Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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978mb this pass. 65kt sfmr, but it's flagged. Edit: Extrap was lower but drop was 984mb again.
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This could be a Cozumel/Cancun strike, yes. And a powerful one at that. I am aggressive on initial maximum intensity by the Yucatán Channel regardless if it strikes the NE Yucatán or skirts through. Hard to get in the center of a pinhole eye, but Cancun is in a pretty bad spot.
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Gotta consider the possibility of it hitting the Yucatan now since it's south of the forecast track
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986mb extrapolated 55kt sfmr The center is also at 16.1 N which is south of where most models had it.
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Weakens from 968mb to 994mb before it hits.
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Convecction is rapidly expanding to the NW of a storm. There is almost a line where it starts. I remember several other storms showing this type of signature before RI.
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GFS 978mb at 48hrs this run. Also further south giving it more time to bomb. Edit Bottoms out at 966hrs. Core organized at around 30hrs 992mb probably Cat1. Avoids land and doesn't start to hit the cooler waters in the gulf until around 66hrs. That would give it 36hrs. Only thing keeping the environment from being perfect is Gamma,. Hard to tell if Gamma decides to bail out or hang in there, it's been inconsistent from run to run.
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The simulated IR we've been waiting for all season.
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GFS gets down to 978mb in the central gulf, but the northern gulf shear wall kicks in full force this run. Looks like 40-50 knots as it's making landfall in SE LA. Going to get shredded. Actually hoping for a similar scenario. Just make it a Cat5 in the southern gulf then weaken it back to a TS before landfall.
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Over the warmest waters of the basin for the next 60 hrs. It would easily make cat 5 if it was already a 995mb TS. Too bad it's a 1007mb swirl thats going to need another 24-36hrs to get it's act together.
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GFS and CMC both make landfall in S MS. However they differ on timing, intensity and whether it's Delta or Gamma making landfall. One of the more interesting model wars I've seen.
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Gamma did not watch out for Delta this GFS run.
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Models combining Gamma and 92L into the ultimate slopgyre
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THe GFS and GEFS shifted closer to Florida with the Track. Most of the FL impact members are 980-1005mb which would be a TS or Cat1 Also, there is some pretty strong cape to the east of this disturbance. Likely there's going to be some impressive convective blobs which will complicate the forecast.
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GFS Para is the new 3km NAM, it's done this all season.
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Would not give up on it this yet. The main issues preventing it from taking off are land interaction and competing centers. On the plus side there's low shear and a potential stall over the warmest waters in the basin. Too soon to tell 4 days out. Edit: It was mostly cynical troll Ldub23 writing it off.
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GFS has a 971mb Cat2 making landfall just north of BE in MX. Still an ongoing trend north with the track every run. I think it may eventually end up taking a Charlie like track across Cuba into SW FL.
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Depends what you consider western Sandy and Mathew made it to eastern Cuba Otto November 2016 hit Panama Rina 2011 was near the Yucatan. and in October.
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There is a trend, slowly but surely.
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Beta not going to be a winddstorm. Gotta watch that feeder band over LA. It's forecast to stall for 60 hrs. It might be able to produce a little more than the 6-10" of rain the GFS is showing.
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ECMWF also came way northeast with it's track. Looks like landfall near Port O'connor. Edit. So much for stalling along the coast stalls over San Antonio this run.
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CMC with an even wackier solution than 12z. Stalls near TX then moves Southeast and stalls near the Yucatan, the starts moving back NW again.
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I'll consider it part of the basin when a storm comes out of there and makes landfall in Florida. It's connected to the Atlantic, but so it the Pacific.
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CMC shows even more of a 2020 solution. Stalls 20 Miles off the TX coast for 3 days, then hits Florida.
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Here's a loop of the Euro not nailing Sally. It just waited to long to make it's move.
