It's Always Sunny

12Z BUF sounding looking nice. Textbook.

I know lol but my glorious name is being tarnished.

I'm changing my name.

Yeah it could stay all snow, will be close! Warm nose could still be subfreezing I'm using it more in context of a warm air intrusion around 850mb that could bump down good snow growth is what I was getting at.

I think we'll see between a T-2" in the Metroplex. Best lift is below DGZ (which is shallow) and that warm nose is going to ruin any shot of good ratios.

That's what she said.

Most folks west of 95 should do pretty well, but "well" still may not be enough for some here.

As Will Nilly said coastal folks in MA are gonna get taint. 95 and west deal.

And North TX; we hit mid 70's today!

Look what we have here...

My brief thoughts on the first half of February: https://weatherchest.weebly.com/home/north-texas-winter-outlook-for-first-half-of-february

You know when it is released next month?

I haven't looked at the specific dates for those years in particular but despite it being difficult for snowfall in N TX, it's even more difficult during La Nina unless you get some sort of an anomalous pattern earlier this season (more El Nino like) or we are in the right place right time during some sort of pattern transition. Plus as you know there are other factors as well such as SSWs which can throw a wrench in things. Either way, near term, not looking great as synoptics are finally settling into more of a La Nina regime.

With recent pattern change any chance of wintry weather in N TX is on pause, and may be for some time. Continued signals of a NPJ retraction at the end of this month points to a warm start to Feb for the central and eastern US and cooler for the western US.

EPO going + end of the month it seems with MJO progression & jet retraction. Uh oh...

There are signs of another SSWE at the end of this month/early Feb too.

MSP area struggling with some dry air behind occluded front. Should change later tonight once LP drops south.

As long as that pattern holds (which it should for the most part) I remain optimistic.

Ended up with nada here. Dry air and warm low level temps did us in. Models didn't handle this area well.

Still lots of RASN reports still. Atmosphere needs to cool some more to get full on SN here. Shouldn't be too much longer.

I'm kind of near where you are but further southwest (just west of DFW) and I'm expecting up to 2". Where you are I think up to 1" is possible.

DFW and DAL reporting RASN

Snow in Arlington!

SW Fort Worth & Burleson reporting moderate snow.