It's Always Sunny

Our weather station hit 92.7F which I feel is on the warm side especially with surrounding stations reporting upper 80's (maybe a couple 90F readings) but either way nice heat up yesterday (and today for that matter). There was lightning with that activity that passed to our north originating from the dry line. Don't really know what influence these early heat ups have on our storm season I mean technically it is already underway and we've had a few decent days here. I would also think any heat up or warm stretch we get would benefit our severe potential here for the reasons you mentioned above.

Cell isn't competing against a whole lot should continue to hold together.

Storm is about 40 miles west of Huntsville definitely bears watching.

SPC thinking there could be some severe potential in the Metroplex up through OKC on Day 4. Appears to be a nighttime potential:

Absolute torch today. Wx station at home is reading 90F with other wx stations around reading between 88-90F so it's legit! Should set the stage for some good thunderstorms tomorrow night.

Some severe potential coming together for DFW early evening tomorrow along nice surface convergence boundary. Cap appears to be in place but around 21Z models erode it. Hodos have a weak and subtle curve but may generate a couple isolated supercells. SPC has marginal out so it definitely bears some watching. Risk overall is low but certainly bears watching.

GEFS & EPS look favorable for potential severe across TX and parts of srn/cntrl Plains.

Yeah I agree to not put too much stock into ops models this far out but ensembles do favor unsettled weather around here first week of March so we'll see how it verifies. Ensembles mid to late March don't look quite as favorable (at least for now).

Had nothing significant here near DFW airport other than some wintry mix that ended up melting once it hit the surface but I think models did a fairly good job depicting the northwest to southeast temperature gradient.

I agree. These fronts are always so shallow which keeps me leery of the entire column cooling enough to produce wintry precip.

The cold air will obviously be there at the surface but I'm more focused on the temperatures aloft which will be the determining factor. GFS nukes lower levels (resulting in cold rain/freezing rain) while NAM and Euro run colder (likely sleet/snow/patchy freezing rain).

Lots of varying solutions with NAM being the coldest thus far. It's still too early to tell if Dallas will be a wintry mix or cold rain.

Just missed the 6 month anniversary of the Cape Cod tornadoes. That was a fun event to dissect once it was over.

Ratios were crap though doesn't matter if it's freezing at the surface. 5:1 ratio amounts will give you that.

ABQ ended up reporting 0.7" snow (midnight to midnight) so it matches your expectations. I don't know what the liquid equivalent was with that final total but as you know ABQ gets crap ratios frequently due to their climate/geographic location (snow shadowing).

-SN in ABQ. Our official forecast is up to 1" but if it stays just cold enough I think 1-3" is certainly possible.Those temperatures around 750mb are going to be the determining factor.

Absolutely torching in Texas today. 81F at my house which is nearly 25F above normal. DFW may tie or break its daily record of 80F. It's at 79F now with skies clearing.

That was just before I moved here I knew it was sometime around then, and it was snow/sleet, not freezing rain. Those two pictures in that link are hilarious. Typical TX weather lol.

The low level cold will be locked in but it is whether we have the moisture to allow for some frozen precipitation to materialize. Like cheese said it's been some time since we've had something like this here. We're due lol. Last notable winter precipitation event in DFW area was February 2015 I believe with the FZRA.

Bit of a west tick puts Dallas in the 15% risk now:

Analogs suggest a lower MS Valley outbreak as of right now.

Models trended slightly east overnight which doesn't surprise me. DFW was on the western fringe to begin with but still plenty of time for models to change:

Given the pattern this month could see a couple slight risk days here in N TX and parts of the SE as well.

Probably for the panhandle everywhere else will be rain.

Dynamics are pretty good looking at soundings if you wetbulb you may be able to get a least a couple inches out of it. Stark north-south gradient with this system.