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LongBeachSurfFreak

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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak

  1. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I would feel fairly confident making that forecast. We need a major climatic event to reset the pattern
  2. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Not saying it’s a lock, just that it wouldn’t be surprising. You could have taken last winter and made that your forecast for this winter and blown all the pro Mets out of the water for winter forecast
  3. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Amazing fetch, that’s going to create one monster swell aimed at Europe. I would Not be surprised to see some of the largest waves ever ridden at Nazaree Portugal. It’s too bad that thing will not disrupt the PV and drop the AO
  4. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I tend to agree there could be some strong winds and damage with this. It’s been relatively calm for a couple weeks wind wise. I’m looking forward to enjoying the right side of the storm in Vermont tomorrow
  5. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I’m a big fan of the repeating pattern idea as well. Last February the vast majority of the board had thrown in the towel only to see that snow blitz. It’s entirely possible that something similar happens again
  6. LongBeachSurfFreak
    From a horticulture perspective you do not want winter to return now. I have tons of perennials coming up on my campus. Add another week of warm weather next week and we will reach a point where the return of cold weather would damage this years bud sets. Let’s say we pulled off a late feb early March cold shot. 20s wouldn’t cause much damage but anything below 15 would be damaging
  7. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Their forecast area goes all the way Into the dacks and southern greens and includes peaks over 3,000’. I would take that with a grain of salt south of kingston
  8. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Simple, complete lack of arctic high pressure. Add more moisture in the atmosphere and it’s continuously cloudy.
  9. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Had a great weekend at Stratton with firm groomers offering plenty of speed. Even in crap winters there are good days to be had if you put in the time.
  10. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Unfortunately, if we do not see a major change in sea surface temps down in tropics we could be stuck in this pattern long term. I still think March produces as the MJO reality’s change at that time
  11. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Based off the the incredible repeating pattern and the change in what the MJO means in March I think this winter isn’t over. After a warm February most will have stuck a fork in it only to have another March snow blitz.
  12. LongBeachSurfFreak
    At this point hope for a SSWA. We need a full scale pattern change or the curtains are closing
  13. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Back over to moderate snow svt. Ended up being a much more frozen event then expected here. I wonder if it has to do with the strong lift and greens
  14. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Moderate rain snow mix at 1200’ in SVT. Looks like heavy snow on the cams at Stratton. Doubt it lasts long
  15. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I’ll be at 2k+ in southern Vermont and expecting an all snow event.
  16. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I do not think a change in track is what we need, temps are just too warm. What we need is a stronger low with stronger dynamics. At this lead time that’s still on the table. But the airmass isn’t going to cut it at the coast without a bomb.
  17. LongBeachSurfFreak
    That’s allot of white rain for the coast. Verbatim this is a big hit inland and elevated, more like something you see early or late season where you need some elevation to gets temps to workout. We would want to see this really bomb to draw in colder air and create its own cold pool. Plenty of time to get things to work, but I wouldn’t be too optimistic outside of our NW guys
  18. LongBeachSurfFreak
    2.5” Uws. Shooting for 3” and it’s going to be close
  19. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Where were you the last 10 years? 14/15 started on 1/20 as the foremost example. Patterns like to lock in our current climate and a change to cold is on the way. Find the cold find the snow... Even last years disaster had a nice 10 day blitz. This is not 01-02 or 11-12.
  20. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Huh? For all intents and purposes it hasn’t started. Wall to wall winters are super rare here and will be even more so moving forward. Be happy with a solid 30-45 day period on the way
  21. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Still waiting on that storm track change. Other then that this one can still produce our first low end plowable event if it comes in like a wall. Feb 14 showed us what a wall of snow can do even right at the coast. It will be more of a now cast to see just how much lift we can get at the onset. A quick 2-4” more north less south scenario seems reasonable right now
  22. LongBeachSurfFreak
    This screams last March to me right along the coast. (I’m talking immediate south shore and jersey shore) where East winds are the kiss of death and you scratch an inch of slush and 10 miles inland it’s another world. We really need to speed things up.
  23. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Looks like those posts were made just before the winds swung around to ESE and really went off the scale. Up until that point (to a novice) it looked like we dodged a bullet. The tide posts I do not get, high tide hadn’t occurred and he was claiming victory. Either was that was the most epic bust on this forum of all time. He was like the captain on the titanic saying we can still make it when the ship was up in the air.
  24. LongBeachSurfFreak
    No one and I mean no one wants this more then me. Anything plowable (3”+) would be a dream come true as I just took the head role on the snow removal. I would consider this a bonus if it happens before we see a full scale pattern change.
  25. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Way too much time to be locking in solutions. This is thread the needle. Allot has to go right.
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