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Carvers Gap

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Everything posted by Carvers Gap

  1. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GDPS is a textbook track. Nice, nice look.
  2. Carvers Gap
    I would think there would be convection under some of that. Great find.
  3. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GEFS trended a bit SE with its snow axis.
  4. Carvers Gap
    IMHO, it is always safer about 95% of the time to go with lower totals at this range. That is an increase from yesterday. They have room to up the totals if 0z comes in bigger.
  5. Carvers Gap
    Just washed out a bit due to so many solutions, some of which are likely minor. If the storm continues to get bigger on future runs, the weaker solutions will be weeded out. That is a great look there. Thanks for that share.
  6. Carvers Gap
    That gets into Atlanta there, right?
  7. Carvers Gap
    The 3k/12K NAM, RGEM, and GFS have come in much stronger at 12z.
  8. Carvers Gap
    Here is the comparison to 6z. You could tell almost right off the bat that this was digging and would be stronger.
  9. Carvers Gap
    Some sleet in the mix on this. Just looking at the maps, it doesn't rain long. As soon as the rates pick-up, the cold crashes into the precip shield. So, you will see some differences in clown maps due to sleet/snow/zr algorithms.
  10. Carvers Gap
    That is just insane.
  11. Carvers Gap
    Chattanooga folks, some of these runs aren't bad for your area. The 12z RGEM and GFS look pretty good. Those numbers are giving TRI a run for their money.
  12. Carvers Gap
    This run is rocking...wow.
  13. Carvers Gap
    At 42 it is just hammering the Plateau.
  14. Carvers Gap
    Wherever this goes, it "should" be a hair stronger as it dug a bit more in the SW. May create a slightly slower solution.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Edit...flow looks more amplified.
  16. Carvers Gap
    I could be wrong, but looks slightly more amplified at 24 which would allow for a NW jog. I was wrong on this yesterday as the system just dug and then ejected more to the east than I would have thought.
  17. Carvers Gap
    The 12z GFS is rolling. Only 7 more runs before this is under way...so trends matter at this point....so we won't have to wait long before knowing where this run is heading.
  18. Carvers Gap
    American modeling has been ho-hum for sure. Seems like other modeling is a bit better. We are either going to find that non-American modeling was too flat or the NAM/GFS were too amped. I would slightly favor over-amped for American modeling, but only slightly.
  19. Carvers Gap
    With this storm deepening as it passes, I would not be surprised to see some incredible results on the Plateau.
  20. Carvers Gap
    12z RGEM looks good...
  21. Carvers Gap
    The 3K NAM looks far more realistic than the 12k. The 12k certainly looked like it had feedback issues. If it didn't, that is a blizzard.
  22. Carvers Gap
    Live by the NAM and die by the NAM. LOL. No idea which way that trends in actuality, but that would fit the seasonal trend. That said, the NAM is squirrelly as all get out...at this range. It just moved the snow axis about 250 miles. Will be interesting to see where other modeling ends up. It was quite a bit north(really wound up) and had energy transfer. We will see if that is the trend.
  23. Carvers Gap
    Complete with the EB @Holston_River_Rambler...perfectly placed
  24. Carvers Gap
    And the Northern Plateau looks optimal for this storm!
  25. Carvers Gap
    Knoxville looks good on overnight model runs. That doesn't surprise me given the set-up. That is a great track for Knoxville proper. On to 12z!
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