Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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All the stronger solutions track further northeast. Although recon found the center pretty far south, it is broad and weak enough that it can still reform.
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It has a very impressive dual outflow channel for the next 48hrs before it makes landfall.
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Still too early. These circulations always close off and start deepening rapidly 6 hrs before landfall.
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Unusually good structure for a landfalling spout.
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Euro is ugly CMC UKMET NAVGEM ICON all like the idea of a Bahamas/FL storm and a west central gulf storm day 6-7, so I'm not totally buying the Euro. I'd actually be a little surprised if the favorable conditions yielded nothing.
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Upgraded to Hurricane. RAW ADT is 6.0 with 1.7T/6hr constraint set. They only set that limit when a storm is about to nuke.
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I think Patricia was close, but I don't recall what the exact percentages were.
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Not too shaby
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97L declared. GFS now shows something heading into the NE Yucatan late week. How strong it gets will depend on how quickly it gets going and how well it avoids land.
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GEPS FTW
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Finally some sub 1000mb lows in the basin on the CMC at hr 180.
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Models have been going nuts with 95E which is not supposed to develop for another 30 hrs. If it can stay away from the Mexican coast, there is a good chance this system makes cat 5 given the environment it's in.
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I am wondering how Carolina shelf waters are so warm after Isaias. Maybe that's an error or they changed the calculation? There's TCHP along the coast in a lot of other places where there wasn't much before 2020
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Seems Philly is getting most of the rain this year.
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Am I seeing 64 for a low Monday night? We should through a party the first night it drops below 65.
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There some opportunity for a storm in the SE Caribbean next week if something can get going south of the shear and north of the south american coast. Felix was able to do this in a similar pattern but there isn't much room.
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I'm never impressed with lots of low quality struggling Tropical Storms. I don't see anything on models in the next 15 days that looks exciting. Here are some examples of 60 day stretches in the Atlantic that produced at least 4 major hurricanes. I will consider the upcoming hyped "Active Period" in the Atlantic a bust if it can't do it. 7 of the past 25 years have. AUG-SEPT 1995 4 Major hurricanes AUG-SEPT 1996 4 Major hurricanes AUG-SEPT 1999 4 Major Hurricanes AUG-SEPT 2004 6 Major Hurricanes SEPT-OCT 2005 4 Major Hurricanes AUG-SEPT 2010 5 Major Hurricanes AUG-SEPT 2017 5 Major Hurricanes
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HRDPS had a line through Chicago just about every run.
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Possibly the 49mph gust that took Danbury off the grid for the past week.
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Looks like the lines did merge, this was keeping the mesovotex from lifting north. Not good for Chicago,
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They put out a PDS watch. Don't see how the high risk designation does much to improve the the threat communication.
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Another MCS is forming to the north of the main one. There maybe a merger in N central IL.
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50yd path length, That's about the shortest I've ever seen. At the speed it was moving, it died within 5 seconds of coming ashore. That house got really unlucky.
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The 40 days between Aug 20- Oct1 appears to be the main stretch in hurricane season. Almost every active season has had above average ACE in that stretch. Really can't say much about the season by what happens before then.
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Too much. CT Trees are taller and it would be a lot harder to install those because of all the rocks and steep hills. But probably way cheaper and easier than burying them.
