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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Surface accumulations are significantly down on this run. The westward trend continued. I think the spine of the Apps shredded the storm. I will say...one more jog westward, and this becomes a middle TN storm (and maybe major) on the GFS. The synoptics still look good, but a low directly over the apps just messes with dynamics to no end. My expectations are low for MBY on this one.
  2. Carvers Gap
    GFS is going to be a paste job for some.
  3. Carvers Gap
    Through 42 hours, the GFS looks sharper and follows the trend of short range modeling.
  4. Carvers Gap
    12z GFS is rolling.
  5. Carvers Gap
    That is a nasty looking storm on the Euro after 200.
  6. Carvers Gap
    12z RGEM has a similar trend NW. In this scenario, NE TN gets a good thump, but if you look at the snow totals for this storm, you can seen the axis really sharpen and back west a bit. So looks like the short range "cone" is the spine of the Apps to just around Nashville. Prior, this had stopped at the Plateau. NE TN is on the easter envelope of this now - but a good run nonetheless but trends do matter at this stage - not a huge fan of trends right now for MBY. That said, the storm is still there...just backing west a bit. So, the likelihood of somebody getting snow on Christmas Eve is still there with chances for somebody in our forum area(to see a decent thump of snow) increasing at this point.
  7. Carvers Gap
    @John1122 and some other posters in that region are gurus for your micro-climate. I will let them answer your question in detail on that. They are way more knowledgeable about the northern Plateau than I am. But yeah, generally, your chances look decent IMHO.
  8. Carvers Gap
    1-2. We deal with a significant heat island here and are right on the river, so our elevation is a bit lower than Bristol or JC.
  9. Carvers Gap
    I would be liking my chances right now if on the easter side of the Plateau.
  10. Carvers Gap
    3K NAM looks a little more robust for E TN valley locations...not a fan of that trend for MBY but will benefit folks to my west. Let's see where modeling goes...trend overnight have been a slightly westward jog of the slp. Storm may well be a powerhouse. Problem for those of us in E TN, the stronger this gets...the more it could wind-up and shift west. Again, the NAM has issues with being overly amped past 48, so lets see what the models on the east side of the envelope do...RGEM and GFS operational. The Euro at 6z was popping a low over NE TN.
  11. Carvers Gap
    And welcome aboard!!!!
  12. Carvers Gap
    Probably a wise move right now. If the 12k NAM(which is iffy at best at this range) is correct, they may be too high over NE TN. So, going conservative is wise. They can always up totals. I think that is just a heads-up for people traveling.
  13. Carvers Gap
    12z NAM basically blanks E TN valley locations.
  14. Carvers Gap
    If you live in NE TN(really all of E TN), not a trend you want to see from the NAM. Now, it is the NAM past 48 hours and it has a problem with over-amping systems. The slp is stronger with the NAM by several millibars. That in turn sharpens the storm and changes the angle into the region. Snow axis moved about 200 mi west in KY from eastern KY to middle KY.
  15. Carvers Gap
    MRX snowfall map..
  16. Carvers Gap
    O' Canada!!!
  17. Carvers Gap
    0z GFS nice trends.
  18. Carvers Gap
    Great time lapse!
  19. Carvers Gap
    What is interesting about the control run, that is multiple storms which bring that about.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Been traveling today. Did Christmas on the back porch with some family and socially distanced to boot. That doesn't look all that bad. Models are just struggling with timing of the front in relation to precip along with a lee side low. Hey, threw you guys a nugget in the pattern thread.
  21. Carvers Gap
    In all seriousness, the pattern that is being depicted on LR models and Weeklies runs(CFSv2 and Euro) has one of the most impressive NAO setups that I can remember. Pacific is TBD. That said, looks like we are going to see some storms take the low road. If that verifies, January would have some opportunities I think. Trying to temper my excitement. After last winter, anything looks better. But honestly, the overall pattern looks old school good at times.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Not to be used as a serious weather map, but the Euro Weeklies Control run says Merry Christmas to the entire freakin' forum.
  23. Carvers Gap
    The Euro Weeklies control.....
  24. Carvers Gap
    Will be very interesting to see the Euro Weeklies tonight at the EPS is out on a limb with its 0z look after d14. It could score the coup, but not a lot of support for that look right now from other global models. My guess is there is more of a trough in the East. There is one tucked under a monster NAO, but the EPS is trying to connect a ridge into the eastern lower 48. That "could" happen but seems unlikely. It and the GEFS will have to be watched for a GOA low. If you watch the 0z EPS side-by-side, you can see it correct eastward with a system just prior to 330. Now, since we know that is a bias...it can still be used and lines up nicely when that "golf handicap" is applied. That said, I think this bias in the LR is going to cause problems on the Weeklies as the are derived from the 0z run. All of that said, the EPS is a great example of how the NAO is muting a very bad Pacific set-up. If we could get the Pac on board, we would likely see a memorable pattern if the NAO were to hold. The 0z GEPS is quite close to that...GEFS is a nice compromise between the GEPS and EPS.
  25. Carvers Gap
    Found this to be a really interesting Tweet(saw this in the MA forum)...
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