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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    IDK, maybe? This doesn't seem like that kind of storm though. I think the early March 2018 storms had big differences but that was mainly due to marginal surface temps not situations where we might have sleet or the dryslot.
  2. jm1220
    I noticed that and LOLed. Upton deserves big props if something like that happens but more likely the difference will be a few inches not 9-10.
  3. jm1220
    Seems like they have a hard time placing the surface low too. As it gets up here, models seem to have the surface low from Baltimore to off Ocean City.
  4. jm1220
    Like a fire burning through a forest, the fire diminishes eventually in one spot and moves on. Germany with over 800 deaths today-they're in some trouble. Proportionally for us that would be well over 3000 deaths. Deaths in other western European countries are decreasing now other than Italy and the UK to an extent.
  5. jm1220
    Upton's point and click-lol. Maybe an inch at Captree-a 30 minute drive from me and about 15 miles away. Here, "most likely" snow is at 11" and point/click has 8-14". Long Beach "most likely" is 3" and JFK 10 miles away 11". Wonder why NW Suffolk wasn't included in the warning then? My guess for my backyard is still 6-7" of snow and gunk. Hopefully I'm being conservative. I can see it being a few inches if these awful NAM runs are right, or if it's a miracle like this Euro run seems to be, could be 12".
  6. jm1220
    Again, wondering how real that back-end snow is. We would need a pretty vigorous upper air low pivoting east to really keep that snow area intact. I'm still thinking much more will come from the initial thump and hoping the dryslot/mix can be minimized near the city.
  7. jm1220
    This is different because of the blocking setup in place, but it was clear for days that the strong incoming trough would try to make this storm now hug or cut and we would need the confluence to force an east turn.
  8. jm1220
    What we’re looking for in terms of the dryslot is the 700mb low track not the surface.
  9. jm1220
    Means we're essentially right on the line and they don't know what will happen lol. My point/click still says 8-14" though. Jackpot Long Beach only around an inch.
  10. jm1220
    I will say for whatever it's worth the GFS doesn't show the same warm nose the NAM has at 36hr on the soundings. Strange with a fairly strong southerly wind at 700-750mb. The 700 low does take a slightly better track on the gfs than the NAM.
  11. jm1220
    Has a crazy enhanced precip area at around 9z come through that I guess would be snow as the low starts departing. The NAM had something similar but less intense. That would be the CCB I'm guessing. Lot of haves/have nots from banding inland it seems, lots of enhanced and shaft zones.
  12. jm1220
    To me looked like the 700 low tracked from NW of Philly to about over NYC? I guess call it a win that this doesn't look it came any further NW from 12z.
  13. jm1220
    Over Dover, DE at hr 36 is east?
  14. jm1220
    Watch still in effect here for 3-10". Quite the range, pretty much how I see it. Covers all of Suffolk County so 3" is probably the twin forks, 6" or so here.
  15. jm1220
    RGEM apparently still quite warm/tucked in for 18z run today.
  16. jm1220
    1/27/11 had an insane 500mb cutoff low that took a perfect track to nail us, and the initial batch of WAA snow shut off before the mid level warmth got here. It's a perfect example of the precip shutting off when the mid level warmth was here but the massive closed low crushed us that night. This won't be anything like that. The mid level low is actually deamplifying as it comes east.
  17. jm1220
    Surface wind direction also isn't great on the NAM for a time from the city east. At 6z the low center is over DE Bay and winds are coming in from the ENE. That could drive parts of LI above freezing so could actually mean some rain. Something of a coastal front develops that gets Montauk to around 42F at 9z. This run is a bit of improvement but more work needed.
  18. jm1220
    Often the models are too warm near the ground and actually under-do the mid level warmth. The NAM shows a strong closed 700 low, that will bring in the warmth for sure.
  19. jm1220
    Looking at soundings, by 3z many of us near the city could start changing to sleet. Warm nose comes in at 800-850mb and looks marginal there, howling SE wind coming in as well at that level. By 6z a sharp warm nose comes in at about 750mb and would certainly be sleet. But at that point not much may be falling. By 9z the warm nose recedes and column is below freezing except the surface which soundings have at about 32. Without this CCB feature behind the low it would probably be 3-6" in and near the city. Various warm layers start to mess things up fairly early. We need a better trend with the mid level lows.
  20. jm1220
    These CCB bands are modeled so often but many times don't happen. It does have a vigorous 500 and 700mb low which close off for a time so I guess I could see that somewhere.
  21. jm1220
    NAM is better but still not great or a huge hit for the city. Might be a start for better trends but we'll see. 700mb low still tracks over E PA and N NJ which brings mid level warm air in. Also drying out by 6z after initial thump. It does track a little south of 12z however which was over Port Jervis. We really want that tracking south of us if possible. Just north of that track will have the heaviest snow.
  22. jm1220
    It’ll be real somewhere for sure. The strong mid level lows mean there’ll be a huge front end hit of snow where we can make it happen but also dry air circulates in behind it.
  23. jm1220
    Eventually it will when it encounters the block/confluence. Better call is it has to before we’re flooded with warm mid level air and a dryslot.
  24. jm1220
    I’d say the odds of a foot in Central Park are under 30%. If I had to say a number there I’d say 7” of snow and junk mixed.
  25. jm1220
    For it to be a blizzard you need the conditions for 3 consecutive hours. Probably won’t happen since the most intense winds might correlate with the dryslot or mixing.
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