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It's Always Sunny

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Everything posted by It's Always Sunny

  1. It's Always Sunny
    Some activity of interest in the stratosphere...
  2. It's Always Sunny
  3. It's Always Sunny
    I can't seem to locate this graphic on weathermodels anymore. Anyone else know where to find it? I thought it was in the same place as the city charts in the Lab.
  4. It's Always Sunny
    Plymouth, NH has 80"
  5. It's Always Sunny
    I'm offended. I was at Trillium last Saturday you can see BHO right from the brewery is was awesome. Perfect weenie drinking spot.
  6. It's Always Sunny
    Norwood has 36" Yeah Concord has 70" Nashua with 50" also, same as LWM
  7. It's Always Sunny
    Toss Blue Hill. Not a rattah but nearly half of their normal seasonal total.
  8. It's Always Sunny
  9. It's Always Sunny
    3" in KPHX is cuter.
  10. It's Always Sunny
    Southerly trend of LP seemingly improves the wind fields across N TX & E OK.
  11. It's Always Sunny
    I’m in and out on the New England forum and have seen that reference before…what’s a rattah?
  12. It's Always Sunny
    I disagree. November 2020 500mb height anomalies showed no precursor of what would come in February. If anything, it shows a strong TPV. There's way more to it than just looking at 500mb height anomalies to determine how a seasonal forecast will play out. There are still indications that the PV will be weaker than normal. That hasn't changed despite ECMWF's SEAS-5 recent output.
  13. It's Always Sunny
    Not sure who he/she is...not a good reputation?
  14. It's Always Sunny
    Too early to put stock into this but based upon my teleconnection analyses this forecast holds some merit.
  15. It's Always Sunny
    Your images don't seem to work (at least on my computer), but yeah not too often you see a 30% issued this far in advance during second severe season. 30% contour is a very defined area personally I'm a little surprised they are issuing something that specific this far out. I thought they'd keep the 15% through at least today.
  16. It's Always Sunny
    Great write-up, Jim. I haven't analyzed Modoki La Ninas as much as you, Ray and raindance have (I've been looking more into the MJOs influence on us here in TX which generated some interesting findings), but if I am understanding your blog correctly, for us here in TX, a 2nd year, weak-moderate & mixed-east based La Nina could further support the idea of "cooler" temps, correct?
  17. It's Always Sunny
    Pretty difficult forecast for N TX today. Models haven't been in too much agreement on timing or areal coverage. Morning cap has eroded with a decent cu field on satellite. Dry line off to the west should also serve as a focal point for convection not to mention westward moving outflow boundary over E TX could complicate matters further this evening.
  18. It's Always Sunny
    Yeah like Ray said that was driven mainly be by persistent -EPO. Didn’t need a -NAO that winter lol. Also before I moved here Dallas got an ice storm & snow out of it too.
  19. It's Always Sunny
    Looking at 500mb composites over the past 10 years we've done better with a +PNA/-NAO setup. A lot of it isn't textbook but there are a lot of years with near normal to below normal heights. There's obviously other factors/variables that matter but standalone that's what I'm finding at least.
  20. It's Always Sunny
    Ok yeah I had it backwards then.
  21. It's Always Sunny
    Temps could still be cold enough for snow obviously but I'm talking pattern wise a +PNA would be better.
  22. It's Always Sunny
    I'm not doubting you because you are King of the Weenies but you generally get higher heights over the NE & somewhat of a block there with warmer temps.
  23. It's Always Sunny
    You'd want a +PNA and -NAO. +PNA would give you troughing over the Northeast.
  24. It's Always Sunny
    This is the study I am referring to...when they are both in phase the effect of La Nina is more robust. https://www.nature.com/articles/srep06651 Yeah I agree with -PDO correlating with an increased probability of -PNA but I'm talking more in regards to ENSO. Idk it's really not an important teleconnection when compared to everything else especially due to it's long periodicity.
  25. It's Always Sunny
    I haven't analyzed the PDO in a while and its affects as of late but for the sake of Northeast cold (and perhaps snow), wouldn't we want to see more of a +PDO signature to mitigate the strength of La Nina? Generally New England does better during weak La Nina/ENSO neutral setups. A -PDO would only enhance La Nina, and possibly make it more central Pacific based which is what we don't want.
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