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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    And it's obviously way overdone with that heavy snow area in E PA. It'll be a great place to be but there won't be 47" in Allentown. It's typical in miller Bs that the development is a little delayed in the end and more progressive. Usually that burns NYC and benefits Boston but this time it's exactly what we need.
  2. jm1220
    I might run out of shoes after I have to eat them all.
  3. jm1220
    Way better than the last 2 RGEM runs. DC/Baltimore won't be happy but I can't think of a miller B like this which jackpotted that region or any miller B for that matter.
  4. jm1220
    Good, an improvement from that model was all I needed to see. Would be best if the 700mb low ticked east a little more but there's time for that.
  5. jm1220
    Yep, as snowgoose said there'll be snow showers and some bands around that could add 1-2" maybe if lucky on Tue.
  6. jm1220
    Not tremendously, I'd say it's noise. Hopefully we're in consensus time where the tucked models can come east/develop a bit later and the models like NAM tick west a little.
  7. jm1220
    PivotalWeather is pretty good. This is the sounding for my location at 21z Mon on the 0z NAM.
  8. jm1220
    Even the RGEM and tucked models going east a little would be a great outcome for all of us other than the twin forks. The GFSv16 consistency is encouraging too, I don't see both of these flopping totally on their face this close in. The old GFS though I'm essentially disregarding.
  9. jm1220
    I think so but Jan 2016 was a different kind of storm than this one. We're in the range now where hopefully the NAM has a clue though. It's not 72-84 hours out anymore where it's usually discounted. Not sure how useful these are yet but the SREFs seemed pretty warm at 21z but sometimes the NMM/ARW models they run on are too amped.
  10. jm1220
    Hopefully the RGEM in 30min ticks east again, if so the NAM may be onto something here.
  11. jm1220
  12. jm1220
    It's awesome but for now have to treat it as wx porn unless the foreign models that have it more tucked jump on.
  13. jm1220
    NAM's a monster/crippler again. This is my favorite panel. This sits over NYC/Long Island for several hours. That would be 3"/hr snow in that band.
  14. jm1220
    Oh definitely, I can see some people getting 20". I just don't think it'll be the city in this setup. It'll be a place maybe near I-84 where ratios are good and there's plenty of moisture. snywx, sussexcountyobs, ForestHillWx, where you are will be some of the best spots.
  15. jm1220
    Yes and pan-seared 5 minutes on each side.
  16. jm1220
    For the City I'd say 9-12" with 9" in the Rockaways/JFK and 12" in the Bronx. That's about what consensus is. These insane model outputs aren't happening. I'd be thrilled but I'll eat my shoe if I get the 24" the new GFS shows.
  17. jm1220
    The strong east flow's a blessing and curse. Longitude west actually helps us this time. But we don't want a low stalling out just off Atlantic City or it's our turn sooner or later too.
  18. jm1220
    Usually the snow begins sooner than expected with these. Probably won't start for most of us until tomorrow overnight.
  19. jm1220
    NAM did very well with the Dec event. Euro and GFS (old version) were too cold.
  20. jm1220
    I'm at about 9" for the season now, if this can get me to over 20" I'd be thrilled.
  21. jm1220
    Twin forks could be higher than I have (4-7") if the front end overproduces but later on it looks pretty crappy there with the east flow/warm air that takes a good while longer to get close to the city.
  22. jm1220
    It's essentially consensus at this point. NAM/GFSv16 are awesome but those amounts aren't happening here. Amped/warm usually wins out in the end. And it's hard to forecast big time amounts when you're relying on a huge burst at the beginning. Ratios won't be ideal and oftentimes the dryslot comes in earlier than expected like 12/17. That could've been a foot here if the front end hung on for longer but it shredded up and warm air took over. Hopefully this will be colder than that one was but I'd say 80-90% chance there's at least some rain east of the city. Hopefully that happens when the dryslot is overhead and little would be falling anyway.
  23. jm1220
    You'd probably get what Middletown would, so 17-18". You look to be in an awesome spot.
  24. jm1220
    My call for now: Central Park: 11" White Plains: 14" Danbury: 15" JFK: 9" Newark: 12" Middletown, NY: 17" Morristown, NJ: 16" Bridgeport: 12" Long Beach: 8" Islip: 9" Montauk: 4" Asbury Park: 4" Me/PSV88/NorthShoreWX: 11"
  25. jm1220
    At this point you're right, the outcome's fine here and the mix happens when the precip lightens up but if we keep this trend we'll start seeing rain eat into the front end burst too. Luckily we have such a cold airmass to start which should at least make for a very nice event for everyone.
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