Carvers Gap
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Everything posted by Carvers Gap
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@Holston_River_Rambler, think you have time to put together a GIF of the 12GEFS 500mb height anomy for North America?
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Spring is definitely not on wx modeling....yet.
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The 12z GFS continues to beat the drum for a system(northern stream influence) around or just before Valentine's Day - on of John's windows for development which he discussed above. Also, I wouldn't sleep on that system on Tuesday. It is the second of a 1-2 punch system that originally was a storm here, then trended OTS, and the trailer is now onshore/coastline again. The 12z GFS continues to advertise quite a volatile pattern after the tenth - meaning the potential for storms are there. For sure it could be dry, but there are a ton of relatively small pieces of energy flying around.
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Weak La Nina's are cold roughly 65-70% of the time in the Upper South, sometimes very cold. The worst cold/snow I have seen IMBY has been during weak La Ninas. Weak La Ninas often occur during the second year of a La Nina cycle. I think the combination of the La Nina being weak and it being year 2 of the cycle(resets ocean temp gradients), makes them colder on average. I will have a break-down of the winter(what went right/wrong) once February is over. These second year, weak La Ninas have a pretty normal pattern which is different than year one. Year one, December is cold with a warm-up during Jan/Feb. Year two, December is warm and then often(not always) January into February is cold. I also think @John1122's correlation of cold Novembers worked out nicely this year. I am not so sure it didn't work last year as well given the snow/ice in W TN last year at this time. Additionally, the cold/snow which we had in E TN was likely in response to the Dec -NAO pattern waining and leaving. The end of an NAO pattern is good for eastern areas. The storm tract remains suppressed even as the STJ kicks back in. And definitely worth noting, NAOs are better during mid and late winter(not December).
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That is wild. Cold appears to be outdoing modeling if that is the case.
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Keep the lights on!!! I think spring will wait until after the 20th at least...but it is kinda headed toward spring at that point anyway with the days getting longer and being almost March. I think Arkansas actually may still see some winter after this even if modeling is even close to correct. I have a batch of onions to put in my hoop house. I need it to get warm at some point. LOL.
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The old school mammalian version of Dr No!
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@Holston_River_Ramblerbringing the goods with the mountain torque stuff. I couldn't find my way out of a paper bag if trying to discuss MT. @nrgjeff, man, was working on this post when you posted.... 1. I may have actually misread Larry on this one. Here is his quote regarding March. He is not overly cold for February BTW. This is just relating to the PV discussion: Changes in the circumpolar vortex at the stratospheric level (10MB), with a transfer of coldest values to Canada, might allow a comeback assault of frigid air at some point between March 1 and 10. But the sun is getting higher in the sky, and opportunities to build snow cover after this week appear limited. 2. The 50mb anomaly on the 18z GFS looks pretty jostled. 3. The GFS has had a clipper around the 204 range and is moving it forward in time. It has had that for days. 4. Here is the d5-10 500mb pattern and the d10-15 500mb pattern. If the EPS is correct, the pattern should mature in the d10-15 range. 5. CANSIPS model from WxBell shows a cold February(edit!) which looks awfully similar to the GEFS and EPS. With February often being an active weather month, hard not to like that. It has AN precip for the month over the TN Valley, but the event tomorrow may skew that a bit. The CPC today has the 6-14 w/ BN precip. That said, sometimes cold/wintry patterns have BN precip OR the pattern is just dry! 6. And the only teleconnection that matters.... Punxsutawney Phil, Poppy, Mount Joy Minnie and Octoraro Orphie gave their predictions today, with a nearly unanimous prognostication for six more weeks of winter. Only one -- Orphie -- is calling for an early spring. https://lancasteronline.com/news/local/heres-what-punxsutawney-phil-and-lancaster-countys-own-groundhogs-predicted-on-groundhog-day-2022-photos/article_5457d342-8421-11ec-9f66-bfca0220a202.html I hope Phil has his crap together on this...
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I don’t think it will be bone dry. Man, I could be wrong. Usually colder patterns have some dry wx embedded. Cold requires dry air masses for the most part in order to sustain the cold. I don’t trust details in modeling right now. The overall long wave pattern computer modeling has been stellar in the LR this winter. Really, the only thing modeling has missed is they flipped erroneously to a baser warm pattern for Feb. Feb may finish AN for temps, but it will be the first 4-5 days which do it. February looks like a battleground month for this area...some rain and some snow. I think the East is currently completing the dry spell which was forecast. With the heavy rain we are about to get, we need about 5-7 days to dry and/or thaw out. After the 10th(with the way the tough is aligned and assuming modeling is very likely over doing the depth of the trough), could be multiple systems at that point. I would be shocked if we don’t see 1-2 big storms after the 10th in the East That is a big time set up at 500. @Holston_River_Rambler, Cosgrove mentioned on FB that the strat may be getting jostled. Now, I admittedly skimmed that post. Have u seen anything of the sort? If so...spring may start...and then stop! Of note, the last part of spring looks a bit chilly on the cfs. Makes me wonder if El Niño is about to show up. LOL Lastly, if you all have not read math/met’s post on the mountain wave event, please do so. It is just a few posts above this one.
