Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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Portions of Knox Co are at 11" though 222. -
When we consider that the Euro had nothing for several runs....that is a really big jump.
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The 12z Euro has some eerily similar characteristics to the 12z para-gfs multi-day overrunning event.
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I don't know. The SLP pops off Charleston, SC. It has plenty of room to correct northwest. Would likely mean the entire storm spins up and we could have a very potent inland runner. Confluence would be earlier which could really force that thing to go neg tilt. tnweathernut is far better with that stuff than I!
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I think there has been something wrong with modeling for about 48 hours....have seemed way, way to benign given then pattern.
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So, is the 12z GFS wrong or is it wrong(in a good way) - meaning that storm should did a bit more and trend well west of even the current modeling?
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NA view 500 sort map at 144 (animate it) is like a conveyor on the Euro. No idea if it goes to the para-gfs multi-day over-running event, but the set-up is almost there.
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Request for the entire run here. Pivotal goes to 240...can you get more?
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You may still get to yet! LOL. I am not ruling out any scenario. Mine need washing as well. Just got it done last weekend, and now have salt all over them again.
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The 12z para-GFS is just going nuts. Frame that run. Crazy. Not saying that verifies...but wild, wild multi-day over-running event. Overall accumulation map is pretty will as well...think it doesn't go past 240 or it would be more due to the storm just after 240.
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So now we wait to see if US modeling has support. The para-GFS looks like it is cooking up yet another winter storm just inside of d10. It may be toying with a Euro-lite version from the other day. The 12z CMC is much lighter with its qpf. So there are two total plausible runs. One shows how to whiff and one shows how to score. I do like that the GFS seems to have had the hotter hand of late - especially the para.
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The 12z regular GFS is bringing temps to -16 to -17F along the TN/KY border in middle TN late next weekend. Obviously, that is WAY out there but if we get snow pack and the cold lurking in the eastern Plains, that is possible.
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12z US modeling has just changed. We will see if they get support from other modeling....Forecasters will be very conservative until these runs get support.
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The 12z Para-GFS already has a foot over middle TN at 200 with the event still ongoing.
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To balance out the effort, the 12z CMC is basically the opposite of US modeling right now. The 12z GFS, though, is about to bring the final hammer with the cold.
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I may be cashing in the para-GFS for the season...
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Man, the para-gfs is pretty much a multi-day overruning event. Light right now, but the para and regular GFS at 12z are right where we want the boundary. Are they right? No idea, but will gladly take the trend.
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Good to see the CMC working back. Tough for me to tell if the usual biases are in play right now or if US modeling has rediscovered the pattern from a few days ago...because this is pretty much what modeling had the other day with multiple events.
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Para and GFS are having a "hold my beer" dueling set of runs. The Para has what appears to be the beginning of an overrunning event also for next Fri but further east and a bit south.
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Nope, not done. The regular GFS now has a major winter storm on Friday for middle and western areas.
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I like the trends so far at 12z on US models. Rain changing to snow showers on Friday. Potential winter storm Sunday. Another system Wednesday. Let's see if we can get US modeling some support. You all can post the maps.
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Looks like the Para will join its older sibling in modeling more wintery weather with yet a second system, the west TN system mentioned above for Wednesday(para may be a hair slower).
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The regular 12z GFS has a light wintry mix over western portions of the forum area Tuesday-Wednesday. Para hammers middle TN w the Sunday system - E TN does pretty decently as well.
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Somebody post the para-gfs map. It is a good one - not great but good.
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Beginning to look like the Para-GFS has scored the short range coup with this Sunday system. Now admittedly, most models had this a few days ago, and then lost it. However, the para has held steadfast - when it has run.
