Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 091805Z - 092000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts are possible as convection continues to intensify and move eastward this afternoon. A watch is likely.
DISCUSSION...Convection along a stationary boundary has shown modest intensification over the last hour near the MD/PA border. Additional convection is developing along the Blue Ridge. Sufficiently strong westerly winds across the Ridge will eventually move convection to the east. Furthermore, around 30 kt of effective shear will be present allowing for stronger storm cells and linear structures. Low-level lapse rates will continue to steepen this afternoon, though cloud cover has been greater in the vicinity of the Chesapeake Bay. Given the potential for one or more clusters to evolve this afternoon, a watch is likely to address the threat for damaging wind gusts.
..Wendt/Hart.. 07/09/2026