wxmeddler

H5 is back even a tad further west at Hr 0. Good grief lol.

That's rain. For elevations near sea level, with surface temps above freezing need at least 925mb temps at -2C for SnowTV.

When they scream it sounds like hundreds of chainsaws?

Sloptastic

All worship the rate deities. TROWAL be our light.

If this was just colder with some CAD to start, this would have been beautiful with the "new" track. 700mb low slides right over top of us with the 850mb low just over southern MD. *chef's kiss*

Also the northern stream s/w is a bit faster than expected 48 hrs ago (this is also what's bringing in the cold air aloft), and perhaps a tad stronger.

No, it's the timing of how the southern stream cut off low ejects, it's been getting slower / further west. Allowing the northern stream s/w over SK/MB/ND to kick it further south.

Additionally, I still don't trust relying on a TROWAL to deliver us the goods without an incipient CAD regime in place in front of an apps runner.

Stacked cut off low's are always hard to time ejection, but agreed. This is particularly bad. Compounded by the fact it allows time for the "cold" air to filter in from Canada.

It's because the GFS has gotten stronger with the s/w aloft. If you look at 300mb at 02-13 00z, the area of greatest difluence was over SW VA but with the stronger s/w, it's moved 100 miles NW towards KY/S OH. That isn't much aloft, but damn does that 100 miles mean a lot for advection at the surface with the apps in the way.

Primary 850mb low goes up to about Wheeling, and the secondary forms around Wilmington. Oof.

Stronger and a hair further north with the primary low. More WAA moving in across the area.

Ironically the stronger GFS with the wave leads to going negative tilt sooner leading to low pressure development west of the apps. Brings in too much WAA before the CCB can wrap back around.

Interesting that the 12z Euro has a faster transition to negative tilt aloft. It's not as strong as the GFS but it's bending towards the GFS evolution. Still, relying on the cold conveyor belt for snow on a rapidly departing system is a bold move cotton.

There's no saving it with a further west neutral or even positive tilt system as it passes us.

I wanna know what the GFS is on, because it's good stuff whatever it is. It's got cooling 850 temps while warm air advection is happening.

Trend is definitely for a wetter system, but the trade off is that it goes negative tilt sooner, leading to a further west low.

If the GFS gets any more pinched off with the s/w we're just gonna get a bowling ball that runs too far south..

I'm overall dubious about the cold air coming in hard from the E/NE late in the game as shown by the GFS. That might work if there was a modified arctic high sitting over Quebec, but there isn't here.

lol

lol, didn't even have to look

I can't wait till it comes north only for the CAD to be too dry and we get nothing before the WAA comes in and gives us rain.

DC hit 77 that day.. Top 10: 1 79.0 1950-01-26 2 77.0 2002-01-30 - 77.0 1932-01-15 4 76.0 1975-01-29 - 76.0 1937-01-09 - 76.0 1932-01-14 - 76.0 1927-01-22 - 76.0 1907-01-07 - 76.0 1890-01-12 10 75.0 1975-01-11

No guidance had us getting into the upper 70's / flirting 80... We must really be mixing from up top.