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Carvers Gap

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  1. Carvers Gap
    Finally re-upped my model subscription. This must be what it is like to land a plane during fog. Computer takes over and you hope it finds the runway. Anyway, seasonal outlooks (you all know the drill with seasonal modeling) look the opposite of the last several winters, and that is to be expected given El Nino climatology. Normal to BN heights build into the East during January and February. Jeff has covered the rest of summer really well. Fall, looks seasonal which would be excellent given the "extended summers" of the past few years. As I noted somewhere (maybe this thread), it would not surprise me to see snow flying in the mountains on-time - which means later in October and early November. I still think we see something like a false start to winter, and then December is warm-ish. January and February look to favor Nino weather - cool(not excessively cold) temps and lots of cloudy/rain days. This is kind of the opposite of Nina winters which feature fewer chances for precip but more cold interaction. This is more like more precip w/ marginal air masses - but sometimes we score just due to more pitches in the pitch count. Of note, pretty big signal across modeling for the front range of the Rockies and Plains to fry in regards to temps during August.
  2. Carvers Gap
    Really great stuff from the MA forum and worth a read. Nice animation of the SSTs along the equatorial Pacific. Short of it, the El Nino is modeled to be basin wide by the beginning of winter. Well worth a read. Click the light blue header.
  3. Carvers Gap
    This is how crazy this summer has been. We are now to the point that we can say this. The days are getting shorter. Football season is roughly a month and a half away. We can now see fall on the Weeklies(though I can't see them yet as I haven resubscribed - soon though). We can halfway have a decent conversation about even the lead up to winter if one is willing to ignore the micro-scale features and just look at macro stuff like SSTs/ENSO, QBO, PDO, and pick your favorite seasonal teleconnection. So, there is now this to add to the mix...the first, non glacial ski slopes in the northern hemisphere likely open in less than 90 days. This probably more banter, but considering that the forum normally has posts during summer(but way more posters this summer!...are we finally a 12mos forum!?), I am going to post it. Live life to the fullest! But “winter is coming.” At least in Finland. Levi, the nation’s largest ski area, and Ruka, another one of the largest, both plan to open on October 6th, 2023, the first non-glacial resorts in the northern hemisphere to do so. That’s less than three months away. https://snowbrains.com/first-non-glacial-resorts-open-90-days/?fbclid=IwAR1-XFF4RU53BvRAZlrhHupNMOXuta95e6B4UXCq6M1SiBRer2VhqckHpt8
  4. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, we don't want an east based El Nino in my opinion...agree. I "think" I read that it is due to shift to mid-basin and west by mid-late winter. We REALLY need the PDO to switch. IMHO, that may be a greatly underrated metric.
  5. Carvers Gap
    About an inch of rain BN for TRI right now. It is isn't "drought dry", but it is getting dry. Hopefully, Thursday into Saturday gets us even again. 90F count for TRI now stands at....two for the summer. It is warm, but man, a nice departure so far from last summer. Let's hope that this weather holds. We are just about to the hottest part of summer....let's see what it does.
  6. Carvers Gap
    Check out this PDO data set, and then look at some of our favorite winters - positive or rising PDO for many of our modern great winters. I do wonder if there is a connection between the drivers for the +PDO and the QBO? https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/
  7. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, oddly the current QBO has the potential to get winter started early which is waaaaay against Nino climatology. No idea if it can overcome that, but that drop is quick. We definitely don't want it to bottom out early. I do wonder if it maybe had something to do with that cool June that we just experienced - I have no knowledge about QBO and its correlation to summer temps. I just know that many of our really good winters had it going negative during mid to late fall. PDO is a big wild card as well as mentioned earlier. Need it to push towards neutral and into positive range - key for big winters in E TN.
  8. Carvers Gap
    81% humidity while out running this morning. Woof!
  9. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, the streak is over at TRI as well. We hit 90 for an hour or two yesterday. Given how oppressive last summer was, it still doesn't fell hot. It looks like we still have 4-5 more days until the pattern "moderates" next weekend. What we don't want to see is an established ridge over Bermuda. I don't see that yet. However, given the frequency of hurricanes during El Nino years later during summer, one has to think some sort of EC ridge establishes which will let tropical systems move towards coastal areas. But really, I don't have a crystal ball. Right now, the pattern appears to be BN air masses moving from Canada into the eastern 2/3 of the United States w/ intermittent strong AN air masses pushing out of the SW and/or Texas. But really, I can't complain at all about the current weather pattern. In 14-15, during winter this was the pattern during January and February. Replace MCS w/ northwest flow...it was glorious here. Easily, it was the most snow I have seen outside of 85-86. I doubt this continues into next winter, but......the pattern that we just exited(Mountain West winters) seemed to last for nearly 8 years.
  10. Carvers Gap
    Sitting at 73 here at midday. Lots of rain this morning. We had some thunder, but nothing like what points west did(John and Knoxville area).
  11. Carvers Gap
    Will it happen? TRI has gone a whopping 24 straight days with below normal temps. We have yet to hit 90 this year. As Wagner noted, if we stay below 90 today, the month of June is a shutout for 90 degree temps. It is going to be a close call today at TRI as to whether both of those streaks continue. An MCS is rolling through now at 5:50AM.
  12. Carvers Gap
    One more day without a 90F reading, and TRI will pitch a shutout. Temp tomorrow is supposed to be 89-90F....gonna be close. Warmest temp at TRI was on June 3rd with 89. IMO, we just dodged about four weeks of summer. In my book, that is a win. John, I like that kind of temperature bust.
  13. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, the heat is gonna be rippin' for the next few days. Seems like TX heat almost always finds a way into our area when it builds there. The good thing is that yet another anomalous cool air mass is in the 6-10 day range. But for now, the furnace is set on high. @Holston_River_Rambler, did we get a report on your trip out west?
