jayyy

Or… you don’t give a crap about the difference between 1” of rain at 45 degrees or 1.5” of rain at 55 degrees when you know it won’t be snow. You just don’t notice when things change. Models showed a ton of rain over us leading into last storm and many busted low in qpf. You just didn’t care because you weren’t emotionally attached to the outcome. .

Thank you. Best shot we’ve had so far this winter and people are already cliff jumping over model waffles 5 days out. Gfs just showed a solid event and it’s still depressing as phuck in here. .

GGEM GFS consensus anyone? Kinda hilarious that the cities have seen no snow in 2 years and now 5”+ for Baltimore proper is a “rugpull”. We’d pretty much all be jumping for joy if that GFS run played out verbatim. A low along the coast with no precip issues? Sign me up. Come on. It’s way too early for this nonsense talk. At least save it for Sunday.

I know suppression is more of a risk than the opposite this go around with the tpv squashing things, but if someone asked where we’d prefer things to be 5 days out… we’d say SE of us 99% of the time. Perhaps models are pressing the tpv a bit too much and we end up with an areawide 3-6” type event. I’d way rather be on the cold side of things with room for things to move N / be more amped than praying for less amped / more progressive as it rarely plays out that way. .

00z gfs anyone? Since we’ve got one a weird tangent about next winter already and ji is posting 500mb maps for 11 months out. .

The initial part of the storm will be hitting in sub 100 hours come tomorrow mornings runs. Saturday 00z will be the real test. Once that cutter comes and goes, how do models look? So close, yet so far.

Been a while since I’ve seen you genuinely excited for a longwave pattern that sets up for more than a brief window of time. Probably since feb 2022, but even then, I believe you were cautiously optimistic as the typical caveats applied. Been a while since we haven’t had to rely on everything lining up perfectly. The tall tale sign of a good MA snow pattern is having numerous ways to score, not just one outcome that requires 5-6-7 different things to lineup perfectly. The CFS and other ensembles do look ridiculously good for February. Delayed but not denied if that were to pan out. Yes, it’s somewhat annoying that we’ve had to wait til 1/16 and beyond to see snow in our area but in reality, that’s only about 3’ish weeks into winter and we all know February is our money maker. All it takes is a decent or better showing from one or both of these next waves (16th and 20th) and an active February to put us above climo - potentially well above climo. IF models are correct about February showcasing a pattern that sustains a -AO/NAO/EPO regime, then woof. I also agree that if we have those lined up, we don’t want some big dog +PNA. Congrats NYC and new England if that happens. Give me a reloading -AO - NAO -EPO with a near neutral PNA and I bet we score big. Things are obviously going to shift around a bit, but models have generally nailed the longwave pattern 2-3-4 weeks out since fall. Exciting times, no doubt. .

GEM being on its own is exactly what we want honestly. I’d take a GFS EURO combo all day. .

Seriously? 6-10” areawide with high ratios isn’t a good run for you? Why would we want this thing to amp up and introduce possible temp issues? What you’re rooting for is going to end in a NYC and NE special, I guarantee it. Also, the OP GFS too cold /SE bias isn’t much of a thing anymore since it’s latest upgrade. It led the charge with that last storm showing it further north. From time to time it’s a bit too progressive at h5, but not like it used to be when you could pretty much guarantee the gfs would trend NW by 250+ miles around day 3-4. This storm was never going to be historic, and rooting for some jacked up wave that results from a complicated evolution rarely works out for our latitude. The first storm in a prime window rarely does. It’s the follow up wave or 2 once the colds been established and the boundarys been dragged south that typically hits big for us. Not sure why’d we’d want to complicate things further for this first storm when our airmass isn’t as established as it will be around the 20th.

