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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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March 11th-13th Winter Weather Event. Winter's last gasp?
Carvers Gap replied to Windspeed's topic in Tennessee Valley
I think this is still relevant to the storm thread. Temps and wind chills tonight are going to be maybe the coldest of the season or close to it. From MRX Discussion: Will likely see some snow showers lingering into the evening hours over the TN mountains and also northeast TN and southwest VA. Still have winter headlines out for these areas, but all of them expire at 00z. This seems reasonable for northern areas but may be perhaps a couple of hours too long in the south. At this point in the event though, this is splitting hairs though as no further significant snow accumulations are expected in any of these areas. Otherwise, temperatures will be the big story for the remainder of the short term. Trended overnight lows towards a mix of the GFS and Canadian with a little NBM 25th percentile mixed in. Given the snow pack across the valley, and the expected light winds late tonight as high pressure builds into the region, it seems more than plausible that some single digit lows will be seen tonight. One factor that could wind up making this a mistake is that winds will remain elevated through the evening and perhaps first part of the overnight hours. But guidance indicates high pressure will build in from the southwest after midnight tonight which will force winds to become light in the valley and should allow temperatures to plummet. Related to overnight lows, wind chill values will be very low at higher elevations beginning this afteroon and lasting through the overnight hours. A few locations above 3,000 ft have already seen wind chills near zero this afternoon, but beginning around 22z we should see these locations begin to see wind chills dipping to between -5 and -15 degrees. Will go ahead with a wind chill advisory to account for this. Low level flow turns around out of the south tomorrow, resulting in highs climbing into the mid 40s to low 50s and alleviating any remaining hazardous road conditions and melting any snow left. -
March 11th-13th Winter Weather Event. Winter's last gasp?
Carvers Gap replied to Windspeed's topic in Tennessee Valley
Found it on this page... -
March 11th-13th Winter Weather Event. Winter's last gasp?
Carvers Gap replied to Windspeed's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, I kind of thought its as cool to see the western TN snow streak. Some modeling just nailed that. Honestly, that amazes me that computer modeling can do that. -
March 11th-13th Winter Weather Event. Winter's last gasp?
Carvers Gap replied to Windspeed's topic in Tennessee Valley
Some cool satellite photos. Snow banding/squalls are evident over NE TN, W NC, and SW VA. -
March 11th-13th Winter Weather Event. Winter's last gasp?
Carvers Gap replied to Windspeed's topic in Tennessee Valley
Well, when we hit 63 on Monday...it is going to continue its journey along the water cycle after being in suspended animation today while on the ground. Springs snows rarely last long due to the sun's angle. Tonight, it should help lows get Into the low teens and/or single digits depending on location. Easily the most wintery day of the year IMBY...and it is March. Wind is howling, ice cycles are hanging from the house, snow squalls moving through, sun shining, and wind chills in the low teens. -
March 11th-13th Winter Weather Event. Winter's last gasp?
Carvers Gap replied to Windspeed's topic in Tennessee Valley
This is easily our best storm of the season in west Kingsport. Probably between 4.5-5" of snow here at the house and a solid 5" of snow on the groomed surfaces of the golf course. Sledding is good today. I have almost enjoyed these snow bands as much as the storm itself. Going to be COLD tonight!!! -
March 11th-13th Winter Weather Event. Winter's last gasp?
Carvers Gap replied to Windspeed's topic in Tennessee Valley
I was watching for downslope traits, and didn't see them. I was up late when it changed over, and that dry pocket came through. There was seemingly a small bit of rotation to it. Kind of cool and was kind of not! LOL. It almost looked like that slipped over the apps into NE TN and then headed for SW VA...and it keep moving which is why it didn't really seem like a downslope deal. Very dynamic storm to pull something like that off! Glad you got some snow over that way. -
March 11th-13th Winter Weather Event. Winter's last gasp?
Carvers Gap replied to Windspeed's topic in Tennessee Valley
Grassy areas are crazy deep. The golf course might have 6" in the short rough. There is more in the neighborhood if you get away from trees. -
March 11th-13th Winter Weather Event. Winter's last gasp?
