It's Always Sunny

That and yesterday's severe risk in IL lol.

Things got some rotation too.

SPC pulled back on western extend of slight and keeps it mainly confined to central-northern LA but looking at it closer (on 12Z NAM) not that impressed with wind fields for any sort of tornadic risk. Best kinematics occur before precipitation gets there with little instability in general appears to be more of a wind/hail risk.

QLCS with embedded circulations looking more likely.

Yeah just a little delayed but reading their disco height falls should begin eroding any cap.

Cells starting to pop in western IL...

KJBR 282205Z AUTO 26031G64KT 1 1/2SM -TSRA SQ FEW022 BKN043 OVC075 23/20 RMK AO2 PK WND 25064/2203 LTG DSNT ALQDS P0004 T02280200 $ This is the observation with the tornado passing just to the north of the airport I am assuming.

Although things are going to fire up later than initially thought I still think a tornado outbreak is still in the cards. Option B would be later this evening these cells merge into a QLCS with embedded tornadoes which is fairly common with high shear, low CAPE events, typically in early spring.

Wow...

Yeah you're right I was looking at temps just south of Chicago not to the west where the warm sector was. Looks like 3km NAM temps are slightly warmer in the IL warm sector today than yesterday for 21Z. If they're verifying in OK & TX then modeled temps could hold some truth for the warm sector. I haven't been checking modeled surface temps in OK & TX to see how they've been verifying.

Advertising what you said above (mid-upper 60's) and yeah totally agree even a few degrees warmer can make such a difference. Still got a couple days to see how temps trend.

Our weather station hit 92.7F which I feel is on the warm side especially with surrounding stations reporting upper 80's (maybe a couple 90F readings) but either way nice heat up yesterday (and today for that matter). There was lightning with that activity that passed to our north originating from the dry line. Don't really know what influence these early heat ups have on our storm season I mean technically it is already underway and we've had a few decent days here. I would also think any heat up or warm stretch we get would benefit our severe potential here for the reasons you mentioned above.

Lol all models are advertising here's to hoping dynamics will be able to compensate which appear impressive thus far.

Cell isn't competing against a whole lot should continue to hold together.

Storm is about 40 miles west of Huntsville definitely bears watching.

SPC thinking there could be some severe potential in the Metroplex up through OKC on Day 4. Appears to be a nighttime potential:

Someone with more mathematical expertise can probably go into more detail here, but meteorology uses mainly pressure units when looking at things horizontally and vertically (think of it in a 3-D point of view) so a certain increase or decrease in pressure over a unit of time is indicative of how much ascent or descent there is when speaking in the vertical. Hope this helps.

I'll buy into this thread. Looks like if anything develops it will peter out before it reaches eastern portions of New England like Wiz said but CT appears to have a shot along the pre-frontal trough. Straight line hodos roughly between 23-01Z could generate some multi-cellular storms with those strong winds. What an impressive wind field!

Tornado warning south of OMA. Strange looking cell.

It'll be interesting to see how those showers over the Midwest affect the severe weather potential later this afternoon and tonight. My initial concern is that those showers are going to stabilize things to the point where the severe weather coverage will be rather limited. Modeled CAPE remains impressive south of warm front though so if that holds true still could be in for an active afternoon and evening.

Could see some late afternoon/early evening storms across DFW clearing ahead of convective line east of SPS is sufficient.

Yeah I agree not only was Dallas like that but the one in Nashville recently did the same exact thing where it was a severe warned thunderstorm then all of a sudden just dropped a tornado and it became instantaneously tornado warned.

Right now I am leaning more towards overnight tstms for the Metroplex. I could be right, could be wrong but that's what makes forecasting fun.

WSI RPM 18Z model keeps cells over Wise/Jack counties which is similar to HRRR output but I'm still as equally concerned as earlier about cells getting close to the Metroplex. Runs can flip-flop with how far east/west they want to bring the cells my main takeaway is the potential is there for storms in the Metroplex (not so much the placement). Those leading cells on the HRRR are a little out of place in my opinion looks like it is sparking them off a little sfc convergence boundary that currently doesn't even exist on real time obs so it'll be interesting to see if they develop in the next hour or so. The one south of MAF makes sense because that's where the boundary actually is.