wxmeddler

Please, and thank you.

Oh, Nice catch! There was a band of clouds there pretty much all night, blocked the longwave radiation cooling. Likely also prevented a sturdier inversion from developing and calming the winds at the surface.

Classic that we dedicate a whole 8 page thread to a NCRFB and then 3 days later get an actual thunderstorm

That's impressive yet also quite sad. Highest gusts have only been 40-45 at most. That sign was begging to die.

The longer range hi-res guidance is adverting a Narrow Cold-Frontal Rain Band (NCRFB) like feature for Sunday evening. This makes sense given the high shear / low (no?) instability. If we can't get proper severe, at least a NCRFB is "cool" meteorologically.

I went to Os game when they were in town and he hit 2 hrs off his first two AB’s. Just amazing human. If you watch old clips of the late slugger greats, I always noticed that it looks like they just chip the ball, not hard swings. Othani does the same. He hits HRs seemingly effortlessly.

All of it in-fact.

Clarksville and Layhill, both shallow sites, reached 36. Only briefly though.

This is one heck of a front, dynamics look great, just need moisture.

Wow! You think someone would tell me if these things are happening but I find out from here. Thanks for forwarding on!

Saturday, probably ok. Increasing clouds. Sunday, breezy, more clouds, somewhere between drizzle/light rain and an absolute washout. Monday: Breezy and light rain

You are wise to use this rule... Why are you here again? The s/w coming in and how far west that dives in is the key to this. The more west the more the track sticks to the coastline. Some of the high-res guidance (NSSL-MPAS, RRFS) are back into the OH/IN border. Little bit of a global vs high-res discrepancy starting to emerge.

Did some digging this morning. Obviously the dynamic models are struggling with the evolution of the s/w cutoff low breaking from the main stream. The lack of upper air data up that way doesn't help. The main factor in east/west placement of the precip is how far east/west the s/w stalls out. GFS places it further west near Sandusky, while the Euro has it towards Erie/Buffalo. This matters as the main precip hit is following the 700mb frontogenic forcing in the lead-up to the two cutoff's merging. There is some correlated jet coupling going on too.

GFS has at least stuck to it's guns. And we can never forget that it did, yes.

So some version of this is really happening huh. Dang, what a weird thing this is gonna turn out to be.

The rain gauge is responding to commands. So it's not broken. I called the folks down there and they said it did rain, but "barely anything". Could be that it got some debris in it. Someone will be up there tomorrow to inspect / clear it out.

Just saw the 0z Euro. That is uh... something.

We'll take it:

It's not technically tropical because it's not a "warm core" system. It's attached to a frontal boundary and has characteristics of a mid-latitude cyclone. Regardless, the impacts on the beaches will be the same as a weak tropical storm. Erosion/Overwash in the normal places is likely in the OBX.

GFS is lost. Toss it.

It got a lot warmer than I thought it would today. Clouds kept the temps down east of the Blue Ridge

Needed more wind or more fair weather cumulus. But a 9/10 day. Gulf Stream low getting pulled north looks interesting coming into the weekdays.

A perfect light soaking rain last night. Just enough to reprieve the short root grasses and alleviate tree leave stress. The farmers... are not happy, too little for a proper late season growth spurt, and just enough to make everything that has reached maturity damp.

This back door marine flow is not going to let go.

Not a cloud for Howard Co area and west to the Alleghenies http://mesonet.umd.edu/Clarksville