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wxmeddler

Professional Forecaster
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Everything posted by wxmeddler

  1. wxmeddler
    The wind profile / hodograph dictates that isolated supercells would be the dominant mode of producing tornadoes. There doesn't seem to be much appetite from CAM's to pop cells in the open warm sector despite temperatures nearing / at convective temperature. Best bet is perhaps if the main line downscales into more isolated segments, and end up with a QLCS type threat.
  2. wxmeddler
    All the dynamic parameters are screaming tornado potential. The thermo's are a bit lacking but if we get some sunshine.... All we need is storm mode. I mean... this is damn good looking (boxed average for MoCo/Howard/Frederick/Caroll
  3. wxmeddler
    This is amazing. I've missed this community when I was away.
  4. wxmeddler
    C+ MD/PA line B- at I-70 B between I-70 and US50 B+ US50 and south Lower eastern shore I'd call this an A- season. Overall B for Garrett County / WV Highlands.
  5. wxmeddler
    If you are in the lower elevations near the choptank or you are surrounded by fields you could make up that 3F easy with just radiational cooling.
  6. wxmeddler
    This back door font originating air mass is so dry that while it's temperature was modified by the sea, the dew point was not raised high enough to condense into the normal back-door effect.
  7. wxmeddler
    I got a tiny burn on my neck but I had that sweatshirt on, had nothing else. First burn of the season! Station coming "online" later today!
  8. wxmeddler
    Fresh (ie. still fluffy) snow is way more effective at longwave radiation emission than hardpack snow.
  9. wxmeddler
    Even if Feb is normal, we would still be way below normal for DJF.
  10. wxmeddler
    The dew points would indicate most of the area above the fall line could get to zero by morning if you have good snow cover.
  11. wxmeddler
    Hi. I actually do meteorological instrumentation as my profession. Temperature measurement is are actually very reliable and is the easiest of the weather parameters to measure. The mercury thermometers made 100-200 years ago were very accurate (to within 1°F). As far as calibration, traditional ice water and a boiling water stove provide an accurate 2 point calibration that is still used today. Now is is true that modern thermometers are more precise. We can reliably measure temperatures to 0.01°F in laboratory settings and 0.1°F in natural settings. But for climatology that is all you need.
  12. wxmeddler
    Really obvious where the heavier snow fell:
  13. wxmeddler
    Heavily rimed snow / graupel in Silver Spring.
  14. wxmeddler
    This is unfolding about how I thought it would. Maybe slightly more NW (30 -ish miles) than expected but that may change as we pivot and it comes east.
  15. wxmeddler
    0z Euro pretty much aligns with my thoughts perfectly. 18z AIFS nailed my thinking though.
  16. wxmeddler
    I'm just sitting here leaning on the Euro/EPS general 1-3. I think if a band sets up anywhere it will be Loudoun / N. MoCo / S. Fredrick / Carroll / N. Balt / York. Somewhere should get 6.
  17. wxmeddler
    Yeah, it took a hot minute for it to saturate down.
  18. wxmeddler
    Amazing
  19. wxmeddler
    The H5 over upper midwest has been sheared out into a big + tilt trough, not what we're looking for.
  20. wxmeddler
    More positively tilted and a bit of a wave disconnect in over the northern GL's at 90 hrs.
  21. wxmeddler
    18z Euro Ensemble has some members with a tucked in surface low close to the coast at h120. Waiting on graphics.
  22. wxmeddler
    1-3... "hmm" or "hey" Otherwise this is solid. 10+ for FOLKS seems like a decent threshold.
  23. wxmeddler
    It's a tad bit more progressive than 12z but it still is a major hit.
  24. wxmeddler
    Officially 10:1 at DCA
  25. wxmeddler
    I have to say I’m a bit disappointed in the flake quality. Not nearly supersaturated enough upstairs to get the dendritic growth. This is mostly looking like plates. The kuchera stan’s are gonna get a surprise when they stick their ruler in for this part of the storm. 8:1 to 11:1 Edit: It should get better when we get to the firehose stage of the storm in 4-6hrs from now.
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