It's Always Sunny

Hey @raindancewx a bit off topic but does La Nina generally correlate with an increased -EPO frequency since La Nina's usually result in the jet stream "buckling" over the Gulf of Alaska? Would the opposite be true for El Ninos (+EPO)?

You mean zero chance of snow north of I-20? Going to be all rain here...

Also just another observation the EWB over Nino 4 may start to erode the warmer waters as shown in the loop above which may keep downwelling KW in check which remains to be seen.

Appears another downwelling KW is initializing in Nino 4. Assuming it sustains its anomalous warmth and movement east could see a warmup in Nino 3.4 in the next month or so however a bit of upwelling is lurking in Nino 3.4 so bears watching to see how much this downwelling KW sustains its warmth as it interacts with potentially cooler waters. Not expecting that upwelling KW to surface until it reaches Nino 3.

I read some of your blog and like you alluded to looks like a second storm could potentially impact New England Dec 15th timeframe. Comes at a good time when that Arctic outbreak is underway. Looks Miller A-esque.

At least the ensemble charts appear to latch onto the synoptic setup so I think it's safe to say we have the stage set for some winter weather in the Southern Plains depending on where you are.

-EPO/+PNA combo looks pretty good just depends how far south it allows that cold air to spill. North Texas could be in for some FZRA if the QPF is there to support it on Sunday PM/Monday AM but GFS looks a bit dry with most of the precipitation to the east (actually where you are)...but it is the 264 hour of the GFS so we all know how little weight to put in that.

BUFKIT is my go-to for forecasting wind gusts. I use MOS as a secondary source to corroborate my train of thought. With BUFKIT, I always select "Momentum Transfer" and click '10' (which stands for 10mb). The 1, 10, 20, 30 represent the thickness of a "barrier" layer in mb, where 10mb is suggested based on my experience in the field. When you select Momentum Transfer, the bottom number is the mean mixed layer and the top number is the wind at the top of the mixed layer. I generally use the bottom number (mean mixed layer) to give me a ballpark of what the wind gusts will be, and I use the top number only sparingly because most of the time that gust never mixes down to the surface since it is so high up. I refer to the top number more as a "worst case scenario" gust. There are other things you need to take into consideration as well when forecasting wind gusts such as cloud cover and strength of temperature advection (mainly CAA) just to name a couple but generally the values BUFKIT puts out are pretty good.

Awesome, thanks man!

Gotcha that makes sense I guess that's what I get for jumping right into the middle of this thread. I guess that would put Manch at a slight risk Monday morning then. You crazy snow weenies haven't changed! Thanks Scoots just enjoying my warm temperatures and severe here in the Big D heckling Cowboys fans with GOAT chants. Hope all is well up there too; glad you guys have your first snow event on the way. While I have ya'll here with Miller B events what are the typical QPF biases with models? I know SW quadrant typically is overdone due to dryslot risk but how about areas north and east? I guess if there was -NAO in place QPF would be underdone but open to any info you have to share.

I'm open to what ya'll think but it appears that those who are supposed to get decent snowfall are not going to have to worry about the dryslot hindering totals. Maybe northeast PA if it were to punch that far north?

@raindancewx I tried clicking the link for your seasonal forecast but it's not loading? I tried Chrome & IE. Is it subscription based only?

The parent cell passed just over my house before spawning that tornado over Dallas. Models did an excellent job hinting at the potential for severe around here several days out. The hodograph was pretty much a 'U' lol. Here are some images from GR2Analyst I was able to put together:

How long is a Modoki cycle typically? CFS forecast through end of November weakens the Modoki like you mentioned above.

I can see a weak El Nino (or Modoki?) redeveloping in the coming months based on westerly winds pickup up a bit and ushering warmer water east. It appears there is a downwelling Kelvin wave approaching eastern Pacific.

We're still trying to get below 70F here lol. Monday morning looks promising.

Think these are birds on the HGX radar this morning...

It's back up now!

Does anyone know if the Iowa State feed is down? BUFKIT data is from 7/18 when I grab data...

I'm not sure my answer is 100% correct but from my experience it is more about the timing than the distance apart. What I mean by timing is how long it takes for that second line to pass through the same environment the first line did. Generally that second line would weaken as it pushes east due to the fact of the first line eats up all the moisture and instability ahead of it. However, looking at previous models it was ridiculously unstable across that geographic area when those two lines passed through to where it would be hard for that first squall line to work over the atmosphere enough. Those lines were also moving really fast so it's not like that first line had time to work over the atmosphere enough either. Also the LLJ was very strong which definitely fueled those lines. Personally, I would consider this event an anomaly. I'm sure other mets can correct me or add onto this but I hope my explanation helps a bit at least!

I read that in several cases it outperformed the Euro for tropical systems in regards to model forecast error so I'm expecting good things with it. Here is one article I read that highlights a lot of new features: https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn19-40gfs_v15_1.pdf

Don't the new equations enhance the resolution to a certain degree though despite it still having a resolution of 13km in the horiztonal and 64 in vertical?

Pretty sure I saw the crane when I was in that area yesterday. Also a billboard toppled over on a gas station just by Love Field. It was nasty here. Going to check PWS when I get home and see what it recorded but it tends to undervalue due to nearby trees, houses, etc. Some people at work who drove through it thought it could've been a tornado but it's easy to confuse when you have wind blowing rain at your windshield at 70+mph.

CAMS did a bad job on this event. HRRR catching onto it 2 hours out doesn't count as a "hit" in my book.

Yeah I've been following that too. 21Z sounding doesn't show much difference than from 18Z but radar already shows cells popping near SPS.