jm1220

Hard pressed to call any of what it's making its way through now as land, really. Really won't be until it's N of New Orleans.

Well it certainly doesn’t look like New Orleans ends up west of the eye. Headed NNE and still possible the eastern eyewall comes through. Certainly St Bernard/Slidell look to get it.

Not good either way since the land south of them is just swamps with smaller lakes/rivers like you said. Hopefully it works out.

I would think it’s not coming from the worst direction for N.O. which would be NW or NNW to pile the water up the Mississippi and Lake Borgne/Pontchartrain most effectively. The NNE direction would certainly funnel water in but maybe not as much. Also it hasn’t had the longest time to build up a surge. But it’ll be a very rough evening regardless.

New Orleans in for a direct hit. Luckily for them this wasn’t earlier in the summer when this could’ve made a run at near cat 5 like Laura.

Yikes. New Orleans in for a rough few hours. Hopefully the surge impacts aren’t too severe.

Weaker storm-less cold air and dynamics from heavy precip.

Winter isn’t over because of snow in October. We’re also forgetting really good winters where there was early snow and cold like in 2002 (granted that was an El Niño).

France over 40k cases today (equivalent here of over 200k cases). Could get much worse here and probably will. Probably not entirely a coincidence that the cold weather so far has been focused over the northern Plains and Rockies, which is where the worst of the new outbreak is. Eventually it will come East. Hopefully all this tracking and tracing NY has put into place ends up being worth something in a couple months.

We’re overdue for a lousy stretch of winters, and the Nina background state in general is lousy for this area. We’ve gotten used to being spoiled. Our one real hope IMO is the NAO developing blocking every once in a while which can keep the SE ridge in check, and that happening in Dec. If we don’t see that the SE ridge dominates and we see constant lake cutters. If we make it to normal snow somehow this season I’d consider that a big win. Should be a huge winter for the upper Midwest, Rockies and NNE.

This year being moderate to maybe strong Nina, probably many more obs like this to come for them this winter. Not really luck, it’s a pattern that sticks the trough in the west which occurs all the time in Ninas.

And only 258 hours away!

Yep, honestly a warm winter this year wouldn’t be a bad thing (although in a Nina the cold is usually just dislocated west). But like most Ninas we will have to hope the snow happens in December and we get some help from the NAO. If not it’s a repeat of last year with an endless cutter parade.

Rain is blossoming pretty well currently, should be wet from this area on east for the next few hours at least. This system overall is affecting everyone just about equally-the back edge of this seems to be about exactly where the first batch today ended.

Probably 0.10” here so far as this batch goes west of us over NJ and NYC. Hopefully the next batch can catch us up and we don’t get the split-shaft with it going east of here.

Every winter from here on out won’t be warm and snow unlikely. That’s ridiculous. We were due for a lousy stretch of winters after so many above normal since 2000. We’ve had many stretches like this in the past-much of the 1980s and late 1990s were awful. I’m hopeful we somehow make it to normal but I’m not optimistic for this season either. Doesn’t mean we’re somehow shut out permanently. If the NAO/AO cooperate, PNA, EPO etc we can be very snowy.

Well ok

We need a snowy December in a Nina here or it’ll be a bust. The SE ridge inevitably comes back in Jan into Feb. Even 10-11 quieted down after the late Jan snow event. In 17-18 we lucked out with the March events but we can’t count on that for sure. The background state becoming more and more Nina like over the last decade (with a couple of exceptions) was destined to bite us eventually. There are some ways we can luck out but we also need help from the NAO to keep the ridge at bay. If we don’t have that on our side either it’ll be another lousy winter. I’m not too excited for this winter but even normal snow is a solid improvement.

Was a good steady rain for the early part of the day in Long Beach.

The high’s dominating everything and crushing the rain south.

The big high looks to be winning out. Why can’t this ever happen in the winter with SWFEs....

Another Nina-yeah, likely (we've essentially been in a Nina background state for over a decade other than the super Nino 15-16 which it took the super Nino to snap the Nina for that one season). Hopefully we can get some other factors like the MJO which wrecked our last 2 winters and NAO to help out and not have every storm be a cutter. 10-11 is an example of how the NAO can salvage a Nina winter but that was an extreme example. I'd be thrilled if we make it to average snow or a little better, like how 12-13 was generally. Lot of downside though if the MJO stays in phase 4-6 again and the NAO/AO Is mostly positive. The hyper-roaring Pacific jet flooding the US with mild garbage is never good either. N New England/Midwest/West favored.

Yikes. Alexandria, LA with just over 7.5" rain so far.

The pressure gradient will probably help. NAM has 30-40mph winds near the coast as it moves in, enough for a wind advisory. Quite winter-like, you can even see the cold air damming from the high-baggy isobars. Of course it won't be cold enough for snow, but inland it might be in the 40s for the storm. 2-3 months from now it would be snow/ice to rain for the coast and a wintry mess inland deal.

The S/W and rain moving in resembles a SWFE winter event. We even have the big high NE of us as an overrunning setup.