SnowGoose69

December 2000 came fairly close to a shutout though I think we had a cheap 1.5 inch snow event mid month which would have qualified as something

One strange aspect we are seeing yet again much as we did 7-10-12 days out from the most recent cold stretch is the Op runs of the GFS/EC are/were insanely mild and ridgey in the east relative to the ensembles...not sure why this is the case but indeed we saw this back in early November too when the ensembles showed almost an entirely 180'd pattern in the long range compared to Ops...its not unusual to see that on some runs but it was almost persistent and it is again.

LOL, FOK airport is 20 degrees colder than HWV and 26 colder than E Hampton...I have seen those differences between there and NYC but never the 2 closest airports

The weak PV and the occasionally funky angular momentum numbers in recent 8 weeks more indicative of a Nino may very well result in a different outcome this year. I know we've seen jokes of a La Nino on social media but there are really signs of both to some degree. We've even seen periods where there is a subtropical jet feature the last 4-6 months

Also I think the MJO was moderately strong in phase 6, it probably will be in 7 or 8 or CDO this time

Even if it gets back to 6 it'll probably be January 1 by the time it happens...it looks likely we will be in 7 or 8 and probably nothing for awhile before any 6 happens again

The 06Z GEFS ultimately gets there 360-384 anyway, just takes a different path to do so

Isnt the standard we have noticed in recent years is the GFS in Ninas typically wins these battles due to the northern stream dominance usually playing into these differences at day 4-6. This one is maybe less so solely a result of that but would not shock me if GFS is correct, especially now that the ensembles agree

It probably does end up more troughy/cold BEHIND the system than the Op GFS/CMC show at 12z....they are if you want to get theoretical a bit too flat or ridgey behind a low that deep but as far as the pulling in air cold enough to snow the low in central Canada coupled with no cold high even across E Canada settles that idea, unless you're at high elevation maybe

The one persistent thing has been if the Euro is killing an MJO wave and the GEFS is blasting into the next phase the GEFS has won almost every single time the last 3-4 years. I'd say its 90-10 or so...no question the Euro has issues on MJO amplitude forecasts

Its remarkable though how the Op despite the ensembles not being close on any of the last 3 runs spat out such a vastly different idea than the ensemble mean...at 132 on the 00Z run the GEFS vs GFS difference is maybe the biggest I ever saw at Day 6

I was about to say shift everything 700 miles west and that pattern is fine lol

I'd lean towards the GEFS on the MJO...anytime the last few winters where its "outamplituding" the EPS it has tended to be right so I'd lean on at least a strong 7 if not going into 8

No shocker too once again the EC tries killing it back into the circle while the GEFS is blasting it into 8...it seems the last 3-4 years the Euro has been regularly schooled by the GEFS when it shows more amplitude

If the MJO is in phase 7 it sure is alot better than 6, that much we at least know and it does seem unlikely as of now it would be in anything but 7 in early December

Does not look like it'll last long...the HRRR and most other models showed a close approach 18-20Z then the band nearly falling apart entirely for awhile this evening before re-organizing and moving over those areas 04-11Z or so.

LOL I remember thinking at the time how that dude looked like an old guy to me now he looks like a kid. Amazing the perception of age of a 12 year old. I believe that guy ended up fired from his job and won a huge suit 10 or so years later vs his company

Watertown had .59 on the ASOS in 2 hours that may have been 7-8 inches

The airport might stop snowing entirely for a few hours before it moves back in tomorrow morning

3 more inches this hour

Crazy. I think back to the November 2000 and December 2001 events and I don’t think at any stage they did anything like that. It definitely shows we’ve softened up somewhat as the older people always tell us young ones

Buffalo airport got 3 inches already in that one hour

Trees mostly lost their leaves up there now so shouldn’t be a problem. This may be their biggest event in November though since the November 20 2000 event

There is no doubt if the MJO goes crazy in phase 6 it probably will be above normal, obviously to expect a December like 2021 again would be a stretch because the PV for one seems to be weaker this year which would probably not result in the same strength of pattern under the same circumstances as was posted above by bluewave, If you look at current MJO forecasts and use the typical tendency of GFS overdoing and EC underdoing it seems likely we reach 7, its just a question of what it does after...so long as it does not loop moderately to strongly back into 6 by 12/5-12/10 you're in a better place than a year ago

Not sure what the staying power of this Nina is though with the funky angular momentum values recently and the waffling SOI the last few months....its possible the atmospheric coupling is not going to be there as we have seen recently in both ENSO phases at times.