Carvers Gap

18z GFS Para has the S/M event...

And to be clear, I would shocked if that map verified...that is just for fun. However, I do think tracking a significant event or two is not out of the question. The GFS, CMC, and Euro have been throwing haymakers. The pattern (IF THE COLD BOUNDARY HOLDS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND HOLDS WITHOUT GOING TO CUBA), is a great set-up if we can time precip. We have been tracking this trough amplification since Jan 19th - all the way back in the other thread. Pretty cool.

What is wild is that that the 12z GEFS certainly supports something like two snow storms - maybe not that crazy looking, but two decent snows back-to-back. Cold air intrusions this winter have generally supported snowfall each time they have happened. We haven't really had an extended shot of cold like is being portrayed. So, going to be a fun test.

We just want the cold front to stall south of the forum area for just long enough so that an active southern jet attacks it.

Probably 95-96 is closer or maybe an old school overrunning event. 93 was a monster. That map is the result of two big storms which follow one right after the other. Spacing is perfect and the cold air boundary is prime. Assuming the GFS is maybe to quick with its deeper cold, I think a big winter storm is certainly possible over the sub-forum.

If that verifies, I may retire....or just die from shoveling first.

I like my map better. 240 with Kuchera...

Sorry, should have led with this...Anything interesting on the 12z Euro today?

Not sure if the snow or the cold after the snow is more impressive. My house pipes just shivered.

If the EPO ever cranks and Alaska's cold is dislodged..... Low tonight in Fairbanks is -40F with wind chill advisories of -60F.

Raining here in Kingsport. LOL - no lie. Upslope events are not our thing here.

Could easily happen. These patterns with huge temp swings tend to cause huge fluctuations. Seems like this winter all we need is a 3-4 day cold shot to be in business. Looks like a strong amplification this weekend, and maybe another mid-month. If that pans out, we may all be ready for spring. LOL!

There are several nice members, but that is just insane. LOL.

Really, the setup verbatim is not whether it will snow but where it will snow due to the cold air being modeled. Long way to go, but it is pretty rare to see that type of pattern.

12z EPS has the storm next Sunday.

The 12z EPS is backing up the operational out to 168. Where it once had a weak frontal passage on the 5th, it now has a massive shot of cold air which drives SE of this subform area with much BN heights over the OH Valley.

There are multiple snow events inside of d10 ranging from backside snow, to clippers, to full on winter storms. Not saying any or all of this verifies...just reporting what is on modeling.

The 12z GEFS mean and GEPS means are bonkers. The GEPS has 2"+ mean for all of TN and into norther MS and AL. GEFS isn't far from that. EPS is roiling now. Let's see if we can hold onto that signal. Could be a blip, but wow...what a blip if so.

The 12z Euro for the next 10 days...that is insane. Kuchera. Smokies w/ nearly 40."

Seriously, Wow. The CMC was nuts and so was the GFS. That CMC look at 240...after it had already brought snow with with the earlier storm. Looks like modeling is trending slightly further south with the freezing line. Good sign.

Just checking in to make sure everyone is doing well after that snoozer of a 12z suite.....

I know we are looking at M/T stuff, but next weekend is not without promise. Timing is a bit different on each, but both the Euro and GFS(old and new) show something along the front as it sags through our area. The EPS has finally seen the light, and the 6z EPS pushes a strong cold front through just after the 6th. I would also suspect we have a legit shot a clipper with this cold and then maybe a WAA system as it departs. Operational models are definitely colder than the ensembles of each model overnight. Makes me think the ensembles are playing catch-up. The ensembles seem to have been very slow to adjust to the actual pattern. Some fun facts, the MUO is gaining amplitude in phase 6 which is normally very warm. If we get snow in phase 6, enjoy that! Doesn't happen often. One would think that the wave in 6 is going to propagate to the dateline and get us to phase 8. The CHI map yesterday shows that and then has precip over Eastern Africa which would imply phase 1-2 of the MJO. So, I would suspect modeling and MJO charts to at least "try" to get the MJO in colder phases. Honestly, as long as that block is over Greenland modeling is likely to struggle. As wavelengths shorten(due to spring approaching at this latitude in 4-5 weeks...think it will be a bit late), modeling is going to struggle with that as well, especially the EPS(shoulder season issues). Somebody remind me, does the NAO have a great impact early, mid, or late season in terms of cold/snow?

0z GFS easily has the coldest air mass of the season after 150. West TN gets some digital snow on that run as well. Low single digits around 200.

Think we are going to see cutters periodically drive the cold boundary eastward(which will be fought by the SER). How far SE that boundary gets driven will determine winter wx vs rain. The Euro looks like it is dealing with a lot of feedback issues around d10.

The 12z Euro later in its run(though cold in the Ohio Valley), is playing the "tuck rule" game where it tucks a trough under a big EPO. Very realistic probability and one way the pattern could go wrong. That has occurred during the past 3-4 winters. That said, the NAO is a new feature on the map this year, and may not allow that trough to have staying power under the EPO ridge this time. Have a feeling that gets forced out.