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It's Always Sunny

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Everything posted by It's Always Sunny

  1. It's Always Sunny
    Best run yet from what I remember for this storm from an ensemble perspective.
  2. It's Always Sunny
    Don't see a noticeable difference with the EPS compared to previous run.
  3. It's Always Sunny
    WeatherBell must be behind if ya'll are already posting 12Z EPS. I know WSI gets it faster than most model sites just didn't think it was that much faster than WeatherBell. Edit: I got it now. Life resumes...
  4. It's Always Sunny
    Good points you make. I agree with the uncertainty it's tumbling over with the s/w's downstream; lots of moving pieces and the mean spreads show it. My initial thought on the EPS is that it will be pretty similar to previous run since the op kept its east bias. If anything the EPS may be a hair further east than before. Just my thought.
  5. It's Always Sunny
    The EPS has always been further west than the op so I wouldn't be too worried about this recent run. Lots of time, lots can change.
  6. It's Always Sunny
    Even this spread illustrates how much can change prior to the development of this storm.
  7. It's Always Sunny
    It appears 12Z GEFS trended further east but like you said there is good spread on the western side of that low which could imply a shift back west. I feel ashamed even dissecting this storm so far out due to the looming uncertainty. Just shows how little there is to talk about weather-wise.
  8. It's Always Sunny
    Yeah I agree with that and fwiw model trends on the GEFS are becoming more favorable to align it more with GEM and EPS.
  9. It's Always Sunny
    GEFS not quite as robust as EPS. It's still favorable, but more subtle. Keep your weenies in.
  10. It's Always Sunny
    This far out it can definitely go either way imo considering GEFS has a more westerly solution and EPS more easterly (more favorable for good snow). I guess if you split the difference it puts it just west of the 40/70 benchmark. More ensemble members on EPS put it over the benchmark despite op solution too far east.
  11. It's Always Sunny
    12Z EPS pretty similar too:
  12. It's Always Sunny
    I just feel like if that trough digs any further south on the Euro it's either going to become cutoff which will suck for ya'll up there or it will still stay its course but with the low taking a more easterly track offshore, resulting in lower snow totals for many west of I-95 (as a tentative reference point).
  13. It's Always Sunny
    Looks like it's close to becoming a cutoff.
  14. It's Always Sunny
    Ok gotcha. Clearly forgot that happened (easier to forget when you're not physically there ) . I remember I was in the middle of a move that week too my head was elsewhere.
  15. It's Always Sunny
    2015? I'm seeing that as a wind event. That winter was clipper after clipper with a few Noreasters thrown in as well it all blended together after a while lol.
  16. It's Always Sunny
    I agree. Operationally, anything beyond even Day 3 I don't even put much stock in. I use it more as a baseline of what to expect but I never take it verbatim because it's so prone to change.
  17. It's Always Sunny
    That was the last quality snowstorm New England got. I remember jackpotting with about 34" of snow in Boxborough with that storm. That deformation band was once in a lifetime.
  18. It's Always Sunny
    Ratios were crap though doesn't matter if it's freezing at the surface. 5:1 ratio amounts will give you that.
  19. It's Always Sunny
    ABQ ended up reporting 0.7" snow (midnight to midnight) so it matches your expectations. I don't know what the liquid equivalent was with that final total but as you know ABQ gets crap ratios frequently due to their climate/geographic location (snow shadowing).
  20. It's Always Sunny
    -SN in ABQ. Our official forecast is up to 1" but if it stays just cold enough I think 1-3" is certainly possible.Those temperatures around 750mb are going to be the determining factor.
  21. It's Always Sunny
    Absolutely torching in Texas today. 81F at my house which is nearly 25F above normal. DFW may tie or break its daily record of 80F. It's at 79F now with skies clearing.
  22. It's Always Sunny
    That was just before I moved here I knew it was sometime around then, and it was snow/sleet, not freezing rain. Those two pictures in that link are hilarious. Typical TX weather lol.
  23. It's Always Sunny
    The low level cold will be locked in but it is whether we have the moisture to allow for some frozen precipitation to materialize. Like cheese said it's been some time since we've had something like this here. We're due lol. Last notable winter precipitation event in DFW area was February 2015 I believe with the FZRA.
  24. It's Always Sunny
    Bit of a west tick puts Dallas in the 15% risk now:
  25. It's Always Sunny
    Analogs suggest a lower MS Valley outbreak as of right now.
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