It's Always Sunny

Thinking out loud, wonder if srn LP keeps this system more south and east than modeled. I would presume this would help E MA and their snow amounts. Open to other input.

Looks like LCI starting to mix. C'mon Plymouth!

Looks like melting later is pivoting NW and encroaching towards 495/north shore so a change over back to rain/mix could be possible soon for cntrl-nrn Middlesex county.

I was on Plymouth during one of my years there. Worst apartment ever lol.

LCI battling -RA with that NE wind while CON snows with N wind crazy what only a few miles can do.

Anyone in Lowell?

Based on the observation posts seems rain/snow line is right along 495. LWM still rain though so seems right around Rt 3/495 intersection westward is mainly a mix/snow.

-SN in Manch. Some TAF

-SN in Nashua, NH

Nice example of bright banding. Melting layer around 1500'.

Paint it black. 495 & Hills bruiser.

Agree, and could (and should imo) even be earlier than that. Most NWS offices don't pay too much attention to TAFs, as evident here. 8-12" in 3 hours...okay you think that NWS lol.

Da fuk? KMHT 051132Z 0512/0612 VRB04KT P6SM -RA FEW024 OVC029 FM051400 36011KT 4SM -RA OVC005 FM052200 35016G28KT 4SM +RA OVC004 WS020/00050KT FM060300 32016G31KT 1/2SM SN OVC015 FM060600 31016G30KT P6SM OVC025

Lol just a bit. I've been here for over 5 yrs and haven't had more than a coating in the metroplex, thankfully (considering nobody knows how to handle winter precip here) nor do they have the resources to treat the roads. Dreading my first freezing rain event here though between the power outages and poor road conditions in the event I have to drive into work. Last one was in March 2015 right before I got here so DFW is due, just a matter of when.

I'm glad this event will likely pan out for most I wasn't too optimistic on it a few days ago where it appeared like it would cut but it seems that the LP slowed and phased with nrn stream when it was over TN Valley putting it on a favorable track for most. It appeared at first the LP needed to dig further south when it was over TX to get any sort of chance but looks like nrn stream came to the rescue and took it under its wing. Hoping the GFS resolves itself for ern MA to make this an all inclusive event for everyone.

The LP is deepening more than earlier runs have suggested which could be one of the reasons it has slowed down its progressive motion. It's also slightly further south, a bit more removed from "stronger" upper level flow. Could be a myriad of different reasons but those are two that have stuck out to me.

Pretty much only a 25 mile difference of 0C isotherm is what is keeping the GFS from being in agreement with the rest of the models. Definitely think it is resolvable.

21Z WSI RPM improved for north shore:

TROWAL showing up well over BDL at 18Z between 650-700mb with easterly wind and kink in isotherms. CCB just below it with more NE'rly winds.

Anyone know what model this is generated from? It poo-poos ern MA similar to GFS. EDIT: Idk why I said nrn CT I think I'm looking at too many things.

2-4" wouldn't surprise me either I just think 2" is on the low end so to speak. 18Z GFS coming in will be interesting if it holds. NAM continues it.

Ok cool glad we're on the same page. 4-8" could definitely be a possibility too no doubt.

I think 2" could be well underdone. All models have them getting between 1.25-1.50" liquid when it potentially flips to snow. Valley could be warmer but GFS is the only one keeping them above mid-30's at this point. And if they band then evap cooling will do the rest. Idk I see bust potential there. I think 3-6" is more realistic imo. Just curious to see what others think.

Anyone else think NWS is underdoing BDL?