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Everything posted by Met1985

  1. At the current state we are looking at a ton of rainfall and not a snowstorm or any winter weather storm. We will see a glancing blow of cold air and that's it. The ensembles look meh and the operational models don't give any hope.
  2. Yeah I think you are right. I think it is definitely contributing to the volatility of the models. I mean I can't remember when we had such swings on all the models from run to run.
  3. You know I've been thinking us pretty much switching the enso state is causing the models to really go crazy. The signal is complex and off because of that. I think we are going to have a damn cold spring because if it also.
  4. Temp down to 24 already. Going to be mighty cold tonight. Also the gefs looks good from the 2nd on. Seems like we aren't punting this little chance for some winter weather currently... Am I optimistic? No. Am I pessimistic? No. I'm watching and waiting...
  5. Had a skiff of snow this morning with temps in the 30s all day. The forcing with this was never really there. Will be waiting for more rain this Sunday.
  6. Great news! I bet that was freaking scary as crap. Thank gosh for bathtubs.
  7. Good thing it's Ensembles disagree with the operational.
  8. The gfs Ensembles don't agree with the operation at all. I completely understand the frustration but the Ensembles really haven't changed that much the past several runs. Cold works in her around the 2nd through the 9th but things may teter back and fourth a bit. Take a deep breath and enjoy life.
  9. I will gladly punt the rest of this winter if I don't have to see this piece of junk pattern again for another decade. Yeah same here.
  10. The 18z gfs operation doesn't look good either. Doesn't really make a great push of cold air in here at all. The negative epo just dumps west and the SER flexes and the trough cuts north of us.
  11. Not sure if it's a blip because of the supercomputer outage on the euro but wow is it ugly after this next storm and the ensembles kind of agree. The cold air is pushed back to the 4th on the 12z eps now. Again maybe a blip but this is why I have little to no faith currently in us seeking a change anytime soon that is really meaningful.
  12. That's crazy even with your snowpack... Current temp this morning is 15 degrees. Done chilling cold with no snowpack.
  13. Yeah it's flipping freezing out especially with a bit of a breeze out.
  14. 18z gfs says lets do super cold all over again at the first of February...
  15. 18z gfs looks awesome for the northern mountains with this next system... Everyone else is sucking dust lol. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
  16. The euro looks pathetic with this next system. Im leaning towards the euro because it was anemic looking for today's snowfall and it was right. It beat the gfs and the NAM. The mid to long range looks really good from about February 2nd until about the 9th or 10th. On all the ensembles this range looks really good. The only problem is that it's 11 days away. We will see if this is the same song and dance bullcrap from the models.
  17. Current temp of 29 degrees with on and off snow with a dusting. This is more of a westerly flow. Not that great for myself but better for places like Maggie Valley.
  18. The 12z euro is not as enthusiastic as the American models Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
  19. 18z gfs looks great for the northern mountains. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
  20. The 18z NAM looks great for the northern mountains. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
  21. Lets do some analysis today. This is todays snapshot of the 12z eps run today. For my variable point of the 30th of this month then 10 days out. The eps has cooled a lot since yesterday. Could be because of the current SSW that will start tomorrow in the Arctic. There is a lot of volatility on the ensembles which makes me think that the whole northern hemisphere is going to experience a big shift soon. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
  22. Lol at least yall will make up for such a dry Fall this way. At least one positive.
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