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It's Always Sunny

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Everything posted by It's Always Sunny

  1. It's Always Sunny
    Lots of varying solutions with NAM being the coldest thus far. It's still too early to tell if Dallas will be a wintry mix or cold rain.
  2. It's Always Sunny
    Just missed the 6 month anniversary of the Cape Cod tornadoes. That was a fun event to dissect once it was over.
  3. It's Always Sunny
    Ratios were crap though doesn't matter if it's freezing at the surface. 5:1 ratio amounts will give you that.
  4. It's Always Sunny
    ABQ ended up reporting 0.7" snow (midnight to midnight) so it matches your expectations. I don't know what the liquid equivalent was with that final total but as you know ABQ gets crap ratios frequently due to their climate/geographic location (snow shadowing).
  5. It's Always Sunny
    -SN in ABQ. Our official forecast is up to 1" but if it stays just cold enough I think 1-3" is certainly possible.Those temperatures around 750mb are going to be the determining factor.
  6. It's Always Sunny
    Absolutely torching in Texas today. 81F at my house which is nearly 25F above normal. DFW may tie or break its daily record of 80F. It's at 79F now with skies clearing.
  7. It's Always Sunny
    That was just before I moved here I knew it was sometime around then, and it was snow/sleet, not freezing rain. Those two pictures in that link are hilarious. Typical TX weather lol.
  8. It's Always Sunny
    The low level cold will be locked in but it is whether we have the moisture to allow for some frozen precipitation to materialize. Like cheese said it's been some time since we've had something like this here. We're due lol. Last notable winter precipitation event in DFW area was February 2015 I believe with the FZRA.
  9. It's Always Sunny
    Bit of a west tick puts Dallas in the 15% risk now:
  10. It's Always Sunny
    Analogs suggest a lower MS Valley outbreak as of right now.
  11. It's Always Sunny
    Models trended slightly east overnight which doesn't surprise me. DFW was on the western fringe to begin with but still plenty of time for models to change:
  12. It's Always Sunny
    Given the pattern this month could see a couple slight risk days here in N TX and parts of the SE as well.
  13. It's Always Sunny
    Probably for the panhandle everywhere else will be rain.
  14. It's Always Sunny
    Dynamics are pretty good looking at soundings if you wetbulb you may be able to get a least a couple inches out of it. Stark north-south gradient with this system.
  15. It's Always Sunny
    I wouldn't expect much more unfortunately. GEFS has that mid-level trough pretty much locked in at this point, leaving most of northern AR out of the mix but central MO could get some good snow out of this with a nice 850mb frontoband set to sweep through there.
  16. It's Always Sunny
    I like what it is doing as well and agree with it to some degree, considering the continuous push of warm water east however is this model taking into assumption more warm water pushing east from Maritimes in conjunction with a modeled weakening of trade winds?
  17. It's Always Sunny
    There was some considerable low level dry air associated with this anafront which gobbled up a lot of what little QPF there was to begin with. That, along with a more pronounced warm nose than modeled was the nail in the coffin for any wishful snow chances here.
  18. It's Always Sunny
    You think that developing EWB over Nino 4 will put a bit of a damper on the anomalous warm water pushing east? I still think it'll be enough to warm Nino 3.4 but maybe not quite as much as we think? I still think CFS forecast may be underdoing it a bit but that's just my opinion.
  19. It's Always Sunny
    NW and W of the Metroplex I think it's certainly possible but as you get further east I think that risk drops off considerably. 12Z GFS give Stephenville and Granbury a brief shot at some wet snow overnight tonight but I wouldn't expect anything more than a coating. Western Fort Worth I think even has a slim chance to see some mixing for a brief window.
  20. It's Always Sunny
    Meh. If that happens precip will likely get shunted further south so it wouldn't matter. I think even if your scenario panned out lower levels will still be too warm unless it miraculously wet-bulbs to 0C.
  21. It's Always Sunny
    Hey @raindancewx a bit off topic but does La Nina generally correlate with an increased -EPO frequency since La Nina's usually result in the jet stream "buckling" over the Gulf of Alaska? Would the opposite be true for El Ninos (+EPO)?
  22. It's Always Sunny
    You mean zero chance of snow north of I-20? Going to be all rain here...
  23. It's Always Sunny
    Also just another observation the EWB over Nino 4 may start to erode the warmer waters as shown in the loop above which may keep downwelling KW in check which remains to be seen.
  24. It's Always Sunny
    Appears another downwelling KW is initializing in Nino 4. Assuming it sustains its anomalous warmth and movement east could see a warmup in Nino 3.4 in the next month or so however a bit of upwelling is lurking in Nino 3.4 so bears watching to see how much this downwelling KW sustains its warmth as it interacts with potentially cooler waters. Not expecting that upwelling KW to surface until it reaches Nino 3.
  25. It's Always Sunny
    At least the ensemble charts appear to latch onto the synoptic setup so I think it's safe to say we have the stage set for some winter weather in the Southern Plains depending on where you are.
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