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Everything posted by Met1985

  1. The GFS run to run models have zero continuity. And it's moving high and low pressure hundreds of miles from run to run. Either the new upgrade to the gfs sucks that bad or this whole pattern change is a farce....
  2. The Euro weeklies look great from the 15th onwards... All good signs and lines up for our target date.
  3. Yeah and not only the OP but the ensembles are doing the same thing on drastic changes from run to run....
  4. From what im reading and researching is that the gfs is having a very tough time handling the forming block in the Northern hemisphere. No doubt the PNA region is crapping things up but I don't think we go full torch either...
  5. The hell with the gfs currently. Been doing a lot of reading and I don't think the gfs has a clue on what's going on with the blocking pattern taking shape. I think the euro has a better grasp on things.
  6. From what I've been reading that the gfs just had an update but it's verification scores are lower than the old gfs. I think that explains some big swings in model run to model run. Not sure about the gfs ensembles though. Im sticking with the Euro currently.
  7. Yeah it's downright raw today. We will come on way low and well below average.
  8. Current temp is down to 27 degrees with heavy frost. Todays high now is 48... One thing im noticing is that temps are getting tapered down a lot come the day of. Just like this mornings low was only supposed to be 34 degrees and today's high just a few days ago was supposed to be 64 degrees. Instead we have seen a 15 degree to colder and if the overnight euro is correct then the warmth we were supposed to get will be muted greatly.
  9. The 18z shows the potential of this upcoming pattern. I wouldn't get worked up about what you see but just know that this is a possibility especially after the 12th...
  10. Yeah the target date was always around December 15th... We know the models have a massively hard time with large pattern changes and this is no different in my opinion.
  11. A lot of chatter on the pattern coming up. One thing I can say is that we are going to be wet. Lots of showers and rainfall which isn't really bad. Currently it looks like the pattern might be changing mid month. To me the later the better because our climo just gets more and more favorable as the month goes on.
  12. Temp down to 28 degrees, Christmas tree is decorated, putting up outside lights, hot chocolate is hot, and Polar Express is on for the kids.... All is well.
  13. Yeah this is a very anomalous setup which the workings for this are already underway. No way the OP models have a firm grasp on crap currently. The ensembles are the way to go currently.
  14. That's definitely the way to go. Ensembles all the way. The OP models don't have a clue.
  15. Yeah temps are dropping. Down to 45 currently and windy. Going to be cold tonight. Probably some teens around. We will warm up the first of next week but it's all part of the plan. This blocking is very deep and extreme guys. We've not seen this in some 10 plus years...
  16. Yeah the operationals are going to be swinging a bit with this near record or record blocking in the NAO regions. I wouldn't be surprised to see a storm pop up inside 5 to 7 days out of the blue given the extreme dynamics of this upper level weather pattern.
  17. Also all is go with the December pattern change. Lots of noise out there but just be patient.
  18. Yeah this rainfall was no joke. I nice steady soaking rain here in Haywood which we needed it because we had a 500 acre fire burning.
  19. Also guys venture out into the forum in general. There is a lot of great into in the TN VALLEY thread, the Mid Atlantic thread and in the NEW England thread as well.
  20. Yeah the interesting thing was that last year didn't we see a record PNA for the season when it was so negative?
  21. Im sure we are going to see some crazy solutions regarding the significance of this block in the NAO region. I read in the Mid Atlantic forum that some models are spitting out the highest pressure ever recorded in Greenland. With a block to this magnitude who knows what we see from the models....
  22. The pattern continues to look great after the 5th especially around mid month. There are going to be some major changes in the pattern from top to bottom. The biggest thing is the depth of blocking in the NAO and AO regions which we have not seen in a long time. The ensembles continues to look good. The op models will change from run to run especially during a huge pattern shift as we will see. So if you are hedging bets on the controls then you'll go insane. All in all im very excited for the opportunity for winter weather coming for the second half of December.
  23. December 5th and on have been the time frame for the transition. As you can see this is the 3rd. I mean if you are just being pessimistic then just say so. IMO a pattern change later in the month will be much better according to climo....
  24. There are sublet differences but the GFS and the EPS are both showing some impressive blocking setting up especially with the retrograding Scandinavian block which usually leads to great blocking for us. The negative NAO is west based also so that is a huge help. The date im looking at for significant changes are December the 5th which is less than 10 days away.
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