It's Always Sunny

Trying to make lemonade out of lemons...despite the first trough digging so far deep into Mexico (which eventually becomes the s/w for the coastal), the proceeding troughs behind it which "nudge" it OTS still have lots of variability amongst them so I would think a change in the track is still in the cards:

I think that is what's diminishing a coastal hit though I posted earlier how the depth of that trough is actually resulting in that OTS track. If that trough weren't to dig so far south then a coastal hit would be increased unless you are referring to the nrn stream trough then disregard everything I said. The silver lining of this would be the trough digs into Mexico is not as deep as modeled. I've seen situations where models don't always handle Mexican disturbances well due to lack of data points down there.

Yeah so basically you're illustrating what I'm trying to get at which is it can't be assumed storms tick NW. It appears upstream dynamics are the driving factor in any NW trend we see unless I am missing something. Some events even went southeast, while some didn't move at all.

He's trolling me lol.

I'm no expert on this NW tick models can take sometimes but it appears it is all situational rather than an assumption. There are numerous upstream influences that can cause those. Feel free to add onto this; this isn't something I analyze as closely like some do on this board. It's something I am cognizant of but never really put assumption into it materializing.

Yeah slight tick NW still east of 95/Cape Cod scraper.

I'm just concerned with how deep that southern trough digs that's what's going to decide the fate of this storm. If it doesn't dig as much it will allow that leading s/w to develop further north to give it the track you need. Mean spreads are really low with the amplitude of that trough so that's where my cause for concern lies but model guidance also has a tendency to struggle with anything originating in Mexico so there's that to keep in mind as well.

What's interesting is that the GFS has been doing that for the past couple days with that s/w flip-flopping from being high amplitude to low amplitude.

It may have to do with the lack of data over the ocean which models base their grid forecasts off of. I'm not a modeler but it's just a thought because I forecast wind gusts out of the west quite frequently for other airports all over the CONUS and they verify more often than not. For the stations I forecast for in CA it's not often I have to forecast gusty westerly winds unless it's in the Bay Area which come to think of it doesn't always verify, but that may be because of what I said above, or simply because of topographical influences (which I'm leaning more towards). For SoCal, any gusts I forecast for are usually (almost always) Santa Ana related but those aren't westerly.

Gonna need a box of tissues for that jet streak

Not surprised GFS op is east GEFS has kept it east past few runs. One thing I am concerned about is the lack of spread amongst H5 around 12Z on February 1st.

Just missed the 6 month anniversary of the Cape Cod tornadoes. That was a fun event to dissect once it was over.

EPS is allowed one swing and a miss it's been pretty consistent overall. My only concern is GEFS is also east so may indicate the start of something but I wouldn't go into full punt mode yet; still too early imo.

He had a terrible season forecasting-wise I just remember looking at his forecast with the same mindset of looking at the GEM 240 hours out.

I remember that storm....lots of blown forecasts with that one.

I still think putting stock in the ens more than the ops is the way to lean at this point regardless of what model you look at. You know how much op models flip flop

I can't imagine the hype that storm will draw after this one lol

Yeah idk where that post was but Weatherbell has let me down 2x in 48 hrs not thrilled but it's on the company's dollar so it's w/e. Pivotal is such a great site I usually jump between that and Weatherbell. I just don't look at the Ukie enough to know who has the better graphics but I think that question just got answered.

Ukie is thirsty. It's wants a Miller A on draft. Unimpressive if you are coastal SNE, but not for anyone else.

Save some beer for the Ukie...

Don't want to put too much stock in anything this far out but GEFS has gotten considerably better with the location and amplitude of that mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest. Granted 12Z GFS was garbage but this is a great transition amongst mean spread plots.

It's also good to see all the ensembles are right around the benchmark.

Best run yet from what I remember for this storm from an ensemble perspective.

Don't see a noticeable difference with the EPS compared to previous run.

WeatherBell must be behind if ya'll are already posting 12Z EPS. I know WSI gets it faster than most model sites just didn't think it was that much faster than WeatherBell. Edit: I got it now. Life resumes...