It's Always Sunny

I wouldn't expect much more unfortunately. GEFS has that mid-level trough pretty much locked in at this point, leaving most of northern AR out of the mix but central MO could get some good snow out of this with a nice 850mb frontoband set to sweep through there.

I think everyone's breakdown of this storm was great (what happened, why it happened, what could've been different if xyz happened, etc.). One thing I want to add is I think there was some true seeder-feeder action as well where the upper level clouds (where the impressive SG was) fed the lower level clouds despite that dry air in place. I really think it expedited the saturation (wet-bulbing) of that dry pocket. If SG wasn't as great, this may have taken longer to achieve obviously resulting in lower snow totals. Either way, it proved to be a challenging forecast when analyzing the impact this dry pocket of air would have. I think this storm had incredible dynamics where many were able to apply true meteorology reasoning to it whether your forecast verified or not. Great job, everyone, except the Yankees

This is what I use assuming you know what the climo sites are: https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html

Hey! Since you're here now see my inquiry above lol.

Do you know what's the "second wave" he is referring to? There is a s/w that drops in from the north but not sure if that is it.

That along with their higher elevation I wouldn't be surprised either. Here is what Scott said earlier so far I think it's right on lol. "One other thing possible, we may have two “max” zones. One maybe near central MA into adjacent or NW CT? This due to initial dynamics residing as it changes to snow before drying out. Then, another area in RI and SE MA. This from the second wave mixing in near 12z. Could be an area that gets less than 1-2” in between. "

Actually looking at GR2 if you toggle different radar tilts you can see some of the dry air pockets so it's definitely there, just waiting for it to start eroding some of that precip which with those moderate bands may be hard to do in the near term. I remember Scott mentioning that I'll have to look back and see what he was looking at.

Low level water vapor loop has all the dry air off to the south over central NJ moving NE. GFS soundings do show that dry air making its way in within the next couple hours but NAM has a different idea keeping column fully saturated until just about daybreak.

Yeah that's what I was leery of. That pocket of 850mb dry air was peppered all along the front from New England to Texas so it was tough to commit to who would get screwed and who wouldn't.

Eh it happens to everyone I wouldn't sweat it. No not officially but I was thinking generally 1-3" for most, maybe a couple isolated 4" amounts.

Yeah steering flow looks like it is straight out of the SW. How much did you call for in CT I must've missed that post.

Cashing in on that frontoband and looks like a nice s/w at 850mb...

I like what it is doing as well and agree with it to some degree, considering the continuous push of warm water east however is this model taking into assumption more warm water pushing east from Maritimes in conjunction with a modeled weakening of trade winds?

There was some considerable low level dry air associated with this anafront which gobbled up a lot of what little QPF there was to begin with. That, along with a more pronounced warm nose than modeled was the nail in the coffin for any wishful snow chances here.

I still have yet to find a website (including paid) that provides ECMWF soundings. If anyone knows of them please let me know. In the meantime I usually have to have 6 windows open with different variables displayed to paint a picture so to speak.

I agree with the 1-3". I remain overly concerned that 850mb dry air pocket is going to eat up some of that QPF. If that solution verifies, great, people get 1". If it saturates more than modeled then people end up with 3". It's a win-win lol.

You think that developing EWB over Nino 4 will put a bit of a damper on the anomalous warm water pushing east? I still think it'll be enough to warm Nino 3.4 but maybe not quite as much as we think? I still think CFS forecast may be underdoing it a bit but that's just my opinion.

NW and W of the Metroplex I think it's certainly possible but as you get further east I think that risk drops off considerably. 12Z GFS give Stephenville and Granbury a brief shot at some wet snow overnight tonight but I wouldn't expect anything more than a coating. Western Fort Worth I think even has a slim chance to see some mixing for a brief window.

I guess there are some intrusions which may also be from PV:

Yeah I'll send you a PM. I was looking at these two images which made me think that perhaps some dry air got entrained from tropo-fold. It's not my area of expertise so open to others input. It's more pronounced in images after these two but this is where it "begins" so to speak.

It appears it may be a bi-product of some tropo-fold and that dry pocket of air translated down into the mid and lower levels. Thoughts?

GFS has this dry pocket between 900-700mb along E MA which I guess could suggest some seeder feeder action but with PWAT being so low looks like that may not even materialize before half of that QPF evaporates. NAM on the other hand looks potent.

Meh. If that happens precip will likely get shunted further south so it wouldn't matter. I think even if your scenario panned out lower levels will still be too warm unless it miraculously wet-bulbs to 0C.

I feel like there are February-esque expectations here for this month lol. Just wait until the end of January and February...CFSv2 introduces -NAO and -EPO you'll get your snow if it verifies.

Welcome to the New England forum....they want snow. And a lot of it.