It's Always Sunny

Nice! That mid-level dry slot hung on once the warm nose eroded which allowed FZRA to continue into early evening. I don't recall the GFS having that but I think hi-res models did. MSP METAR had 0.23 liquid reported during that mixed precip phase so it's fair to assume that would've been around another 2-3 inches had that been snow.

Looks like MSP got around 6". Personally I'm surprised given how much wintry mix they got earlier in the day. Banding did work considering MSP got ~0.2" more liquid than models had.

Yeah it may teeter-tot a bit before it flips to all snow (hopefully) around 1-2pm CT. National Weather Service has it flipping to all FZRA at 2pm through 6pm but I'm just not seeing it.

Pesky warm nose probably going to chip into what was once looking like decent snowfall for MSP:

I'm okay with bringing him back. Red Sox needed some good news in 2020. I think he's a good manager despite the cheating scandal. It's like A-Rod using roids. Dude didn't need em he was good already just made a dumb decision.

Well depending on the status of Covid I'll have to check out their location on the Cape next summer. The plan is to be up there in June for a week to see family . I've heard the microbrewery scene has really taken off over the past 3-4 years or so.

I've heard this is a popular brewery up in MA. Near Sturbridge village? Now on the Cape?

You nursing Organic Michelob Ultras now?

I enjoy the rapid succession of the fronts as well mainly because it's a rinse & repeat pattern when moisture pools up here in N TX; a good way to reset. I enjoy the warm temperatures though so I probably won't be saying this a couple months from now, haha. From a meteorological standpoint they're fun to anticipate because if they don't bring something as simple as strong N/NW winds and a 10-30F temperature drop in a matter of hours they bring the chance of thunderstorms (potentially severe) or some sort of wintry surprise. When looking ahead at the long term pattern it's tough to pinpoint how often we'll see these, but as long as we have some sort of ridging in the Pacific we should be susceptible to these. Weekend should be good overall. Looks like a slight chance of thunderstorms late Sunday into Monday with another fropa but appears isolated and mainly east of DFW.

Yeah some PVS induced LP I wouldn't put any stock in that solution right now. GFS solution is more realistic.

Can't resist this winter disco man I gotta get my fix somewhere! Haha. Don't miss the cold/snow one bit (unless it's a crippling blizzard) but I love forecasting it just as much as anyone else even though I'm in TX now lol. I feel good about this winter up there too I think at least an "average" winter is on tap.

I think being "quite cautious" is a fair assumption, especially since past couple winters for E MA have suckeddddd but most of you on here are smart enough to know that can all turn on a dime.

2010-2011 teleconnections are going to be pretty similar this year and I recall Lowell & Blue Hill (two stations I closely follow) did well that year. EDIT: And when I say teleconnections I mean ENSO phase, QBO, PDO, AMO which I quickly looked up. I know there's more to it obviously but just quick glance that's what I'm gathering.

Guys are setting the bar low for this winter conversing whether you would take a 11-12 or 19-20 esque-winter lol.

Delta now a Cat 1

I still think it's pretty on point. 12Z winds did really well so I buy into what it is selling. I am interested to see how much Delta is affected once it moves over the YP because that will set the baseline of how much/fast it can recover once it re-enters the GoM.

What I meant by record setting is top 10-15 I should've phrased that differently. 2003 had 543, 2004 had 509, 2008 had 462. May 2011 would be 9th most active May. May 2010 is actually 12th but still impressive in my opinion.

I was just referring to how active they were. 2010 had record setting May (304) & June (324) numbers. 2011 had a whopping 758 tornados in April (highest ever on record) and May had 326 which was also amongst the highest. You're right about 2012 relatively speaking.

@CheeselandSkies I think it's safe to say Delta is now a member of the "Beast Mode" October Hurricanes Club.

Yeah good banding hopefully gets this thing more consolidated and erase that dry air pocket.

Yeah that would make sense. I'm really interested in how this upcoming severe season will play out since 2010 & 2011 were bonkers with a well established (moderate to strong) La Nina. I read your post about the drought and its downstream affect on early season severe potential in the east. Good stuff.

Too early to put Delta in that category. It has potential to be, but those other storms were in a league of their own.

And another thing I have a hard time buying into are those seasonal monthly H5 anoms because that just depicts the average pattern so you could still get 1-2 good s/w's out of Canada that result in something measurable.

Totally agree with you about the temps and with snow there are so many moving parts and even if things line up, your forecast still may not even materialize lol. My constant reminder is winter 2011-2012 where we had a weak La Nina, e'rly QBO, -PDO, snow weenies were jumping around with pt's and most of us in eastern MA got near record low snow lol.

Idk about you guys but I feel like I've heard a little bit of everything on how this winter will go for New England, more uncertainty than usual, at least for me. Depends on what you read I guess.