87storms

Yea, I’m officially retired from tracking snow for the season. It’s a wrap. We’re at the point where a cold front drops it down to 40 lol. If it snows, cool, but it’s probably time to move on…at least east of the mountains. If we’re gonna have a dud of a snow season, at least it was during an ENSO phase where it’s somewhat expected.

Getting some vibes that the wind is finally starting to relax a bit. We do moderate wind pretty well at times, but that was an extended gradient.

I’ve got one eye out for the warm weather and one eye out for a Hail Mary, but I know one thing…2-3 consecutive days of chilly wind as part of the deal in getting periodic non-accumulating snow showers is challenging lol.

We got La Nina'd.

Now you're gonna make me do more research lol. The only thing I'd caution against is beating the base state drum too much because, as recently as last year, we had a few decent snowstorms in the region. They weren't widespread mecs/hecs, but compared to this winter, 21/22 is looking better than it felt at the time. I agree with the general idea, but I'm not sold on things changing that quickly. I think this winter was a perfect (non)storm of a dud...similar to how Feb '10 was about as close as it will get to Siberia around here.

...I guess it is supposed to be in the 40s to near 50 today, but I still think I'd take the 90s.

I'm starting to miss the SER...though I want to tread carefully because in July that can turn into mid-90s with subtropical humidity, which might still be more comfortable (or at least more conducive to outdoor activities) than 30s, dry, and windy lol.

Warm/wet, cold/dry... https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2023031506&fh=120 Next week's system either looks suppressed/fringed or we get a cutter from a low forming after the high retreats. It just seems like we need the Pacific to chill out before we can get a new, longer duration pattern that would actually work in our favor. Would also be nice to see a blocking pattern establish itself earlier next year so that enough cold can build over Canada. These transient high pressure systems haven't been working. And where are the clippers? Having those is an obvious sign that the northern stream is even capable of digging far enough south to provide us the cold and storm tracks we need.

That wind is cranking. Must be a nor’easter somewhere.

Just got the first decent gust here from the incoming wind event.

Just looked at the GFS...honestly, I'm game with that type of system even if it's just rain. Aside from not having much in the way of snow, we've been kinda lacking fun weather, at least aside from local tstorms. That type of qpf output is uncommon to the say least...the gulf and especially the Atlantic just gets unloaded on our region lol.

I feel like I could live in the northeast for the sake of the outdoors/new trails to explore/not having to track a rain/snow line on the reg, etc...but not sure how I'd feel about 4-5 month long winters. I'm usually a 3 month season type of dude.

I'm right there with ya. Drove through a few non-accumulating snowshowers from Frederick to Bethesda. We're better than this lol. It's legitimate snowstorm or Spring for me at this point.

March 23 is the start of Sweet 16, to give you an idea of how far away that is.

I don't think the cost/benefit of getting hyped over a 5 day range is worth it at this point, let alone 7-10+ days. We're entering the portion of climo where a 850 warm nose can show up within 24 hrs after a week of tracking. I'd be interested if I was in the higher elevations and I'd like to see a storm before the season concludes, but too much needs to go right once we get past mid-March to get invested. Average high temp is approaching 55 degrees lol.

I think part of what's going on is this idea that we can outforecast the models. Looking for potential is one thing...wishcasting (which was prevalent for several days in this thread) is...well, it's wishcasting lol.

Snow tv has commenced. Little bit of radar/rate lag here, maybe due to the easterly component to the wind, but these might actually be the best dendrites of the season so far. Too bad it's only gonna last about 15 mins. Radar has the look of a system that isn't tracking where we want it.

Daytime snow gets bonus points.

Without any arctic airmass in sight, we usually need a favorable H5 track. I don't think it's absolutely necessary for an ULL to track under/over our location, but without having sufficient cold in place, we need to be on the colder side of the upper levels or it's a dice roll...and it's even a dice roll with precip as I think that introduces the potential for dry slotting. I'm still learning...I could have some of these details wrong, but long story short, we usually need the northern stream to dig further and/or phase earlier. With that said...both waves are close enough for at least snow tv, so might as well track 'em.

You forecasting for Brooklyn or DC? Lol. The potential is there and the Euro surface is inspiring, but verbatim that looks like a setup where the SS runs out ahead and we get a Miller B late developer. Maybe Bmore could cash in if things pop quick enough...but that's a big maybe with that kind of setup. I don't recall closed lows in the GL or upper Midwest being a good thing for the DMV...we really need that northern stream to dig further. In fact, one thing that's been absent for a while is getting a clipper to dig far enough south to impact our region.

lol, that was Rev, not me, but that's the type of snowstorm we need in this forum.

Now that's a snowstorm. I'm done with the cartoppers. I'm gonna see what happens with that follow-up wave. I may end up chasing that one if it ends up being a late forming Miller B.

Seems like such an unusual setup, but that hp to the north on the Euro looks pretty legit, so maybe we don't need the typical "H5 track under us" this time as much as we normally would.

I mean, needing the jet stream to be further north in mid-March is better than needing cold. Precip is always easier to weasel our way into.

Yea, the gom looks closed for business on this run, but it’s early in the game.