Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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He doesn't officially state why they turned back, but sounds like it was rough.
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It's been making more progress west the past few hours. It stalled just long enough to bust my prediction that the new eyewall would not have a chance to takeover.
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Anything but yesterdays 12z euro which had it ducking under the troff. That was a practically impossible stunt.
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This was supposed to be inland a long time ago. It's running around in circles offshore.
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Euro finally bringing ETA across Cuba. Took it longer than just about every other model. It has not been great with TC tracks this year.
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I haven't seen an update from the old recon in 45minutes other than the sonde.
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Bust cancel
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Not enough time for an eyewall merger. The inner eyewall is probably still deepening though.
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Don't ask me why but the HWRF is actually showing the strongest winds in the southwest quad
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This actually confirms my suspicion that Haiyan was much higher than 895mb. Josh measured 960mb a few miles from the edge of the eye, no way there was a 65mb pressure drop between him and the eye.
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Poor Goni, It was an 8.0 and only the second highest in the last week
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Good thing I didn't guess earlier. 895mb 160kts
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Gotta love the saturation. And that solid -80c ring brings the T number to 8.1!!!!!!!!! 2020NOV03 005017 6.2 942.1 119.8 6.2 6.3 8.1 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -6.22 -80.40 EYE 7 IR 20.0 14.22 82.52 ARCHER GOES16 18.7
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People are going to regret making predictions early. Odds of it being sub 900 are going up by the minute.
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I'm going to go ahead and say ETA makes up for Delta being a bust before recon gets there.
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2020NOV02 235017 6.1 944.1 117.4 6.1 6.3 7.7 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF -11.78 -78.83 EYE 8 IR 20.0 14.32 82.48 ARCHER GOES16 18.8 Only one other storm had a raw T above 7.5 in the last week
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Just for comparison. I think the color scale is still the same
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Going to be close. HMON HWRF start weakening after 3z, but still have a cat4 at 6z. It may get close to CAT 5 between now and 3z.
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ETA made a big turn to the south the last few hours. Not making much progress towards the coast at this point.
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Hoping the eye will warm a little more. It can do better than -55c
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This reminds me of flying American Airlines.
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Unfortunately from MS and not Miami, where it could get down to the storm much quicker.
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Euro is handling the southern stream trough/cutoff off the southeast coast differently than other models. It is a lot stronger and further southwest in the medium range. It pulls ETA east and stalls it instead of letting it come north.
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The 1pm upgrade was enough for a record.
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The projected landfall point is close to Puerto Cabezas, The one population center along the Nicaragua coast.
