jm1220
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Everything posted by jm1220
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I’ll be more than happy with just one Nino winter storm bomb like Feb 1983, Jan 2016 or PDII in 2003. 2/5/10 would’ve been one for us too if the confluence was just a hair weaker.
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I guess one positive is that the W PAC isn’t boiling hot anymore so the MJO should be more favorable, but the warm water NW of Hawaii of course is another turd in the punch bowl. The waters off the SE US aren’t too warm so we shouldn’t see a raging SE ridge again, which is also a Nina not Nino trait, but like others said it’s hard to determine if the pattern drives the SSTA’s or the other way around.
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Been a mist storm for the last 2 hours.
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Models got the northern edge heavy band right. I have about 0.5”, as usual Suffolk County shaft area.
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Usually happens with these systems-there’s an initial overrunning batch on the north end where there’s a secondary max of heavy amounts. North of that’s the brick wall and north of Hartford probably gets zilch.
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I think we know the deal, where do the waves of heavy rain start getting eaten by confluence. In Boston it might not get any worse than partly cloudy this weekend. But since we’re in a strong Nino and we’re already seeing signs of strong blocking, could be a coming attraction for a few months from now.
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The NAM 3K is hourly on Pivotal within 60 hrs and also other hi-res models like the ARW, NSSL and FV3. Those are 48-60hr models. I’m not sure where you can find globals hourly output. I think Tropical Tidbits has hourly HRDPS which is the higher res RGEM.
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Looks a little wetter than 0z.
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Plenty more confluence-eaten waves of drizzle though!
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It’s good we’re seeing blocking but as we’re also seeing, it can be too much of a good thing. At least this upcoming storm is happening in October.
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The -PDO tempers my optimism for us, it means even though we have a strong Nino it will try to act like a Nina at times, but hopefully we can at least approach normal snow. We probably go above average temps which isn’t saying much, but Decembers in most Nino years particularly strong one’s torch. If we get one or two big events, I’ll be more than happy to settle on that. Hell I’ll be thrilled with any over 6” event.
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Yep, lots of confluence. North of I-84 might be a nice weekend for once.
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Yep, not looking forward to another crappy weekend, whether we get 1” or 0.1” mist. Definitely enjoying the sun/low 70s while it’s here.
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Anything would be a bonanza after last “winter”.
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If you’re a DC snow weenie absolutely.
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
jm1220 replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
I can see all the Ray Donovan memes when that’s the Nino STJ juiced monster that buries the megalopolis. -
My Winter Outlook for 2023-24
jm1220 replied to raindancewx's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Well I hope you’re wrong but very nice write up. And you did quite well this past “winter”. -
All comes down to where the blocking and resulting confluence sets up. Would be a nail biter if this was winter. Although it doesn’t really interest me now-light/mod rain vs mist is still another ruined weekend.
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Not sure a windy mist storm would be that much better outcome. Blocking/confluence doing work on that map with the ESE precip cutoff like that.
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If that raging jet stays, doesn’t matter how strong any Nino might be, we still have the perma-Nina state. Maybe it’s a good thing we’re getting this over with now? PDO is still very negative which reinforces that jet.
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The primary hanging on too long/Lake cutters are Nina features. Hopefully as we go into winter we get rid of those. That map would be heavy rain for the city/coast even in late January.
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Glad this one underperformed here. Windy and definitely getting colder.
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A few light showers here so far.
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Beautiful in Long Beach, smoke cleared out thankfully. A COC day as they put it in the New England forum. The beach took a rough hit and possibly more to come @wdrag
