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Amped

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Everything posted by Amped

  1. Amped
    36hrs is plenty of time to make CAT 2. Has a decent shot at CAT3 also now that it looks like the high end scenarios are verifying.
  2. Amped
    It varies depending on the storm, and the altitude, and the temperature profile. I would expect it to be higher because it's hard for the drop to hit the minimum pressure. It's just a single point. The plane flies a line giving it more sample coverage
  3. Amped
    Drop was 993mb extrap 992mb. What more do you want?
  4. Amped
    Pretty small core appears to be developing. This would increase the odds of an HWRF RI scenario, although I doubt it gets sub 950mb..
  5. Amped
    I thought the GFS was Bizzare last night. But now the 18z run highlights include. 16mb pressure drop while over Cuba 922mb snowicane in the Gulf of Maine.
  6. Amped
    Too bad it's a lock
  7. Amped
    That storm surge in Virac is going to be extremely sudden when the get in the back eyewall.
  8. Amped
    In these conditions, there's literally a better chance of it being taken out by a flying pig then staying online
  9. Amped
    Looks like Virac will get in the Eye.
  10. Amped
    GFS with one of it's most 2020 runs ever. Every other model allows the NErly flow @ 500mb to capture it and pull it SW across central America. GFS showed that a few runs ago but now changed it's mind. I think it's a fugiwara effect with a convective blob to the north that's preventing it from being pulled SW but I'm open to other suggestions. Probably nothing like this verifies.
  11. Amped
    HMON deepens from 999mb at 48hrs to 943mb at 93hrs. Solid Cat3-4 at landfall over an area that's mostly jungle.
  12. Amped
    ECMWF, CMC GFS are in good agreement on a TS south of Jamaica at 72hrs. It drifts southwest into central America on all models but takes varying amounts of time. It doesn't have time to deepen into a major Hurricane on any model however.
  13. Amped
    Didn't even make headlines with all the election stuff. There's a decent amount of damage.
  14. Amped
    The IR appearance is finally starting to degrade. Amazing because radar has been showing only a few whisker bands in the SW half of the storm since landfall
  15. Amped
    It also got onshore fast and didn't build up hours of suspense. I like watching storm chases that just cut to the chase.
  16. Amped
    Finally an actual Cat 2 observation for a Cat2 Hurricane.
  17. Amped
    Maybe it strengthens a little. If the pressure only fell 12mb in the last 12 hrs,, it's not going to make CAT3 extrapolating that rate over the next 6 hrs.
  18. Amped
  19. Amped
    This looks similar in intensity the last 3 Hurricanes to hit SE LA. Gustav, Isaac and Nate. It was a raw T 7.4 at one point last night. I think the window to deepen has just about ended. It will probably hold this intensity +-5mb up to landfall.
  20. Amped
    Middle of the night weather check. Raw T up to 7.0 This could be the best 6 hr RI of the season.
  21. Amped
    Recon only found a 991mb pressure. A little baffled too seeing as it appears to be forming an eyewall quickly.
  22. Amped
    The eye is wrapping up fairly quickly. Probably only has 8hrs left over the warm ssts. Shear kicks in in about 21hrs. 100 miles south of the LA coast.
  23. Amped
    HWRF doing a good job teasing.
  24. Amped
    Not too bad, but not amazing either
  25. Amped
    Next recon on it's way. Really wish MX Belize had working radars cause it's hard to tell how far convection is wrapping around the center.
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