  14. Carvers Gap
    Any pay sites have access to this yet OR is this the actually Euro? In other words, is there a ECMWF-IFS and also a ECMWF....or is it all under the same model? I wouldn't mind giving it a look if someone has free site access or if I can sign up for a free-trial at a pay site.
  15. Carvers Gap
    Summer of 2000...I think that is the year that it just stayed nice all summer long. Maybe hit 90 3x at TRI which is maybe the least I can remember. Looks like it was a weak La Nina year - normally those summers are HOT. Matthew, there is a year where the wx didn't fit the SST analog. I prob should check the PDO. Check that, I did just check the PDO. Looks like the PDO is about to shift to a negative phase which is good for us. That might correlate to cooler temps. The summer of 2000 had a descending and -PDO. As Jeff noted, the current PDO has been stubborn positive. If we go negative this month or next, maybe there is something there. That PDO set-up is likely the cause of the perpetual trough out west during the past several winters. As with any index, there aren't overly effective without others in combo. My best winter is 14-15 which was a strongly positive PDO. That said, some really nice -PDO winters on this grid. https://www.daculaweather.com/4_pdo_index.php But there is another summer that started off awesome like this one....and then the TX heat ridge built into TN(I think), and we roasted. I don't know if I want to look that one up! LOL.
  16. Carvers Gap
    Potential pattern adjustment upcoming....the TX heat ridge may send some heat eastward at times during the next 2-4 weeks. Cooler air masses should blunt the effects some, but summer is just about here in regards to temps. It wasn't going to be denied!
  17. Carvers Gap
  18. Carvers Gap
    @PowellVolz, you are getting credit for this (VQ post). Jax you mentioned this yesterday. Decently strong signal for severe wx tomorrow into Monday(looks like night time). This just came out this afternoon. Jax and Jeff, feel free to add content. I am just posting the graphic. I hate hail - especially very large hail. After 25K in damage several years ago(new roof, two cars mashed up), I want no part of that. May look at putting some cars in the parking garage if this is legit.
  19. Carvers Gap
    Evidently we are not the only ones....disco out of Great Falls, MT. We had 2 locations yesterday (June 21, 2023) break their low temperature record! Cut Bank whose previous record was 34°F in 1983. The new record is 31°F. Great Falls whose previous record was 37°F in 1942, 1995, and 1997. The new record is 33°F. Just looking at the years, I don't see a ton of commonalities. The Mountain West was really warm earlier this month. However, the parade of constant "cooler" air masses finally backed into their area. While those temps are not uncommon at higher elevations, those are cold for lower elevations out there. I once saw 5" of snow during mid-June in West Yellowstone. Rolled in off Lion's Head like one of those old dust storm picks from the Dust Bowl.
  20. Carvers Gap
    Thanks. Ah, yeah, I didn't click on the tweet and couldn't even see the temp scale. Might be a good year for a winter garden w/ cool weather plants! That is a torch if so. It has been trending strong it seems with each passing run. Seems to be the pattern of the past could of decade - Nina followed by super. Going to have to hope the QBO can counter balance this, and maybe produces some blocking. Any idea how the PDO looks? I "think" it should be flipping w/ the ENSO flip.
  21. Carvers Gap
    Is that weak to moderate or just steady moderate during fall?
  22. Carvers Gap
    Yeah, my tomatoes are loving this weather. Might be the best my plants have ever looked. They aren’t heat stressed or drought stricken. Disease struggles in this weather. Setting plenty of fruit. I put my peppers in raised beds. Normally they can suffer due to those beds getting too hot. Combo of raised beds and cool temps has been excellent. Even okra, which loves heat, is doing well, and that is changing how I view that plant’s tendencies. I always thought they loved heat. It must just be the longer days. 15 days straight of BN temps during June. I count that as a massive plus for summer no matter what comes next.
  23. Carvers Gap
    TRI is -3.8F BN for June. Honestly, it feels like late spring and not summer - dare I even say that. We are now running 13 straight days of BN temps. It has been cloudy all day today w/ periods of light rain. A great run of weather for June. Last June was a sauna. This is nearly the exact opposite. We will most assuredly have summer, but for every week we steal....just one less week of heat.
  24. Carvers Gap
    I feel the last few winters have actually been generally pretty textbook w/ La Nina. Last year had very few analogs as it was a third year Nina w/ a rising QBO(maybe one hand for analogs which fit that). The first two years of this past La Nina favored middle and west TN for cold and snow chances. E TN and the mountains had very few chances outside of early-mid December. Big time snow drought in some eastern areas of our forum currently (due to a persistent Nina pattern). Knoxville hasn't done terribly bad. Most of us know how tough middle and west TN have had it during the 2010s, so we don't complain. It has been nice to see those areas see winter chances of late. All of that has a lot to do with storm track. Also, the Mountain West(MT, ID, UT, WY) has been hammered w/ snow/cold during the past few winters - another textbook Nina pattern. Conversely, I am not sure the snows in California(cascades) fit La Nina. That seems more Nino...and those locals might have caught the initial waves of a transition to El Nino w/ the multiple atmospheric river events. The equatorial Pac began to warm, and they got hammered. John would know more about Mammoth since he watches that are regularly. But you are right, analogs are tricky. I know we have at least one excellent meteorologist on this forum who(I think) firmly states that each year is its own analog. There is a lot of truth to that. I use general SST trends as those are most accurate for seasonal forecasts at this range. Plus, I am an amateur. I get to make predictions for fun, and nobody's money is riding on those prognostications.
  25. Carvers Gap
    If they want mach 10, let's give'em mach 10.
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