Met1985

12z euro. Not good. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Big storms rolling through. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN MACON...JACKSON...EAST CENTRAL SWAIN AND CENTRAL HAYWOOD COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM EDT... At 1249 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 10 miles northwest of Waynesville to 10 miles south of Sylva to 7 miles north of Clayton. Movement was northeast at 25 mph. HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Locations impacted include... Sylva, Waynesville, Franklin, Cherokee, Cullowhee, Lake Junaluska, Highlands, Maggie Valley, Balsam, and Webster. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Yeah it does. I really don't think it will move much more than it has because of the Apps and the steering current.

Yeah that's not good at all.

12z gfs Helene run Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Looks like the upper low pushes is a bit further east this run.

12z gfs honing in on the predecessor rainfall. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

12z gfs. Predecessor rainfall. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Yeah and if Helene comes through like the models are showing this is underestimating totals. I know I said that yesterday but this is a big issue if true. That's basically 5 to 10 inches plus for several in the viewing area.

I remember this back then because we had those really cold winters back to back. I remember this circulating into more violent storms across the world and the USA. Very interesting indeed.

Don't look now but we have flooding concerns even before Helene gets here. 12z NAM. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Storms already firing this morning. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Thank you Don. Much appreciated and love to continue to learn about this. As many have mentioned we are in new territory with all this is seems.

This predecessor rainfall event may be a death blow to us. This keeps inching more and more into our area for heavy rainfall from this first upper low. 12z NAM... Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

As I say the above just to help keep things grounded but the way things look currently we are in fact in the bullseye with this thing and as mentioned from previous post in the tropical thread this thing might be moving at 25mph. Good for cutting down on rainfall rates a but but bad because the wind field will be mostly intact and that could be very damaging to the area.

So if I'm reading this correct Don, this would not bode well for NAO blocking during the winter months? I can't really remember when we had just decent blocking in September at all.

I know the past couple days the forecast has called for us to get absolutely hammered. Until this thing hits the coast I'd err on the side of caution. Even small little tweaks in the forecast will lead to big impacts for all of us.

It's happened a few times like that which has been an absolute natural disaster of larger proportions.

It is amazing! Beautiful pics!

Oh yeah absolutely beautiful! Forgot about that one.

@jburnsis the man! Let our March towards winter begin!

@jburnscould you pin this and unpin our summer thread please? Thank you kind sir!

Lol I was going to ask you to make it this year. Hopefully you bring some good mojo.

Yeah you should definitely check out shinning rock, Graveyard fields, dupont park, highlands, Cashiers, and a lot of other places scattered around. Beech and up that way is beautiful but in general WNC as a whole has a lot to offer.