Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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RGEM and ICON look weaker too. Last nights 18z EURO and 00z GFS might have been the best runs.
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GFS trended northwest with the track and saucier with the jackpot. It's within a run or two of matching the euro and it's 700mb frontogenisis max matches well with where the Euro had the jackpot. NE PA to NW ME. If the deathband formed there, it would match the Euro.
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It did a very good job tracing the snow swath it put out 12z. Maybe some higher amounts, but everything is in the same spot in general.
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18z ICON is my favorite run by far because it turns the elongated frontal wave into a bowling ball the fastest and deforms the crap out of NH and the berks. Best chance for someone to get a foot.
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Euro going to show a second system Sunday night- Monday.
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ICON and RGEM also really amped up. I think this will be like every other thing I thought was worth watching this year, it will burn my eyes, and the GFS will prove itself a joke.
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GFS has splits the vortex in Quebec and has a lobe over Maine. Thats what's keeping everything suppressed.
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Traces up and down I95. Won't verify in the DC metro of course.
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The Euro has been at least somewhat consistent.
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CMC rides the low up the front much quicker, hence it's further north with the track. Looks like north of Albany to Portland gets some snow. Unusal for May, but a lot less insane than the GFS.
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Models have been all over the place with this system the past 36hrs, so I'd think there's well above average uncertainty on the track and intensity of that low for 5 days out.
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Looks like models abandon the idea of crushing the southern stream with the PV day 4-5. I thought I was losing my mind there for a while.. Now looks like a phase,. Rain and wind, with some pretty insane windchills for May.
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18z GFS is close to something but it gets crushed by the PV. A very odd problem to have in May
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That looks so similar to the March 2013 snowfall forecast map, I almost puked when I saw it.
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Is there a record for most concave squall line?
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Ripping on the webcam east of Bennington.
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Hopefully it's not a big problem.
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That wasn't my point. Read the last item on the list.
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Seems Legit New York ----------------277,445 New Jersey-------------102,196 Massachusetts-------50,969 California ---------------40,812 Pennsylvania----------40,149 Illinois---------------------39,658 Michigan----------------36,641 Florida--------------------30,533 Africa ---------------------28,109
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All models have been showing the best rates on the front end of this. NAM has a second deform band on the back end of the storm, that forms farther east than the first one. -
The evolution of the storm looks a lot like December 2003. Late phase and High pressure to the north that doesn't weaken. The precip shield moves very erratically
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That also looks like a crazy banding signature over central NE. Probably similar to Oct 2011.
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Just needs a brief touchdown in MS
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Should be at the MS border around midnight or maybe 11:45
