jm1220

Yup. Cool tracking it, and how accurate it is (it really is accurate). Looks like it's in Melville, Deer Park area now. Inching its way south in Nassau down to around Valley Stream.

Mostly snow here. Still a little sleet.

Sleet line is south of Staten Island, around New Brunswick area. Most of NYC is snow except Rockaways. Poster from the Bronx said almost an inch already.

Residual warm mid level air that should get mixed out as heavier precip comes in. The very south shore was always a worry for hanging onto warm air at the surface or mid levels longer. As the low gets going offshore, that should be gone as well but it's always a question how long it lingers. Toms River is rain, where the yellow, green line on dual pol is where it's sleet. Below that is rain, and it's the same color as north of the line. On Long Island on Upton radar you can also start to see it settle south on the north shore now. Most of Nassau and my area in Suffolk is still sleet by that radar.

Sleet here too with a mangled flake or two. We should be snowing soon, sleet line is sinking south from the sound and also coming east from the city.

Sleet line per dual pol looks to have settled just south of Staten Island, a line from Sandy Hook to East Brunswick and west from there.

I agree. It's making good progress NE, and HRRR/RAP are keeping it going for a while. By the time it gets to Boston may be a different story, but the same models have been bringing the enhancement back a little in SE MA. Snow coming down good after an initial brief period of sleet in NYC. Hopefully this is one where many of us shafted ones can win at least a little.

Sleet/snow grains just started here.

It's going to settle south to a point, hopefully it's just south of the beach. Good sign that the short term models seem to be right in making the column cold enough to keep the period of sleet brief.

Too early to say that when the relevant system is just affecting California now and this current system which will affect how far SE the baroclinic zone goes is just moving in now. I could see a trend back NW tomorrow after everything is sampled correctly. But maybe it keeps going SE, who knows.

According to SNE thread, Euro went SE from last run. Heaviest snow roughly along I-95.

Dual pol suggests that precip starts as sleet but once it gets going it changes to snow. Sleet line is sinking SE a little as it comes in. Would make sense that the column cools with onset of precip.

I'm on team "stuff circled below", but crazy how much this is a nowcast event with the ludicrous shifts within 24 hours. And then we have the next event under 48 hours out subject to the same shifts based on this event. Glad I'm not doing this for a living tonight. Lots of egg about to be splattered on someone's face.

A good site to follow from here on: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0C-1-12 The yellow between the two purple-colored areas is sleet. The northern purple area is snow, the southern one rain.

Maybe wishful thinking but the last HRRR/RAP run got a bit more potent further north. The radar does look encouraging coming into this area at least. Hopefully the sleet stops advancing-the same models change it over to snow when it gets going around NYC. But 0.5-1 degree too cold at 850 and it's mostly pellets.

Probably good news for us. Soundings are good for snow on latest HRRR but really marginal, i.e. off a half to 1 degree too cold at 800-850, it's sleet for a good while instead of snow. It's been pretty insistent on the last few runs that it's snow when the heavier rates come in. Precip shield looks good so far. Fingers crossed for a few inches.

Definitely wasn't what I was expecting-the big SE trend on the Sun night storm. Still time to inch its way back NW. But it's undeniable at this point.

If anyone's going to score from this, I'd think your area would be it, and then east toward Plymouth and the upper Cape. Hoping to get something decent down here, short range models other than the NAM are cold enough for a few inches. This winter, whatever falls is gladly taken.

RAP if anything looks cooler than the HRRR. Unfortunately it seems to shift things almost due east once snow gets into CT and Boston area gets shafted.

HRRR still looks cooler and switches many over to snow for a while, but it does have a warm nose come in and there's a period of sleet. Dynamics and lift will likely determine how it goes-if it never really gets going, a lot of it will probably be sleet or even sleet/rain because the warm mid levels win out, if heavy rates do happen the warm air gets overcome and many flip over to snow and get a few/several inches.

The Nam got a little warmer. Dynamics seem slower to get going and a lot of what falls around the city and coast seems to be sleet or sleet/rain mix because the column doesn't cool enough. To me it's nowcasting and let's see what happens time.

Yeah, also a possibility. Surface temps on the south shore may be just over freezing to start the event and result in it being rain, but it gets colder as the storm goes on. I remember Jan 2004 being a lot of sleet for hours, and 2/8/13 also killing the extreme south shore with sleet whiile it snowed for hours on the north shore. It's what stopped everyone on LI from reaching 18-20"+. Those totals were on the north shore where it was almost all snow and further east where the death band set up.

It's looking like one of those events where there could be a big difference between north and south shore-cold air looks marginal in general but most models are just cold enough north of the LIE to have a good chunk of it be wet snow. South of there could fight back and forth or have problems accumulating. I'm becoming more optimistic that my area sees at least 2-3". If I was in Long Beach still I'd be thinking a lot of it's rain.

I'm finally ready to be somewhat bullish at least for northern areas of NYC and LI. The Nam and to lesser extent the Euro going just a hair colder as the precip gets intense later tonight, at least enough to tip it maybe just cold enough for snow, is encouraging. It'll be interesting to see how far SE the cold air can make it with the heavier precip rates-whether it makes it down to the south shore. Could be a system where there's a notable difference between north of the Northern State and south of Sunrise Highway. Could easily be a few inches if the cold gets in soon enough with the heavy precip. Hopefully this can finally be a storm where it matters that I moved here from LB.

Better to expect little and be surprised on the high end than vice versa. It’s a much tighter rope getting this one to work out down here than over SNE. We need the low to develop sooner so the cold air can crash down, and it stay far enough SE to not allow warm mid level air in. The safe bet is for mostly rain around the city and coast. If the Euro goes notably cooler at 12z it may be time to bite on something better.