Carvers Gap replied to Windspeed's topic in Tennessee Valley
I have 4" of snow on the back patio table and 5" in the garden. I wasn't over 3-3.5" in any of those places until that band roared through. It dropped a solid, additional 1-1.5" of snow here. -
March 11th-13th Winter Weather Event. Winter's last gasp?
Carvers Gap replied to Windspeed's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, I think my totals are pushing 3.5-4" now. I will go get a measurement in a sec. Nice way to close out this storm. -
March 11th-13th Winter Weather Event. Winter's last gasp?
Carvers Gap replied to Windspeed's topic in Tennessee Valley
This is old school stuff. Get a nice coastal and then it snows for hours after as the moisture is just wrung out of the atmosphere. -
March 11th-13th Winter Weather Event. Winter's last gasp?
Carvers Gap replied to Windspeed's topic in Tennessee Valley
Man, it is just puking snow under this band. With the wind blowing, visibility is down to about 1/8" of a mile or less. -
March 11th-13th Winter Weather Event. Winter's last gasp?
Carvers Gap replied to Windspeed's topic in Tennessee Valley
Yeah, that band is stout. Just pouring snow. Probably will pick-up another 0.5" or more. -
March 11th-13th Winter Weather Event. Winter's last gasp?
Carvers Gap replied to Windspeed's topic in Tennessee Valley
We managed to to get to 3 to 3.5". We would have gotten more had that little area of dry circulation not rotated through last night. It wasn't downslope I don't think. It was location to the track and that little mesoscale circulation of dry air which rotated through. Overall, I thought models did really well with the exception being last minute trends. -
March 11th-13th Winter Weather Event. Winter's last gasp?
Carvers Gap replied to Windspeed's topic in Tennessee Valley
I have seen bigger snows, but this is easily the biggest snow of the year. A good thump! Now on to the first week of April - LOL...sort of. Going to bed ya'll. It's been good! -
March 11th-13th Winter Weather Event. Winter's last gasp?
Carvers Gap replied to Windspeed's topic in Tennessee Valley
Nice band for sure. We are at about 1/8-1/4mi visibility. Winds are brisk under that band as well. -
March 11th-13th Winter Weather Event. Winter's last gasp?
Carvers Gap replied to Windspeed's topic in Tennessee Valley
The thing is, I think the rapidly deepening phase of the slp is now occuring. I can see the bands getting much heavier around TRI. -
March 11th-13th Winter Weather Event. Winter's last gasp?
Carvers Gap replied to Windspeed's topic in Tennessee Valley
What is crazy, the NAM 12k is massive as are almost all of the other 6z short range models and the RAP and HRRR. Makes me wonder if they got some bad data. I tend to agree w dwagner that it is moving to fast to drop that much snow. -
March 11th-13th Winter Weather Event. Winter's last gasp?
Carvers Gap replied to Windspeed's topic in Tennessee Valley
Heavy snow here at the moment. -
March 11th-13th Winter Weather Event. Winter's last gasp?
Carvers Gap replied to Windspeed's topic in Tennessee Valley
The HRRR isn't too far off the 3k FWIW....and it fits the mesoscale look posted by 1234. -
March 11th-13th Winter Weather Event. Winter's last gasp?
Carvers Gap replied to Windspeed's topic in Tennessee Valley
Likely correct. The reason I looked is that I noticed the bands tightening up around TRI and intensifying. If I get 2-3", I will be happy. That will be the most we have had all season. -
March 11th-13th Winter Weather Event. Winter's last gasp?
Carvers Gap replied to Windspeed's topic in Tennessee Valley
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March 11th-13th Winter Weather Event. Winter's last gasp?
Carvers Gap replied to Windspeed's topic in Tennessee Valley
3K NAM went nuts at 0z. -
March 11th-13th Winter Weather Event. Winter's last gasp?
Carvers Gap replied to Windspeed's topic in Tennessee Valley
Good find. Looks like the west side of this has filled back in and is a little more organized. Send me some thunder, and I am good for the season. -
March 11th-13th Winter Weather Event. Winter's last gasp?
Carvers Gap replied to Windspeed's topic in Tennessee Valley
Light to moderate snow has resumed here. Ground is turning white. Not the huge rates of TYS, but probably the best we have seen all winter. There is a mix of fine flakes and medium size flakes. There is almost no wind. edit: temp is 33.1
