cbmclean

I actually have a working theory about it. The GFS/GEFS and Canadian/GEPS have long been noted to have cold bias in the LR. So then you can hypothesize that if they are consistently seeing a crappy pattern in the LR, then that means there must be a VERY strong warm signal in reality. An interesting hypothesis that I would love to investigate after I win the lottery.

So true. You can either laugh or cry...or move to Maine as someone suggested.

For some reason my perception is that crappy patterns tend to verify better in the LR than good ones. Not sure if there is any objective reality to that or if it is just selection bias. Guess what I am trying to say is, I am still worried.

We are in the middle of a lights-out, Pac puke pattern which was foreseen by the EPS two weeks ago. The GEFS/GEPS caught on shortly thereafter. They were 100% on target 10+ days out. So I have to disagree with your assessment.

Interestingly, the NW third or so of NC (north and west of I-40/85) has been on a bit of streak the last 3 years or so. I'd say quite a few places are maybe 150% climo in that region for the last 3 years. I may have hit climo on December 9 of last year (no boos please) even though I don't think I saw another flake the rest of the winter. Also the difference between mean climo and median climo may be even more important for us than for you guys. Lots of years in the lowlands get nothing but a trace, but the occasional 4 - 12" events can really skew the mean.

Alright looks like it's time to recancel January. Might be re-uncanceled tomorrow. Or not.

wait what?

No.

Hopefully not the scene with the chainsaw.

PV bouncing around in all the wrong places?

Well our two-day-long emotional high appears to be over. Back to the despair zone.

PSU should be happy.

The problem with that is I have seen so many times when a team rests it's starters the last week and then has a bye, and they come out super rusty in the divisionals.

I know, I was just being silly since he specifically said not to head to the bridges.

I'm heading for a bridge. PSU cancelled winter.

Man look at that triangle of doom in West Kansas.

Won't gave access to the models for a bit. GEP look good?

Hey Bob, I notice that this came from weatherBELL. Are you a longtime member? Is it worth the price?

Man, when they opened the January thread, they really brought the mojo.

Gotta love how it shows sleet/zr in the gulf of Mexico. 1899 redux. I'm sure it will happen.

Boo, hiss. ETA: This is definitely banter. Is there a way to move one's own post to another thread?

My first interpretation is that it appears to have no clue. I am guessing the green line is the Ensemble mean. Individual members are showing it emerge literally everywhere.

I was completely unaware of this phenomenon. I haven't noticed anything consistent over the last 15 years, except general warmth. Any idea on what's behind it?

Well the Euro sniffed out the pac puke 15+ out. This should balance the karma. On a serious note, I can't see the TPV in that shot. Where did it go?

Yeah, I should have put it in banter to begin with. We are doing pretty well keeping the main thread streamlined. I remember him at Accuweather. I used to like Accuweather but it really seems to have gone down-hill and traded usability for flashy site design. Same crap happened to weatherunderground. I didn't realize JB was weatherbell. I have never really considered a pay service since it seems everything I need for my level I can get for free here or from tropical tidbits.