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wxmeddler

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Everything posted by wxmeddler

  1. wxmeddler
    More bulk shear and more low level curvature. 10-15 kt southeaserlies at the surface with 20 kt southerlies at 850 would have done the trick for tornadoes. Mid-Level dry air pocket for more widespread winds.
  2. wxmeddler
    That's over where my parents live... my mom said the traffic light was out at Lake Waterford Park. Yeah, most of the damage was north / east of MD100 / MD10.
  3. wxmeddler
    There was a fairly widespread area of 60mph+ returns on BWI TDWR from about MD10 eastward. A few pockets of 80. Not surprising.
  4. wxmeddler
    Too much moisture in the mixed phase regions for large hail production, the Wet Bulb 0C is up at 4km. Though both Frederick area and BWI impressively reported small hail despite that. The thermodynamics more represents a deep tropical look than anything else. Explains the prolific lightning production. The bulk shear above 30 kts meant we had supercells right at the start, like near Frederick. Once the wet downbursts started though, the lack of low level shear and curvature meant that any low level mesocyclone was squashed out early. To your point; The lack of any EML or capping also meant that those boundaries went and upscaled, “polluting” the environment.
  5. wxmeddler
    For the record here is the 18z LWX Balloon. Really impressive thermodynamically. Not so impressive kinematically. Shear is lackluster for anything organized.
  6. wxmeddler
    I haven't seen any reports of non-tree based damage. Most stuff I've seen has been tree damage that seems 60 mph or less.
  7. wxmeddler
    METAR KBWI 182005Z 33021G53KT 3/4SM R15R/1000V5000FT +TSRAGR BR SCT013 BKN044CB OVC100 23/22 A2986 RMK AO2 PK WND 30053/2002 WSHFT 1951 GRB05 PRESRR CONS LTGICCCCG ALQDS TS ALQDS MOV E GR 1/2 P0014 T02330222 $ 53 KTS and 1/2" Hail to boot!
  8. wxmeddler
    The most impressive wind signature of the day so far is right over BWI... will be interesting to see what they report. TDWR says 55-60 mph.
  9. wxmeddler
    I mentioned in the severe thread, but the lightning today region wide in these storms will be no joke. A combination of lots of water and lots of lift in the phase transition layer is going to equal a lot of lightning.
  10. wxmeddler
    The lightning today is no joke with all the water and MLCAPE in the phase transition layer.
  11. wxmeddler
    There is a decent meso aloft, but there's nothing about today or the storm itself that would suggest that we could see anything truly tornadic today. Too wet, and not enough SRH / Bulk Shear. If anyone does see something it will be akin to scud sucking on a the edge of an outflow boundary.
  12. wxmeddler
    The smoke today smells worse than usual. The smoke I remember out west was a straight campfire smell. This smells like campfire mixed with New Jersey (a mix of burning rubber and bad BO).
  13. wxmeddler
    Smoke can do a bunch of stuff but the two things that you see most often are: 1. Smoke can create differential heating on smoke vs. non smoke areas. Causing pseudo surface cold fronts. 2. Mid/Upper level smoke can absorb sunlight and transfer that energy to the surrounding environment; creating warmer mid-levels while also reducing surface heating. Both combined makes caps more robust than would otherwise be expected.
  14. wxmeddler
    Spreading the word from our friends over at MDE.
  15. wxmeddler
    New AQ alert levels for MD.
  16. wxmeddler
    I've seen / been in worse when I was in North Dakota directly down range... but not much worse. This is crazy for this area.
  17. wxmeddler
    One of the downsides of the smoke is that it has reduced the surface heating and therefore boundary layer depth. The high dews are not being mixed out as they would on a day without smoke.
  18. wxmeddler
    The smoke from this event are actual wildfires caused by lightning in the past week. The peat fires you talk about are real but cannot produce this much smoke.
  19. wxmeddler
    I was out on the Allegany / Garrett county border today, the smoke was definitely noticeable between the ridges.
  20. wxmeddler
    We created this animation / video of the heat indices over the heatwave. 380,000 data points in 5 minutes. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1reTXiqRwfQw1g8udC0H29Po6FsajkJVt/view?usp=sharing
  21. wxmeddler
    There was a sharp cut-off there. The Red X is where the Prince Frederick mesonet site is. It got the short end of the stick.
  22. wxmeddler
    @Mrs.J Can I send this into the NWS and the county EM?
  23. wxmeddler
    Looks like you're getting your wish.
  24. wxmeddler
    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 091805Z - 092000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts are possible as convection continues to intensify and move eastward this afternoon. A watch is likely. DISCUSSION...Convection along a stationary boundary has shown modest intensification over the last hour near the MD/PA border. Additional convection is developing along the Blue Ridge. Sufficiently strong westerly winds across the Ridge will eventually move convection to the east. Furthermore, around 30 kt of effective shear will be present allowing for stronger storm cells and linear structures. Low-level lapse rates will continue to steepen this afternoon, though cloud cover has been greater in the vicinity of the Chesapeake Bay. Given the potential for one or more clusters to evolve this afternoon, a watch is likely to address the threat for damaging wind gusts. ..Wendt/Hart.. 07/09/2026
  25. wxmeddler
    Baseline SVR T-Storm for Northern Loudoun / Southern Frederick Edit: FFW for southern Frederick suburbs now.
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