jm1220

If the storm does slow down as it comes up here and pivots around, it wouldn't make landfall as a hurricane. It would probably do so as a 50-60mph tropical storm that would be known for coastal flooding due to it likely expanding its size by then and rain. The 12z GFS panels show that kind of wind when it would make it up here. It would pull in lots of cooler water quick which would weaken it. The only way it would really maintain strength is if it moves N or NW fast into the area as it strengthened where waters are warm enough or it phases into the trough somehow which is how Sandy strengthened Perfect Storm 1991 style and pivoted NW. This is no 1938-redux or anything like that. It could be pretty disruptive but not catastrophic like Sandy. Those comparisons should be thrown out.

Some serious heavy rain in central PA. Altoona airport reporting 2.16” rain in an hour. Feeder bands combining with upslope on the SE flow.

It’s time to pay attention I think but minor changes in the high/low orientation will affect greatly how it tracks. Could easily shift back to out to sea if the upper high over E Canada weakens or the trough becomes more of a kicker.

The WAR which makes almost every system go further west than expected up here.

I’m in Long Beach today and it was disgusting here too. I’m sure not as hot as my place but higher humidity might even it up. It’s that time of year.

My closest station up to 96 now. Would be hottest of the summer here.

94 now.

93 here.

Light rain with thunder here.

92 here as well. Back to disgusting/gross. Heat warning definitely warranted.

Again color me stunned, STUNNED. I’m having the usual few raindrops now that make it this distance east from the daily T-storm blowups in NJ. Yesterday’s was briefly light to moderate in my backyard and early this morning we had a brief downpour.

Color me stunned, STUNNED that strong T-storms are over Manhattan, Westchester and NE NJ again.

If we get our 40” snow season and we have 1-2 degrees above average I’m fine with it.

88 for the high here today. Not quite disgusting yet but definitely feeling the humidity again.

Essentially no temps over 100 in the urban corridor in TX this summer which is quite unusual. It’s also been wet when this time of year typically gets dry other than tropical systems there. Not a fan of the humidity that’s coming back regardless of the actual temps which might not be as hot as we thought.

Yup. Probably lots of 88/74 type conditions here. Upton might be right on the money minimizing the big heat east of NYC anyway.

Back to the way summers typically are near the coast.

Yep, trends are east this morning. Might just be the twin forks really.

These are consistently too hot. There won’t be 8 straight over 100 degree days in NYC.

It's west though from 0z. The WAR has something to say about this too. Probably a good soaking for especially the city and east upcoming.

The severe T-storm activity and associated convection went south of where most models seemed to have it. Kudos to the SPC for citing the area SW of NYC for the best shot at severe. Wasn’t too much of a surprise it took the decent rain with it.

Yep. Maybe some light rain that’s it so far.

Just missed my area to the west. Radar has possibly 4” in the Roslyn area by the LIE.

Big difference as usual between our area and the south shore. Many days so far where we’re roasting near or over 90 but Captree’s in the mid 70s.

Hail incoming to JFK Airport from the looks of it.