. (This is where I thought we were headed last year). The ultra cold solutions from last week didn’t fit climatology. BUT the trough underneath a ridge in the East is textbook. So looks like ensembles have another cold shot around d13-15. All ensembles showed this at 12z. That is probably our winter wx pattern. Looks to me like this is a step down pattern like November. Remember how long it took to finally kick out that heat ridge? Same deal now. I don’t see signs of a trough locking into the NW. if anything ensembles show a BN heights in the SW which eject eastward. As tnweathernut mentioned, always like to see storms entering the US in Southern California. All of that said, we need the Euro operational to finally begin to show a winter like pattern. There were some much above temps on the operational late in the run.
  16. Carvers Gap
    The pattern did change which modeling did get correct. It has been woefully incorrect about the new patten for Jan 17-24. Lots of zonal components to the new pattern and what once looked like strong cold fronts are nothing more than seasonal(or above) frontal passages. Can't really be called a head fake since the pattern did change. The trough in the West is pretty much gone. But it looks like it is going to be nearly total bust(all three ensembles) with the exclusion of the 2-3 day cold snap next week. Hopefully, we see a continued step down later in the month. At this point that is a variable pattern which is base warm.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Sorry, Holston. Must have posted at the same time. No reference to you post. Basically NA loses its BN temp anomalies until very late in the run when the Yukon reloads. The Yukon reload of cold might be the only positive thing I see on that map along with Holston's Aleutian low. When I am in January having to look at d10 for any hope...we are in a rough stretch. We better hope the EPS has something...because that operational run means the EPS from a few days ago will absolutely not verify or even be close. That is what we call a bust.
  18. Carvers Gap
    As John would say, the 12z Euro operational is pretty much a turd in the punch bowl.
  19. Carvers Gap
    On both the GEFS and GEPS at 12z, there is a signal of another cold shot later in both of those model runs. Again, when an ensemble moves a bit...probably should take note. The MJO is also very much in doubt after phase 7. We have definitely had the exact same situation occur once already. Does it loop back into 5/6 or just die in the COD. I lean towards the COD after seeing the EMON yesterday and after seeing a slight balk on the Euro MJO this morning. It runs right up to 6 and stops for three days. On the EMON, it takes that trajectory and reverses back into the COD. The loop back towards 6 is likely why models are showing a warmup in the mid range and then move back to colder solutions. Let's HOPE that the MJO does not go back into 6....if so, would be mid-Feb before we likely see anything decent in terms of cold again.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Really nice post by PSU in the MA forum. Now, it should be noted that the pattern in DC does not affect most of us. For those living in TRI, I have found that some of their setups do deliver here. Anyway, pay careful attention to the patterns that provided big snows on the coast and their similarities to what is being shown on ensembles. It wouldn't take many adjustments for that to impact us here. Anyway, with not blocking in the Atlantic we need a 50/50 low and that is what is missing on modeling that seems like it should have more storms. I will tag @psuhoffman so he knows I have quoted his post. PSU, hope you don't mind the share.
  21. Carvers Gap
    12z GEFS is rolling. Slightly colder with next week's shot of cold air. Moderation is slightly warmer after that. Another shot of colder air at the end of the run which is colder than 6z. Good signs in that we don't want to see any more steps backward. That was basically a hold or even slight improvement.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Bottom line so far at 12z: One will rarely find a pattern as hostile to winter as the one this week. The pattern shake-up next week is still a go. To me, it is not a great pattern nor nearly as good as a few runs ago. However, it is better than this week's which is not saying much but it simply couldn't get any worse. We can steal a storm in the upcoming pattern. It is both active and has cold shots. A sustained pattern with multiple winter events is not on modeling at this time. That could change, but if the cold doesn't hold...tough to get the timing right for a storm at this latitude.
  23. Carvers Gap
    And I should add, there is suppression on the GFS later in its run...However, as we have been getting closer to verification it very much seem like our nemesis is going to be cutters, WAA, or even zonal flow. We may need stuff tracking to Cuba at LR with no blocking in the Atlantic...which oddly the GFS did try to build and then squared.
  24. Carvers Gap
    Key takeaways from the 12z GFS: 1. It is all over the place. Unlikely its timing is remotely correct with so much energy running around. 2. There is a lot of energy in what is a loosely defined split flow pattern. 3. There might be "just enough" cold air. Classic, classic El Nino SE trough stuck under a ridge. 4. I think we can safely say that a suppressed pattern is about as unlikely as snow in July. Looks to me like getting cold to hold is going to be the biggest struggle. What is being modeled (at least for today...we now that will change) is a "warm-up and rain" pattern with some chances for WAA to overrun cold air. 5. It is highly unlikely that modeling has any of this worked out yet. However, looks to me like our first legit chances to track winter storms might be later next week during tnweathernut's storm window. 6. The bleeding has slowed down (meaning pattern going to crap) on the GFS. Trends are still not great, but the spiral has slowed.
  25. Carvers Gap
    The other red flag was when the Euro operational simply did not agree with the EPS and never developed a deep trough. The Euro operational has been very solid.
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