jm1220

Close call

Latest HRRR says the rest of it's a really close call for NYC and LI. The immediate south shore and southern half of NYC is probably done with accums, looks like the warm nose at 750-800mb is here and also temps are above freezing. Soundings over MBY show it getting close but not quite to sleet. DIX radar shows the sleet line maybe settling just S of I-78. But there's still a fair amount of precip to go so this is where the big N Shore/S Shore difference starts. Hopefully not and the sleet line can settle south a little. But unfortuately places like Edison/New Brunswick/Staten Island and southernmost Nassau are probably done (where it even started in the first place. Long Beach I don't think ever got below 34 so it may never have even accumulated ).

Light snow continuing here. The splotchy/shredded precip is what I was concerned about in terms of allowing warming to take over. However when precip picks back up it'll probably go back to snow especially north of I-78. That's always been the dividing line roughly between where there might be an inch of slush or so vs more meaningful.

Dry slot trying to fill in and another batch coming from the city. Awesome!

About 2" here. Mod to heavy before the lull comes in.

Moderate to heavy again.

With the heavier steady precip you should go back to snow. Looks on dual pol like the sleet is associated with lighter precip. In Central PA the snow is crashing south pretty well. Already close to 2" where I am. This dry slot sucks and will allow the warm air to advance somewhat but hopefully when it gets heavy again it mixes out.

Also down to 31 now.

I’m close to that here. It was absolutely dumping before. Tapering off a little but looks like one more burst before whatever lull moves in.

Hopefully this lull fills in a little. That’ll allow warm air to advance if it doesn’t.

In Central PA it looks like snow is crashing south in the heavy precip on the dual pol. It’ll be close especially for I-78 and the south shore, maybe up here and the rest of the city. Models do show the warm nose coming in around 6-7z. We’ll see. Hopefully the coastal low starts doing work.

Dumping here now. Hopefully there's not too much of a lull coming from PA.

Sidewalk/street slushy, snow definitely getting heavier. Close to 1/2” on colder surfaces I’d say.

I use RadarScope which is also good for dual pol.

And just think if you turned it upside down you’d already have 14”.

Coming down at a better clip, coating on colder surfaces, not sticking to pavement yet.

The wild card for the south shore is the coastal low hopefully turning winds around to ENE which is a less warm direction (though still not great) and the warm air aloft and surface being stopped. Models other than the NAM don't really get enough warm air north of Sunrise Highway for sleet to be a big deal. Not sure about "easily" but I'll take whatever I can get in this worst winter ever (which if I get 4-5" won't be worst ever but still in the bottom 5 lol).

That heavier area of precip in W PA will I think make or break it here. If that can stay heavier and be in the form of snow we can make it to 4 or 5", if it's sleet or lightens up we get 2 or 3". And the barrier islands/south shore may not get cold enough to really accumulate at all. Whatever we end up getting, better late than never.

If you’re in Seaford hopefully you drop another couple degrees when the heavier snow gets in. That should enable it to stick at least on grass. Otherwise we’re seeing the issue the models picked up on-Long Beach is still 37-38 and will be lucky to get an inch most likely. Glad I’m not there for this. Temp here down to 33.

Light rimed snow grains and some mangled flakes. Colder surfaces/grass starting to accumulate. Temp 34.

Where are you located? I assume not Jacksonville?

Flakes here.

Sleet line on dual-pol looks to be just S of Reading/Pottstown PA. Hopefully Allentown gets pounded pretty good, that's the test case for me for what NYC/most of LI can expect.

It's probably some ensemble forecast. And no that's not great forecasting. I still remember the debacle that happened when Channel 4 showed 26" of snow from the NAM in Central Park right before Nemo 2/8/13. People freaked out for the 11" it ended up being-significant but not crippling. My guesses for totals: Central Park 2.5" JFK 1.5" LGA: 3" Long Beach: 1" EWR: 3" New Brunswick: 1.5" Morristown: 5.5" Middletown NY: 7" Newburgh: 5.5" Danbury: 6.5" New Haven: 6" Huntington (IMBY): 4" Islip: 3.5" RIverhead: 3" Places I have 3-4" on LI and Newark etc might easily be only 2" or less if we see sleet crashing in, breaks in the precip etc. Tough call.

35 here. Hopefully first flakes soon.