andyhb
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Everything posted by andyhb
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Closest match based on progression of Nino region SSTAs and MEI is probably 2007-08 at this point.
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Can see it picking up the low frequency signal there.
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Officially in La Nina conditions per WMO. Thinking a moderate event is becoming increasingly likely with strong trade winds continuing near and east of the dateline.
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Further intensification and westward progression of the Niña seems likely should this trade surge on the ECMWF come to fruition. Looks to me like we’re heading for a moderate event. Seems like MEI is paralleling 2007 as well to a decent degree.
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This, especially after severe season completely shit the bed this year following April.
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This should help cool the western ENSO regions a bit...
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That's impossible to know for now. I'd lean towards a quieter than normal chase season though.
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Typed up a Twitter thread regarding this.
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Should probably add the obvious Nina standing wave pattern showing up now in the 850 hPA zonal wind Hovmollers. Strong, sustained trades across most of the basin.
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September run of the NMME is getting pretty aggressive with the strength of the Niña come winter, with the majority of members reaching moderate strength. Getting rather concerned about a very active cool season severe weather pattern given the drought conditions in the SW supporting efficient EML advection east of the Plains and the La Niña supporting SE/W Atlantic ridging.
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I'm a fan of the low level hodograph curvature I've seen on a few soundings, although I'd like to see the magnitude of the 850 mb flow increase a bit to be more sure on tornado potential. SPC mentions 30-40 kts, but most soundings I've pulled are more in the 20-30 kt range.
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That's a pretty stout discussion on the SWOD2.
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I don't know, because expecting more than 1 out of 15 storms through August to be beyond a Category 1 seems reasonable? Again, it's all relative to the amount of actual activity. Sure if we had only 6 named storms by now, it might look more impressive in terms of "quality" if we had 3-4 canes and 1 major.
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And I said that where? Learn to read for context please. By no means am I calling for a "season fail" the rest of the way through, but consider some actual, I don't know, statistics.
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When a derecho outclasses every storm but one so far, yeah it's been pretty lacking quality wise (then again, that derecho was historic, but I digress).
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Those are absolutely bonkers.
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Holy mother of god. Warning: viewers with headphones might want to lower the volume. Information about where it was filmed.
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Summer severe wx prediction has been documented to have less skill than its spring counterpart. Composite parameters and high resolution/convective allowing guidance have less ability when flow becomes more nebulous in the summer, capping is generally stronger over synoptic scales, and forcing is weaker.
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Multiple other 120+ mph estimates coming out of that survey, including 126 mph at Atkins unofficially measured by a private wx station. We already knew this was a top end event, that just confirms it.
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A cyclic pyrosupercell. Now I’ve seen it all.
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Incredible picture of a fire-induced tornado from the Loyalton Fire near Reno earlier. Radar confirmed it as well and it was tornado warned.
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So apparently DVN has decided to not survey this event. That's honestly pretty sad considering the impact of this thing.
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Quite a few 80-90+ mph reports added in IL via damage surveys (probably some as a result of differentiating from tornado damage). Also a 100 mph report added for Forreston in Ogle County.
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Seems to be some potential in central and northern MN tomorrow provided we see recovery after tonight's MCS. Certainly an upper percentile strength LLJ in place for the time of year, although deep layer shear magnitude/orientation could be a bit better.
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This might be the clearest video yet of the ferocity that some of these gusts in the derecho reached. Tough to estimate exact numbers as usual, but the second half of this clip looks right in line with some mid-range hurricanes I've seen in terms of intensity/sound.
