Jump to content

SnowGoose69

Professional Forecaster
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    16,198

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    The NAM has been all over with the evolution of the front/surface low the last 4 runs which has made it hard to see a trend of any kind other than NYC and just NW is likely best chc for heaviest rains
  2. SnowGoose69
    The bigger concern would be if it went too far north there could be strong SSW winds but certainly being we would be warm sectored at night and the system isn’t particularly deep we probably would only see those winds on the south shore of LI with gusts to 35-40 at worst. I feel though at the moment we won’t see a big enough NW shift to get fully warm sectored but perhaps ERN LI could
  3. SnowGoose69
    Yeah if this is one of those cases where the late trend continues to game time this will be like 2 inches tops near the coast
  4. SnowGoose69
    18Z NAM wonky evolution trying to sort of double barrel the low but overall idea of heaviest rain placement is same
  5. SnowGoose69
    Given we are seeing the speed of the system increase we may see QPF totals drop slightly over the next 24-36 hours
  6. SnowGoose69
    I had not checked but someone just pointed out to me how the 06Z Euro moved towards the faster solution idea and the 12Z models have all joined that.
  7. SnowGoose69
    I got like 5 mosquito bites last week at a Mets game. I don’t think in my life I was ever bitten inside the stadium before
  8. SnowGoose69
    The 3km sure appears headed for a similar evolution.
  9. SnowGoose69
    Yeah I just saw that. Not sure about that one. Will have to see what other models show. It also shows that evolution with the metro “dry slot” most of the afternoon tomorrow. That will probably verify more with drizzle and continued spotty showers
  10. SnowGoose69
    The Euro prolongs the event like 6-8 hours longer than any model. The fact the NAM which is normally a turtle with everything is faster than the Euro tells me this is mostly done by 11am Thu vs 2-4pm as the Euro has shown
  11. SnowGoose69
    00Z NAM similar to 18Z Op Euro with highest amounts north
  12. SnowGoose69
    The GFS depiction is realistic more so with the SFC winds and 850-925. The Euro might be as a result of the system still having tropical characteristics in the upper levels may be trying to blow things up too much once it reaches the coast. There is not a big high to the NW/N and the low is only 998 or so. The gradient on the SFC panels just looks phony to me or non realistic, I don't think I have ever seen 925 winds of 50-60kts before in such an unimpressive setup like that so it probably has something to do with the Euro picking up tropical characteristics
  13. SnowGoose69
    Only the Euro really shows it and I don't buy it because the gradient does not seem to be there. I think we will be NNE 20G30 Thu aftn and that is probably it
  14. SnowGoose69
    18Z Euro sort of dry slots the metro
  15. SnowGoose69
    I think any big winds would be behind the system. NNE winds gusting in the 30s are standard here so the tree roots would tolerate it decently well, even with soaked ground. Question would be if we clear a bunch late Wed Am/Thu aftn..if we do and the Euro is right with those wild 45-55kt 925 winds we could mix it down. Its on its own though at the moment. I feel based off ensembles that the warm sector punching in here is becoming less likely, the low will probably go south or close to overhead. Even if we did warm sector in the hypothetical scenario the low somehow went over NE PA or SE NY it would occur during the hours of like 3-7am which would make it harder to mix down any strong S-SW winds
  16. SnowGoose69
    06z/12Z models seemed to speed things up again with progression of the system through here after the 00Z cycles slowed stuff up. Euro continues to be only model with the insane 850 and 925 winds which don't make sense. Its likely operating with the system still being tropical in nature as it reaches the coast or something because I can't see otherwise why a 1000mb low would have winds like that at 925
  17. SnowGoose69
    Usually with these if you go more S and E you will be more correct. Thats not to say you cannot see a 3-4 day track of a remnant tropical end up more N and W but its more frequent the end result is on the S/E side of where models are 3-4 days out
  18. SnowGoose69
    And the US Open schedulers will be looking for a way to quit lol...If the Euro idea verifies it'll rain basically all day THU too
  19. SnowGoose69
    There must be a funneling effect at KNEW because they gust higher than MSY consistently
  20. SnowGoose69
    If its swampy land. We've seen it with some Everglades canes before
  21. SnowGoose69
    There’s definitely a big difference right now in winds just based on the radar from MSY airport to 3-5 miles south of them
  22. SnowGoose69
    You probably have to be in the warm sector for anything interesting. You won't see as much rain but you might see a chance of severe weather. I do not think winds will be a major issue. Even on the NW side it'll probably be too stable to mix anything between G30-35 down
  23. SnowGoose69
    MTK anemometer broke after 90kts but this one just recorded 101 KMDJ 291135Z AUTO 03078G101KT 1/4SM FG BKN002 BKN019 BKN025 26/26 A2877 RMK A01
  24. SnowGoose69
    This storm is a late developer and not really big enough. Gulf Storms that do that often time were monsters before entering the Gulf and are more likely to be able to pull the dry air in from the monstrous circulation area.
  25. SnowGoose69
    It'll be 2 hours or so til we know but it seems to me it might just push it out or wrap it down around the south side far from the center
×
×
  • Create New...