Jump to content

SnowGoose69

Professional Forecaster
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    16,198

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    Yeah the occlusion rate of speed as I said in the SNE forum is another factor. The GFS occludes too fast while the CMC i think occludes too slow. As a result much of this forum probably should have gotten less snow in the CMC depiction than the model actually spat out. In general occlusion will occur a bit later than models indicate with these systems here
  2. SnowGoose69
    The areas which will get hit by both the WAA and then the main low is really really tiny. It might be focused mostly near the eastern portion of Mason Dixon line southeast into DE. Even DCA on many of the models and ensembles gets its snow 80/20 on the WAA/coastal.
  3. SnowGoose69
    There’s just been some strange stuff this winter overall. The December storm had the really bizarre displacement of the 700 low from the center which while the occurrence itself wasn’t unusual the fact it was SO displaced in a system that basically began developing over Tennessee was odd. This time it seems to occlude unusually fast. As Tip said, part of that is the setup isn’t great aloft and the ceiling is low on how much it can mature but it seems to be occurring at a faster rate than normal regardless
  4. SnowGoose69
    The occluding factor is what makes this thing tricky on accumulation. The GFS probably occludes it too quickly while I felt the GGEM didn’t do it fast enough. This led to stupidly high snow totals near NYC on the GGEM given it’s evolution.
  5. SnowGoose69
    As I mentioned in the SNE forum there are exactly two storms where DCA and BOS both saw 6 plus and NYC saw less. So it’s really a rare situation and any model showing that idea 98 out of 100 will be wrong
  6. SnowGoose69
    That won’t happen. BOS is probably fine but I think there’s a decent chance NYC gets more than ORH or BDL and certainly any place west of ORH in MA.
  7. SnowGoose69
    I’m gonna be wrong probably on eastern SNE, I didn’t think this would pull that wonky departure/hook north move ala 1/25 and 11/11/87 (the only storms on record BTW where DCA and BOS got 6 and NYC didn’t). Places like BDL/ORH maybe the idea pans out.
  8. SnowGoose69
    Through 72 the UKMET looks less shitty than the 00 or 06Z Euro at 78 and 84
  9. SnowGoose69
    The 500 setup looks marginally less progressive than the Euro but it’s still night and day compared to the NAM
  10. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM pretty much resembles the Euro. It would be a miss relatively speaking for NW areas and nothing big near the metro either. Might mean we aren’t seeing any big move west by the Euro at 12z though I joked in the SNE forum this is usually when some model joins the Euro only for the Euro to move the other way
  11. SnowGoose69
    The RGEM looks more like the Euro. Makes you wonder if the12Z CMC is gonna shift east
  12. SnowGoose69
    The ICON is pretty unreliable this close in. I’ve found at times it can outperform the GFS and Canadian at 100 plus hours but inside day 4 it’s probably on a navgem level
  13. SnowGoose69
    There’s no doubt in my mind either the GFS/UKMET/CMC joins the Euro and shifts like 80 miles ESE then the Euro will come in and look like the NAM. We see that happen usually one cycle around this range where the Euro does the opposite of what everyone thinks as soon as one other model moves towards it
  14. SnowGoose69
    The 00Z NAM tells me if you’re NYC south you’re probably okay beyond 84. North of that I’m not sure sure. The 18Z euro you could argue could be a complete miss. Obviously the EPS wasn’t but the 18Z op Euro might have been a total miss extrapolated
  15. SnowGoose69
    A few Mets from here on Twitter were talking yesterday that this doesn’t really remind us of any storm. We’ve seen plenty of events like this where the shortwave comes out of Manitoba and dives into the mid Atlantic or traverses the plains on a WSW to ENE or SW to NE trajectory to the MA. But seeing one take A SW-NE track from the Rockies to the Midwest then drop ESE into the MA kicking off overrunning snow there there but keeping PHL/NYC sry before turning up the coast is one I don’t really remember and they couldn’t either
  16. SnowGoose69
    At the moment it seems to just have too broad a circulation at the mid and upper levels. This doesn’t look like a KU to me at the moment, just a big snow event where many places might see 8-12 inches or something along those lines. I’ve felt that before though in recent years and it seems there’s always death bands forming nowadays
  17. SnowGoose69
    As I said a couple of days back. This won’t whiff for most of this forum but I would rather be here than New England. This is an unusual case where you have a Miller B type setup and someone between Wilmington and NYC is probably going to see the biggest amounts
  18. SnowGoose69
    Its been better for 2 years now. It used to be automatically overamped at the end of the run every time
  19. SnowGoose69
    The 00Z NAM at 84 actually looks fairly close to the 18Z GFS at 90....how often do we see the NAM come into range and look that similar to the globals? That is usually a sign of a big one
  20. SnowGoose69
    The trof will still be centered to our west I think but closer than it’s been which might keep any ridging out over the Atlantic. The pattern around day 10 and beyond on some ensembles looks a bit like February 1989 which was one of the colder moderate La Niña Februarys here, albeit still slightly above normal
  21. SnowGoose69
    Under ordinary circumstances we would likely be in one now but the NAO is preventing there from being a massive SE ridge. Also it’s somewhat crazy to keep this degree of blocking and -AO this far into a mod La Niña not to mention likely keep it through most of February. I think there are few cases if any where a mod to strong La Niña was able to keep the AO and NAO negative well through February
  22. SnowGoose69
    The models just are brutal this winter long term. Remember 2-3 weeks ago this period was going to be frigid and snowy. That failed. 7 days ago the 10-16 day ensembles showed there was gonna be a massive SE ridge in early February. The GEPS/EPS gave up on that idea several days back, the GEFS is now slowly bailing on it. Ultimately it seems the Niña pattern will never really take hold much like the El Niño one never did last year
  23. SnowGoose69
    The GFS usually at this range will try to barrel these sorts of systems too far north and to add insult to injury there is a -NAO in this case. The right idea is probably something less north than the GFS on approach to the east coast but probably less sloppy and disjointed thereafter than the Euro is. It’s probably going to be a much “cleaner” coastal low than we are seeing on alot of the guidance now. Someone is gonna clean up getting hit by both the initial overrunning and then the coastal jump. That probably isn’t gonna be anybody north of SW CT. That zone will certainly be somewhere between say Fairfield Co CT and Wilmington DE. I rarely say in a Miller B esque or type event you wanna be in NYC but this may be a case where somewhere near NYC is the jackpot due to the blocking setup
  24. SnowGoose69
    The Euro still drags its feet ejecting shortwaves out of the southwest. It’s better than it used to be but still does it at times. Almost any time you see this model difference the Euro is too slow
  25. SnowGoose69
    I think what frustrates everyone is there just has to be a storm behind it to destroy the snowpack
×
×
  • Create New...