It's Always Sunny

Good points you make. I agree with the uncertainty it's tumbling over with the s/w's downstream; lots of moving pieces and the mean spreads show it. My initial thought on the EPS is that it will be pretty similar to previous run since the op kept its east bias. If anything the EPS may be a hair further east than before. Just my thought.

The EPS has always been further west than the op so I wouldn't be too worried about this recent run. Lots of time, lots can change.

Even this spread illustrates how much can change prior to the development of this storm.

It appears 12Z GEFS trended further east but like you said there is good spread on the western side of that low which could imply a shift back west. I feel ashamed even dissecting this storm so far out due to the looming uncertainty. Just shows how little there is to talk about weather-wise.

Yeah I agree with that and fwiw model trends on the GEFS are becoming more favorable to align it more with GEM and EPS.

GEFS not quite as robust as EPS. It's still favorable, but more subtle. Keep your weenies in.

This far out it can definitely go either way imo considering GEFS has a more westerly solution and EPS more easterly (more favorable for good snow). I guess if you split the difference it puts it just west of the 40/70 benchmark. More ensemble members on EPS put it over the benchmark despite op solution too far east.

12Z EPS pretty similar too:

I just feel like if that trough digs any further south on the Euro it's either going to become cutoff which will suck for ya'll up there or it will still stay its course but with the low taking a more easterly track offshore, resulting in lower snow totals for many west of I-95 (as a tentative reference point).

Looks like it's close to becoming a cutoff.

Ok gotcha. Clearly forgot that happened (easier to forget when you're not physically there ) . I remember I was in the middle of a move that week too my head was elsewhere.

2015? I'm seeing that as a wind event. That winter was clipper after clipper with a few Noreasters thrown in as well it all blended together after a while lol.

I agree. Operationally, anything beyond even Day 3 I don't even put much stock in. I use it more as a baseline of what to expect but I never take it verbatim because it's so prone to change.

That was the last quality snowstorm New England got. I remember jackpotting with about 34" of snow in Boxborough with that storm. That deformation band was once in a lifetime.

Moderate snow band pivoting through Plymouth and Laconia right now. Models suggest some of those spots in NH & ME can see around 2"/hr with great ratios.

Ratios were crap though doesn't matter if it's freezing at the surface. 5:1 ratio amounts will give you that.

Dry slot right now:

ABQ ended up reporting 0.7" snow (midnight to midnight) so it matches your expectations. I don't know what the liquid equivalent was with that final total but as you know ABQ gets crap ratios frequently due to their climate/geographic location (snow shadowing).

-SN in ABQ. Our official forecast is up to 1" but if it stays just cold enough I think 1-3" is certainly possible.Those temperatures around 750mb are going to be the determining factor.

Absolutely torching in Texas today. 81F at my house which is nearly 25F above normal. DFW may tie or break its daily record of 80F. It's at 79F now with skies clearing.

For the Dallas area I think the lack of tornadoes was due to the cap breaking too late, mainly due to overcast conditions and from what I remember the 700 mb trough arrived a little later than modeled which also would've helped break the cap sooner. Looking at the 18Z FWD sounding the low level wind profile was almost linear in the lowest km which doesn't work so well for spin ups. There was also some subtle VBV above 1km but I don't think that alone was the reason we didn't see much, but moreso the combination of the two.

We ended up having to leave our house with that TOR warning in Tarrant earlier. Scary stuff. It was nasty looking on radar near Burleson.

Storms starting to fire up within and along the I-35 corridor in DFW area. Let the fun begin...

Cap over DFW is due to break soon. 12Z HRRR (last one I checked) was too early breaking the cap but 18Z NAM has it broken by 21Z. Those height falls around 850-700mb approaching from the west should break it open.

I'm surprised they didn't extend the moderate west that cap is modeled to be gone by 18Z. Once they start firing up around 18-19Z it won't be long until those are warned.