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The 12z GEFS is honking after d10. The d10-16 snow mean fro NE TN is 4"+ which is significant at this range. That is a big bump upward. @Wurbus, I have to hit the road again. Any big storms skewing that, or is that pretty consistent? You have a good eye or those individuals mean trends.
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Well, I never posted more. LOL. We are in a lull in the eastern forum areas. Meanwhile, the western forum areas will be fighting to keep the lights on due to ice. IF....IF...the 12z ensembles of both the GEFS and EPS are correct, we have a good pattern at 500 following this storm. Again, I think the time to watch is Feb 10-20th. The EPS looks particularly good as it puts the storm track right on the eastern seaboard or slightly inland.
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"Cold November" correlation paying off big time this year.
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MW posts are some of my favorites. For those new to the forum, @Math/Metis an expert. As or the LR, I am going to keep it short(amazing, right?) so as not to bury that great MW post in the thread. The LR right after the 10th looks really good - as in really good. I do caution that pattern is about 8 days out, so that could still change. The configuration of the trough over the East would be quite a wintry pattern for however long that look lasts. See my ensemble post graphics from yesterday as a reference. For now, we get the pattern and worry about the details (storms in the pattern). Obviously one can never guarantee anything in the weather, and I will avoid that when at all possible...but that is a big time look. Will post more later.
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18z GFS trends SE but still has the storm this weekend. It would not surprise me to see this trend off the board. What I do like is the clipper fest behind it. That is very 14-15ish. Would be a nice way to end the season.
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Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?
Carvers Gap replied to John1122's topic in Tennessee Valley
UK and Duke are just juggernauts. Auburn is as well. LSU has potential. Tennessee has to go to a guard heavy line-up or one of our bigs has to get hot. And I do think JF is going to finish the year with a flurry of good games. He is a Kingsport player. He is tough because of that. This might be one year where the Vols have not peaked early. TN doesn't have the talent of other teams, but they like to fight(and get into fights). That will help come tourney time. -
I addition to that second system which slides by just after, there is a parade of northern stream energy as well which would likely result in some northwest flow/clipper type events. We want the GFS to be right about where it is placing the battle zone which is slightly to our south. As Jeff notes, it will likely come back north some. February rarely has prolonged suppression issues(speaking of the pattern and not this weekend's system).
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There is a piece of energy trailing that weekend system. Looks like there are two tightly spaced chances with SLPs passing to our south. Gotta get that slp south of here which those two looks do. Now the CMC does have the second look as well. The CMC is more progressive and washed out, and it may indeed be right. The GFS amping things makes me slightly distrustful. That said, is has been placing SLPs and systems in the right spot...just giving them too much juice in the process.
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The CMC sends an ensuing hp a little further south(after the ice storm) and suppresses that buckle which forces that slp out to sea. Just can't tell if the GFS is moving to the CMC and this 12z GFS run is just a snapshot of its transition to a solution much further SE...OR if it has something. It really has wanted to put something into play during that time frame.
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The thing I am noticing is a buckle(some might call it a weak SER or even just a seasonal upward curve of the jet along the coast) right after that system comes through which causes the ice storm. The front moves slowly enough that it drags its heals in the GOM. That allows another wave to form and head northward. The GFS has a tendency to be amped, and this could be right in the wheelhouse of its own bias, but we'll see. Anyway, if something forms underneath that buckle, it is going to try to gain some latitude.
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The 12z CMC is going to try the same thing. It has that little 500mb vortex (much weaker) pushing north of the stalled front along the GOM. Whether it amounts to anything...not sure on the Canadian run.
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12z GFS....And there is another low right behind it.
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Great look, now we just need to see it get some support. Just looking at the configuration of the 500 pattern after this brief warm-up(warm-up for some....for others it is ice), supports a storm lifting almost due north out of the GOM. Now where the launch pad for that storm will be(genesis thereof...) is the million dollar question. The GFS is likely correcting towards other modeling. So, it is entirely possible the 18z run will be suppressed further due to that correction. That said, there have been some operationals which are taking a slightly inland track, but are weaker. This run pops a stronger slp. The synoptics are there for a storm to press northward. I would guess this storm will possibly originate somewhere between Mobile and say Ocala. For us that difference in origin is hammer time or a whiff.
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12z GFS...and there it is.
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It looks pretty locked in...I could be wrong. I could see the transition line between rain and ZR move around 50 miles or so. I think the threat to western areas is fairly dialed in. Now, if that line pushes into BNA...that is the question.
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As we watch what the 6z GFS had this morning in the LR...it might be worth again noting that the GFS nailed this storm in the d14-16 range. It would waffle around a lot in terms of placement, but just an impressive job by the GFS. It is simply uncanny how close that looks to what was placed in the banter thread about 2 weeks ago. Hats off to American modeling this winter.
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