wxmeddler
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Everything posted by wxmeddler
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If the weenies want a bit of a glimmer of hope to hold onto, climatology does not support a surface low that OTS. Pretty rare.
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AIFS-Op definitely trending in the wrong direction today.
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AIFS is ever so slightly S and E of 18z which is ever so slightly further E of the 12z at 0z Sunday.
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Ugh, gonna be a pain to QC all this out. I'm hoping that the wind and sunshine today breaks most of them loose. All iced over.
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Locked in on *something* happening nearby. But I agree, it's a bit further east than we would want at this point.
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lol.. 977 on Ocean City and a CCB band from the Caribbean
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It's legitimately a 36 hr event.
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Good god man, there are children who visit this forum.
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Positive signs thus far.
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Yes, this is honestly the big takeaway. The ensemble means were all 1.3-1.6" and we passed that significantly.
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I'm well aware, but when the EuroAI Ens locks in on an idea, *something* is about to happen. Of course details are going to be scant a week out.
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Ho-Lee-Fuk
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I'll take 1 18Z Euro Please
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About 50/50 ZR/IP here now. Good thing the back end approaches.
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Those things are explosive. Bet it sounded like a cannon when it went off.
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RD-QVP from KLWX of the Storm so far. Very prominent warm nose. I'm not sure what the lower enhancement of the ZDR is. Snow Growth? If it is, our "flurries mixed in with the sleet" will be coming to an end shortly.
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Dumping sleet in this band. Sounds like pouring sand out like others have reported.
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Dry Slot is all the way back in W Tennessee, we got a bit to go here folks.
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KNHK (Pax River NAS) is reporting -FZRA. It begins.
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Yeah now that I’m thinking about it; If we get FZRA it will be exactly like concrete with the sleet as the aggregates and the ZR as the binder to fill in all the pores.
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I told everyone I know to stop shoveling at 8am. If you scrape the snow/sleet off, you’re just gonna make an ice sheet later. Better to have the snow be the pavement interface than Sleet / Freezing Rain concrete.
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Could be some Freezing Drizzle and Freezing Fog through just before sunrise as well.
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There hasn't been this kind of CAD Wedge / Storm combo in this region since 2007 (Valentines Day), and even then, this dwarfs that for the depth and strength of the cold air. You'd have to find some really old timers to remember when something like this occurred.
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As I think someone previously mentioned, if you are seeing snow. That snow was formed below the melting layer (~8,000ft-ish). So sleet that you see formed above that, and flakes formed below. For you VA folks, if you stop seeing the tiny flakes, good chance you're gonna go to FZRA within a few hours.
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To this point. Freezing Drizzle is a real concern of mine even after we get dry slotted. There is enough atmosphere above freezing but below the dry slot to develop drizzle which would then fall as FZDZ. Good Summary / Post
