wxmeddler
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Everything posted by wxmeddler
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Just for you Jeb
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Agreed, surface inversion is going to hold tight. Bay is pretty cold as well, that should discourage mixing the bigtime gusts. Straight pressure gradient is going to still kick it to gale force though (35 kts). Need an anemometer on top of the bay bridge.
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Friends don't let friends use the 3KM NAM for Wind Gusts
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Wow, actual high wind watch for Somerset and VA Eastern Shore counties
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Gonna be done here shortly... Comma head is going by and dryslot incoming.
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Newest aircraft departure sounding 20 min ago. Still could wetbulb in the lowest levels but saturated around 850 would be sleet/rain mix
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It's pretty clear from the depth of the warm layer that most if not all of the snow east of I-81 is going to be 8:1 slop. The depth also throws out any elevation advantages in the Piedmont out the window. Best we can hope for is rates and dynamic cooling overcome.
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It used to, it doesn't much anymore in the past 5 years or so. DMV Winds from GOES and NPP-Era sounders do most of the heavy lifting these days. Balloons are good for calibration and reality check.
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I "like" the RGEM take on things, probably a bit too wet but good representation of what we're thermally dealing with.
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Wow, that's a really flat wave from the NAM. Way outside the consensus.
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It probably will. This is a N MoCo / Carroll and west event. Will probably even get tricky with RA/SN in the lower elevations the Monocacy River Valley.
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This is what I'd call a "High Chance of Disappointment" Profile. Even higher elevation won't save you from the mixed bag possibility. Go west young man!
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Almost no change to the overall look between 12z and 18z over mid-atl. Might be settling in. GFS still wiggling around. Looks like a solid hit to the classic northern/higher elevation spots (Fredrick/Carroll/ WV PH / MD PH)
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Still lots of change going on... trend for now seems to be a much weaker/flatter wave. Classic trend towards the gulf stream baroclinic zone as well.
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Wait for the PIVOT..
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Thankfully the trend has been more offshore with the LLJ winds... There is an insane patch of ocean though that is going to be 50G80kts offshore in the warm waters though. Heck of a swell coming for New England.
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Cold sinks gonna cold sink
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Only the NAM is trying to bring some of those 925mb winds down to the surface. Given the water temperatures off the coast and the easterly flow, I'm not sure how successful those winds are going to mix down. Real knife edge though, as if it doesn't mix it's 30G40 but it does you get 40G60+..
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I'd thought I'd dust off the ol' account now that I'm back on the area. ..and thank you!
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I'm very tired...
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Yeah, DCA's winds just bumped up with that temp jump. There seems to be a bit more momentum transfer / mixing than expected. Only thing left not fully feeling it is Fredrick with 41 and NE'erlies still.
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DCA TAMDAR aircraft at 2:58z had 50 kts at ~950mb (1900ft). Peak of LLJ at ~912mb (2800ft) with 63 kts. Nearly isothermal from SFC to that height.
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Looking at some TAMDAR soundings from DCA and BWI. There's a dry layer just under 700, but the near sfc dews in the 20's (and teens just above) from the NE is really the killer.
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Nov. 25th-26th Midwest Snowstorm Potential
wxmeddler replied to Malacka11's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
If it's blue, it's a transformer. If it's purple, it's lightning. On most cameras at least, unless you have some crazy white balance.
