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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, I should clarify....clippers are normally north of I-40.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Yep. Pacific driven pattern sometimes make confluence very tough IF the system doesn't originate in the northern stream. We need a clipper fest and not "thread the needle" phasing where there is nothing to prevent the system from sliding OTS. If we could simply get a legit cutter, that would help our chances.
  3. Carvers Gap
    For now, I am waiting on the warm-up that folks have been promising since late December. LOL and just kidding around. I went out to water the onions in our hoop house and cold frame, and the ground is frozen on the outside of each. Inside it is toasty warm. Season extenders are awesome if you garden. The MJO....Has any model been right this winter in regards to the MJO? It is in phase 2 now, and is pretty much stalled for a 8-12 days in 2 and 3. I wonder out loud if maybe we see a false warm-up yet again with just a ridge rolling in from the west after the 20th? I actually think we see warming after the 20th for an undetermined amount of time. Looks to me like a "cold, reload/warm east, and cold returns pattern" after the 20th. This colder pattern has certainly been slow to burn out. Maybe it will warm-up by spring.
  4. Carvers Gap
    The GFS at 12z is a swing and a miss. Again, modeling is having trouble with timing/location/amount/intensity of energy over the SE US and the incoming wave from the northern front. The 12z ICON(usually conservative) has a blizzard for the big cities in the NE. This is a highly complex set-up where timing matters. This is one which could sneak-up on folks. For now, I have set the usual 1" of snow bar. Anything higher is a bonus. This is a low probability event with a big ceiling if that makes any sense at all.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Complex...and I mean complex set-up. I don't trust any model at this point. With that much energy running around(and strong), one would think a winter storm in the east is plausible this weekend. Hopefully, modeling begins to reach some kind of loose consensus today.
  6. Carvers Gap
    18z GFS sort-of got back the clipper which feeds into the slp. NE areas of the forum benefit.
  7. Carvers Gap
    Spring is almost here for sure, or at least spring followed by a little more cold during early March...then it could get wild. It is teed-up for you severe folks. Just keep the hail from shredding my roof and cars. $30K is enough for one decade!
  8. Carvers Gap
    12z CMC with a different scenario. There is so much energy is in the pattern, it makes me think of this quote.... "Negative, Ghost Rider. The pattern is full." .
  9. Carvers Gap
    iMHO, that is a decent pass by the slp on the 12z GFS. It is still a "reach" but a little more like the overnight Euro. The GFS is having a multitude of problems with handling energy being in(or not in) the Southwest. If all of that comes out, there should be a storm.
  10. Carvers Gap
    That "should" be a phase if that trend continues.
  11. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS left almost no energy over the 4-Corners for this weekend's potential window. Until that model resolves that BIG problem, no solution can be trusted. MAJOR differences at 12z.
  12. Carvers Gap
    Just looking at the 6z GFS(12z is running now), it looks like bowling ball season is about to begin. Most of those are cutters, but all you need is one.
  13. Carvers Gap
    If it doesn't cut-off the energy in the southwest, that could have been a big system. If that Idaho energy is real...the story isn't written on this yet.
  14. Carvers Gap
    ...Maybe won't phase, but that is three vortices being juggled at 150. Crazy looking run. Doubt it looks even close to that next run. It does tell me that next weekend is not worked out yet.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Was about to say the same thing. Yeah, this is not going to be anything like the last three runs I don't think. Should phase...could even cut.
  16. Carvers Gap
    We had light snow last night for about an hour and flurries again this morning. We had a ton of rain prior to that. Streams are full. January finished AN for rainfall here. Feb has a chance to be AN as well with the past couple of days of rain(2.08”) now already in the books. Good start for precip here at TRI.
  17. Carvers Gap
    Definitely got some snow here. Just got a very light dusting. Snow lasted about an hour.
  18. Carvers Gap
    For folks on the northern Plateau, NE TN, SE KY, SW VA, and W NC...after the 11th there looks to be several weak northern-dominated systems which will need to be watched.
  19. Carvers Gap
    If I had to pick one place that looks like is going to score, it would be Arkansas. If you look at the storm track above, you score with the western track. I think after the 20th, we have a break as the MJO rotates through the warm phases...and then a reload during March. I think this is a year where a later winter storm is on the table after a faux spring bout of warmth. If El Nino is about to to take over, spring might not be a slam dunk for being base warm. After BN temps for January IMBY, I will be ready for spring by the end of the month. My first onions were planted in the hoop house this afternoon. Spring is almost here. I never discount February surprises.
  20. Carvers Gap
    I think the 10th-20th is a good window. When looking at the Euro Weeklies, I wouldn't be surprised to see the MJO make it back into colder phases(after leaving colder phases after mid-month) at some point around mid-March. It looks to me like the STJ fire lights at the end of the model colder winder for mid-Feb. Fingers crossed we can score something. Looks like we are back to BN for a 2-2.5 weeks beginning tomorrow.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Take a minute and look at the MJO phases above. Which one does that temp map look like?
  22. Carvers Gap
    12z EPS sure looks like a phase 1 or 2 of the MJO. No changes to my thoughts from yesterday.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, man. The 18z operational Euro looked decent before the model ended at 90. I totally skipped the operational and just looked the control for that earlier post..
  24. Carvers Gap
    18z Euro control backed precip up to the Apps. It has sneakily been trending NW today. Will have to make a big move during the next 36 hours on modeling in order to have a chance.
  25. Carvers Gap
    LOL. Great quote and WILD map!!!!
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