We’re waiting on models to fully resolve the cutter and then the Monday night - wed AM timeframe. No shot in sam hell models have the 20th pinned down. One threat at a time ladies. I knew the gfs looked good by the sheer number of replies in this thread when I opened the app. Let’s GO

Seriously. If models were to *hypothetically* look like this the night before the storm hit (I know, it very likely won’t… but if it did) I’d prob stay at my brothers place closer to 95 to enjoy it. Would I take 5-7” of cold smoke? Hell yes. In a heartbeat. I don’t want hear squat about needing a HECS, Ji. An areawide high advisory to low end warning snowfall with temps well below freezing and high ratios (probably near 15:1 with these temps) would do wonders for this subforum’s morale. Only needing 0.5” of QPF to get half a foot would be sweet. Plus, who wouldn’t like some snowcover heading into the 19th and beyond?

Terp is right about that cutter. It’s a big storm and will impact how things look up top leading into the 16-17th event. Models are trying their best to hone in on the 500mb setup, but it’s pretty clear that theyre having trouble deciphering what’s going on given the significant run to run changes at h5 on each model. Once that cutter comes and goes, the envelope of outcomes should tighten drastically. I actually thought today’s trends at 500mb were encouraging. Surface didn’t quite get there due to timing / strength of certain features but there’s plenty of time for those pieces to come together between now and Tuesday. Snow mean on the EPS looked the best it’s looked all season earlier today. The GEPS median looks much better tonight as well. It’s doable, but we will need a little luck to get there - as always. Pretty obvious we all want to see something significant after what we’ve endured the past few years, but I’d sure as heck take a light to moderate snow event to get everyone on the board and get this late winter snow rally started. Some snow cover leading into the 19th and beyond when the longwave pattern gets tasty AF? Yes please. .

Got my beer and a joint ready to go. Mid-Atlantic country, let’s ride. .

^ boom

Maybe he’s trying reverse psychology where he doesn’t post every single snow map and it comes to fruition. Hell, weather53 just had their come to jeebus moment above regarding models showing outcome possibilities and not being a forecast in their own right. Ya never know [emoji1787] .

It’s not actually a big reset. The EPS reloads the block and the southern stream becomes active again 3-4 days after things “break down” .

Good loooord .

Lost power quite a few times this evening. Roar, says the wind. .

PSU touched upon this earlier. Cooler water temps and SSTs in feb & march help in marginal areas like ours. Deep December cold has become a lot less common and therefore it’s taking longer for ocean / lake temps to cool off. Have to imagine the Great Lakes are much warmer than usual for this time of year. Also means the LES machine is about to go ape shit when the real cold comes starting next week .

Just keep swimming…

Also think some people’s definition of what “accurate” means is severely misguided. If guidance 2-3 weeks out shows a pattern change and a potential storm or two but ends up being a few days late / early on the arrival of the cold air and 100 miles off with SLP track, that’s still astonishingly accurate from that lead. Models nailed last storm from very far out, they simply missed some of the finer details that determined exactly where sufficiently cold air (for snow) would be. Now, if we’re talking minute details (exact track, R/S line, etc) we really shouldn’t be taking any solution outside 5 days verbatim. That’s never changed. Sure, models have been upgraded and are a bit more accurate, but it’s extremely rare that any model gets all details correct outside of 3 days. The issue is we want models to give us our desired outcome, and when they don’t, they “suck” or they are misleading. They’re not misleading. We’re misleading ourselves most of the time based on our emotions regarding desired outcome.

Precip type aside… the sheer size of this storm and its widespread impacts from the gulf to the Midwest to New England is very impressive. .

Definitely concerned about flooding in my parents neck of the woods. They saw that foot of mashed potatoes you mentioned in the Hudson valley. They’re currently snowing at 30 degrees on the frontend but it’ll be 40 and pouring rain later on. Gonna be uuuugly for some areas up that way.

Meh, MJO impact is overrated. We’ve seen too many phase 8-1’s fail and phase 4-5 succeed to believe it’s somehow the end all be all for our chances to get snow. A factor? Sure. One of a many. But the MJO is always so overblown on this forum. .

I envy your positivity. Truly. .