jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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If there’s the north wind down the Hudson with no downsloping it may get pretty close. -3 is likely overdone but could get to 0. There’s also no snow here but it’s on the ground close enough to here.
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It’s comical how it’s in and out in a day. One way below average day in 30 torch days.
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If we do get real cold from this, the way models are showing is the right way for it to happen. Little/any moderation from the due north cold advection, and snow cover isn't terribly far away. The Christmas cold snap got most of us down to the mid single digits and it came in literally the worst way cold air can come in for it to stay cold. But it's comical how the cold air lasts for literally one day because there's no blocking.
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The GEM is usually a little warm with surface temps but this winter it fits to a T.
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Your area really got nailed by that one. There was definitely 20" around Deer Park, Babylon, etc. I drove up 231 the day after and there was a drop off once you got to around the LIE up to where I live where there was probably 14-15". You would also notice an uptick in the snowpack once you drove east to Commack and definitely Smithtown. Doesn't happen often but that was definitely a SW Suffolk jackpot and then east from there.
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97-98 would've been a really nice winter had it been a few degrees cooler. Lots of favorable tracks but just overwhelmed in warm air. 09-10 did end up a good season despite the 2/6 disaster, and 1/23/16 was set to miss us as well but there was a last minute 75 mile north bump that saved most of us. We never really have a 'gimme' winter here.
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After the 1/23/16 blizzard I missed, I did happen to be in town for when it hit-1.
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Yup. The climate is an incredibly complex and dynamic system that our modeling, good as it is can’t capture the nuances of in local regions. Unfortunately our kids/grandkids etc will have to find out those consequences. What’s pretty clear for our region is that we’re becoming more Carolina like-higher humidity in summer vs hotter temps, and likely more hurricane threats. Winters (down the road) will become more like the VA Tidewater (even Norfolk averages 6” snow a year lol).
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There’s no confluence or blocking north of us, so no mechanism to build and keep a high pressure.
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Flat lined would imply it’s had some life at all.
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Somebody had to start the topic I guess. Godspeed.
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The reason I keep saying that CC is a plus on top of an already crappy pattern is because this winter’s pattern would suck no matter what year. It’s been a rampaging Pacific along with the steep SE Ridge. “Another year” would be +7 or 8 January not +10 but it’s been constantly cold in the northern Plains and NW for several winters. Seattle has more snow than Boston this winter. Part of this to me is the rubber band snapping back and we can’t bank on blockbuster winters like we had last decade. Where CC might really contribute though is reinforcing certain patterns like these where the warm Atlantic reinforces the SE Ridge and warm western Pacific reinforces a Nina atmospheric state. More research needs to be done on that. In the summer it seems to reinforce our increasing humidity on a southerly flow vs more hot 95+ degree days on a westerly wind. The ridge becoming steeper causes the Bermuda High to move north and it becomes more Florida like here while the worst of the heat shoots over into New England.
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We’ve also seen that we either have blockbusters or total bust winters, very few in between. Last year was an anomaly where I just about hit average on the nose but it was off one very big and one significant snow event. Climate change probably would reinforce the big snow or no patterns because of the warmer waters/more contrast fueling the blizzards and years like this fueling the massive SE ridge and constant warmth. The climate change fueled marine heatwaves will also change how Nino/Nina patterns develop because the hot western Pacific for example is enhancing the Nina background state.
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NYC doesn’t have a breadbasket storm type that delivers the bulk of the snow. DC has Miller A type Gulf storms/southern sliders that deliver their snow while Boston has Miller B redevelopers. NYC can get hit by both types in the right circumstances but also get missed. That’s why it’s so hard to forecast snow amounts here-it’s hard to lock in a snowstorm here 4-5 days out like you can in DC and Boston when you know the storm type. NYC is often on the edge where a 75 mile difference can mean 12+ or little. 2/6/10 is the most extreme example, last Jan’s storm, 1/25/15, 1/23/16 etc where tiny differences near NYC would’ve caused hugely different outcomes while Boston or DC’s fates were locked for days before.
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“Bigger storm” this year without blocking probably means cutter or SWFE. I’d gladly take a smaller few inch type event.
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At least since the ground isn't frozen the water table can build up I guess. Too much tonight though. It's absolutely pouring and I'm sure some basements will flood.
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I have no idea really what Long Beach got in Jan 2015, I was going by other Nassau totals and pictures I saw from around town that looked like around that much. Jan 2016 it was clear was probably an all timer. My benchmark personally is Jan 1996 and the snow looked even deeper than that. My brother sent me a picture of our garage almost totally buried.
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Could be worse. I missed both Jan 2015 and 2016 storms because I was living in TX at the time. In Long Beach-my home town, Jan 2015 was a very impressive but not historic event, about 15” there. Jan 2016 was all time historic, 24-30”. You can imagine what gut punches those were. The day you guys were getting buried, it was 78 and bright sunny in Austin.
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Seattle switched coasts.
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Western ridge axis is way too far west and no blocking. To me this just means that behind the cutters it gets colder which if it's possible I hate even more because in the winter there's nothing worse than warm cutter to cold/dry. Maybe this can promote some front end snow going into one of the cutters.
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Should be a soaker tonight. 21z HRRR showed up to 2” across LI. The LLJ associated with the developing coastal low means business. Winds will be kicked up too.
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Most of us had a decent one in early Jan last year. 8" of powdery snow IMBY.
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Was outside a half hour ago and another attempt at mangled flakes/sleet. Pathetic.
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Chances of Central Park measuring something? 10%?
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Highly doubt it. Snowing in some places but temp is still 36-37 degrees. Colder spots in NYC do seem to be all snow now. Here in LI jackpot land it’s rain with a few flakes mixed in. If there is some slush for a bit in Central Park odds are it won’t even be measured.
