It's Always Sunny

Haha I wish! Next couple weeks may be relatively quiet here but climo can do amazing things sometimes.

Good thing Sox aren't playing they'd be making snow angels on the field.

Hey on the bright side of things this could lead to a couple marginal to slight risk days for some . I know Wiz will adhere to that haha.

Pattern is late to the party you guys could've used that this winter. This is just a sputtering end to a dreadful winter for most.

Yeah I started noticing that possibly happening last week and today I was looking at the subtropical jet and it loses it's steam next week which further dampens any severe risk, at least here in the Plains however with some troughing remaining over the Southeast there still remains a possibility they get a day or two of severe potential, even with a "weakened" subtropical jet. This "lull" has the potential to spill into the first week of May based on what I was looking at but too far out for me to put much stock in it at this time.

I was surprised myself. HRRR is showing the strongest gust potential with a LLJ around 50kts that would presumably mix down to meet severe criteria, but yet it also has the steepest low level lapse rates which the other models aren't as steep. You can make a case for it. Although the other models aren't showing as strong of a gust potential, if they get some good low level WAA that could steepen lapse rates enough to mix down some of those stronger winds. We'll see, but not overly optimistic.

Upgraded to slight risk Wiz

That's what you call a happy ending

I think small hail is in the cards like you said above because nearly every ingredient for hailstone development is there except good CAPE. I don't see any chance of large hail although nothing wrong with wishful thinking I've been there before lol.

Looks like we have initial rotation over TX/LA border...

I also think those morning storms north of the front provided a decent amount of evaporational cooling reinforcing it. Kind of similar to what happened in northern IL last month with the severe weather bust.

Got 1/2" here. Wasn't looking like much at all this morning had some isolated showers and storms that ended up weakening then around 10am storms redeveloped quickly along western fringe of metroplex. Looks like it was subtle convergence boundary aloft tapping into a very unstable airmass with those steep lapse rates.

Reported 1/2" here at Love Field. Larger hail reported areas west to as large as half dollar.

Yeah I was thinking the same thing this morning seeing where that MCS passed to the north, leaving this whole area untouched. Also surface temps to the north not that great, south much better.

I like what the SPC has out but definitely going to monitor srn MS/srn AL with that MCS pretty much missing them this morning they are primed and ready to go this afternoon and tonight.

Op GFS remains active for remainder of the month so remains to be seen if it changes course.

Next week or so looks favorable for severe but end of the month/early May in question with EPO trending positive per GEFS. EPS following similar suit.

Yeah I'm with you have a hard time seeing any sort of convection in northern OH tomorrow afternoon (despite HRRR showing development of a little convection there). I just don't see the atmosphere destabilizing quickly enough to generate anything surface based at least until tomorrow evening. It really depends on how the convection fares this evening and into tomorrow morning but an area of subsidence following the morning convection makes sense.

Once that ULL passes through in about 4 days or so the ensembles remain mostly favorable through the end of the month for unsettled weather here, including severe potential. May not be in your backyard stuff but even on the 12th that area just east of the panhandle and over SW OK could be in a marginal or slight risk potentially and of course that can all shift so not a high confidence forecast by any means but there is certainly potential imo. Then from there on out we still got ridging over the west and troughing over central part of CONUS. That along with climo (it still being early in the month) I remain optimistic which I feel like is the general consensus here beyond day 10.

I see MRGL still included in 20Z update. Day 2 is interesting lots of things at play. Morning convection will have a big influence on what gets going over the OH Valley in the evening. Also models are in disagreement on placement of that LP which moves over MI tomorrow night. HRRR & ECMWF bring it through about 3-6 hours before the NAM & GFS do which can result in two completely different outcomes mainly concerning how fast OH/PA can destabilize again tomorrow afternoon.

April 3rd holds some stock but I agree with you long range ensembles look favorable for an uptick in southern plains severe beginning end of second week of April with PNA going negative and that ridging pattern across much of the eastern US retreating. Soil moisture will be abundant with all this rain we've been getting.

Dallas becoming the new Seattle...

Nice: KBUF 291806Z 23038G59KT 3/4SM R23/1400VP6000FT TSRA SQ SCT044CB BKN080 BKN180 20/13 A2954 RMK AO2 PK WND 22059/1804 LTG DSNT SW-N RAB05 TSB00 PRESRR FRQ LTGCC VC SW-NW TS VC SW-NW MOV NE P0000 T02000133