It's Always Sunny

I thought you meant it like that lol.

Ok I see it now. Thanks!

What is the click path to get the model comparison chart on WxModels? I can't seem to find it.

#21 is a good solution for everyone to sip the Kool-Aid I agree. I like #29 mainly bc it crushes I-95 and east and tickles northern portions of 495 from what I can tell.

Just got this at work...

Doesn't sound like he's on the road to trade school like you had hoped for a few years ago lol.

Lol. Scott had his son looking at weather models the day he came home from the hospital.

For sure. I had a few days off but earlier this week it wasn't looking as good as it does now for second half of the month. Trending in the right direction.

ICON the dark horse

Agree...it's not even what I consider a classic CAD setup. Maybe for NH & ME, sure but for MA not seeing it.

I thought this was the New England forum, not NY.

Maybe so but that would probably happen more often during similar setups if that were the case. Others will likely add onto this but I think it goes back to the lack of lift in the DGZ.

Yeah exactly to your point. Like you said events that don't look so hot then do great, we pick out what went well, what overproduced, etc and we do the opposite for when we have high expectations and it doesn't materialize.

I know I'm speaking for others but events like these always leave a dent in forecasting confidence because there have been many times where the best lift wasn't quite in the DGZ but still yielded great amounts and then you have yesterday's storm that pretty much puts us back in check. I remember earlier this year (I forget the date Will probably knows lol) but mid level dry air was a potential issue which made many of us poo-poo it but most of SNE ended up doing really well. If I can find the date I'll update this post but point being that was a storm that left a dent as well. EDIT: December 11, 2019 event with the mid-level dry pocket.

Yeah looking at METARs this morning I was seeing several hours of snow reports for lots of places along the coast but then only saw like 1-2" total. Unique event for sure and most places changed over sooner than modeled (even though we knew that would probably happen).

Goes back to what you said originally though Scott how most places didn't see flakes flourish in the DGZ. I remember looking at soundings and x-sections yesterday and saw the same thing. Best lift was either above or below it (at least the stations I was looking at).

Haha not likely but you never know. My wife and I both moved to TX separately never thinking we'd be here this long lol.

I think it really depends on a few things: how that Rex Block breaks down, how soon after the low over the west coast lifts out once blocking departs and how that s/w interacts w/ what comes out of Pac NW. If I had to place a bet I'd still say it cuts but those are three things that I think could cause models to tick east. Yesterday's storm was originally a cutter around December 1st and it became a coastal so I think there's at least some room for optimism.

There's still a chance for that Dec 13-14th event to amount to something for New England. Models have a Rex Block set up over western US which then eventually breaks down and that ridging pattern traverses the rest of the country with our next storm system trailing it. Unfortunately that could very well lead to it cutting it just depends on how much that ridging breaks down out ahead of it. Chances don't look great though but maybe get some back end snow out of it.

I see some warming over Siberia...could have some implications for end of this month or early next year.

Waking up to snow totals this morning . Hoping NWS updates these and we see some increased totals.

Lowell/Lawrence should flip to snow or mix soon according to radar.

KMHT 051726Z 0518/0618 35008KT 1SM -SN BR OVC004 FM052200 33024G33KT 1/2SM SN OVC005 WS020/00050KT FM060400 32020G30KT 2SM -SN OVC010 WS020/00050KT FM060600 32018G26KT 5SM -SN BR OVC025 FM060900 31016G24KT P6SM OVC035

Yeah that's what the HRRR currently has just curious to see if that srn LP/open wave trough tugs that parent low more south and east which would cause BOS to flip earlier than modeled is my guess. Who knows lol.