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jm1220

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Everything posted by jm1220

  1. jm1220
    Yet another Midwest storm. It’s essentially a Nina winter with a more messed up presentation and same tendency to torch and drive the SE ridge. Despite what models a few days out say, that’s the overall pattern and they correct to it until the PNA changes or we see improvements to the NAO.
  2. jm1220
    The problem seems to be one we face constantly where the primary stays alive too long and drives warm air in ahead of it, the upper low tracks too far north and the coastal low tracks inland, and takes forever to take over. That's what drives warm air so far north. Doesn't look like it's all snow unless you're way north in upstate NY or in the midwest.
  3. jm1220
    Southern VT won't be safe either if the warmer models are right. NAM drives warm air right into ME.
  4. jm1220
    So much for being giddy.
  5. jm1220
    Like I said I’m hopeful lol. So far so good for a nice event for you guys at least. I just learned to believe it when I see it. I lived through many false alarms there haha.
  6. jm1220
    I don’t know about giddy. Hopeful-sure. Lots can still go wrong. The late transfer issue is the biggest risk. It can still pretty easily go to a NE PA and upstate NY special.
  7. jm1220
    The late transfer is always a concern for snow in central PA. I-90 has been the favored area for these kind of systems (not saying it happens here). It’s why sometimes I call central PA the Middle Finger because of how it gets skipped over from these late/too far north transfers. There have been winters pretty recently where the Middle Finger was in full effect.
  8. jm1220
    Yep. It really hasn’t been a good season for anyone so far in the NE except for some hard hit by the early Dec storm and Maine. That area is at 25% or less what they average for the winter.
  9. jm1220
    And 95-96 wasn’t wall to wall cold. We had the epic January thaw that caused massive flooding in PA and the DC area which got slammed in the 1/7 blizzard and 1/12 storm. Some places had 3 feet of snow that torch melted.
  10. jm1220
    I flew down to FL today (stuck 90mins extra when the snow started at JFK), so of course this was going to do well for us. Good to see a decent event for once this winter.
  11. jm1220
    Not surprising given the mid level lows tracking NW if you. Unfortunately that’s a dead giveaway for lots of sleet.
  12. jm1220
    Euro has Rt 22 as perhaps the line where sleet really cuts down totals-UNV 5.0" this run (NW PA up to 8"), AOO about 3", JST a little over 1". Tomorrow should be fun for you guys, hopefully the mid levels aren't cooked too early but I remember all the bad reminders I lived through in State College where the sleet line stopped for nothing. If it comes in heavy hopefully it gets held off. South of the Turnpike looks mostly like an ice (sleet) event of some type regardless.
  13. jm1220
    North/South shore gradient seems to be a theme on models today. Definitely feasible-southerly winds are a kiss of death a lot sooner on Captree than Sunken Meadow. It eventually cooks both but the extra 90 mins or so could mean an additional 1-2" if it's during heavy precip.
  14. jm1220
    You mean OKX=Upton more than Boston? I very much doubt it unless it really does come in like a wall down here. We run the risk of the fairly typical in SWFE hour long moderate snow burst followed by mini dryslot where we warm up on southerly winds then white rain/rain/slop when the real stuff comes in. OKX is pretty far east in Suffolk County, susceptible to the torch on south winds and will warm up fast if that lull happens. If you mean NYC it could happen if that precip min is real in eastern Mass. I think a chunk of the storm is rain down here but we have more precip overall. The southerly winds will eventually win out even with this airmass, it could spike up to 40 for a while. It could be a lousy inch or so if the lull happens or it really could be 3-4" if it pounds for a few hours and the warmth can be held off. Our max down here is 3-4" pretty sure. At least it shouldn't be a long enough period of rain to wash it all away but it'll still be quite forgettable. BOS will still be ahead of us in the seasonal snow totals anyway regardless. Lousy winter all around though so far.
  15. jm1220
    The NAM shows this risk-3k and 12k. There's a good initial burst of snow at 1-3pm, but it may lead to a mini dry slot after that for a couple hours since (another feature of SWFEs often around here), the main WAA shoots NW of us and we're left waiting for the meat of the precip around dusk, when it may be marginal for snow near the city and coast due to it being dry and there's that couple of hours for southerly flow to warm everything up. It may happen or may not but it's a possibility. If it's really a solid wall of snow that comes into NYC, it'll hold off the warming at the surface and there won't be the couple hour period with showery stuff.
  16. jm1220
    Seems like the initial burst then long lull could be an issue too. Time to warm everything up on S winds in the showery precip, then the meat of it is rain or mix. Again just seems like so much could go wrong that it’s foolish to predict over 3” in NYC.
  17. jm1220
    Congrats Glen Cove Rd/Clinton Rd/Grand Ave Corridor
  18. jm1220
    I don’t think anyone in the city other than maybe parts of the Bronx get over 3”. They might as well as some hilly parts of Nassau and N Suffolk. Otherwise I think it’s generally 1-3”. More than this should really be reserved for places N/W.
  19. jm1220
    The cold dry air in place is the saving grace. Too bad the snow couldn’t be faster getting here, because this airmass is hauling out of here as fast as it came in, and the little delays mean a lot.
  20. jm1220
    Too early to rule out sleet or rain cutting back on accums in the city. What I think is helping is that winds may come out of the SW instead of due south or SE. SW is off land and not as warming. Long Island still gets skunked on that since SW is still off water there.
  21. jm1220
    That map includes sleet which again might overinflate it since warm mid levels may be a factor.
  22. jm1220
    What may help slightly especially around NYC is if the wind is SW instead of S or SSE. SW wind is off land at least vs off the ocean. On LI it doesn’t really matter. Mid level warm layers are also always something to watch in SWFEs and there could be sleet that also cuts down accums. Lots can always go wrong in SWFEs down here.
  23. jm1220
    I think 3” is too high for JFK. I’d go 1-2” there. LGA and Central Park maybe 3”. If this comes in heavy and can last a few hours before changing over, all bets are off though. It’ll really be about watching the radar and how strong the onshore wind gets tomorrow.
  24. jm1220
    Advisories expanded to everyone except SE Suffolk. I’m still thinking forgettable in general but maybe some on the north shore make it to 3”.
  25. jm1220
    Might be time for advisories at least in northern Queens Nassau and Suffolk.
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