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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    One thing is for sure, I'll take a guess it won't be like February 2017 or 2018 and thats a win
  2. SnowGoose69
    In recent years probably due AGW and the W NATL SSTs, systems which in 1988 would drop 2-3 now drop 5-10 regularly despite same MSLP and similar H5/H7 setups. But two factors have tended to keep coastal events in check despite 8 of 10 following the scenario I outlined...fast flow and brief separation between departing system and incoming one...in this case we basically have both at work so I feel aside from a small area of mesoscale banding this event is not gonna be a big one
  3. SnowGoose69
    The NAM is always unpredictable as to when its handling an event well or not...often times when from 48 or beyond it continually shows the same thing over and over its onto something...that theory failed a few days ago though when up until 30 hours out it was the only model missing the MA by 200 miles consistently.
  4. SnowGoose69
    There is pretty decent snows shown on that run to PHL or so due to the s/w but ultimately the transfer or evolutionary process of the coastal is jacked...that could be due to extremely fast flow or many factors but its probably the extreme end of the worst case scenario of how a s/w that good could fail for places PHL on North and east
  5. SnowGoose69
    LOL that NAM run is the only model run in history to actually show a shadowing effect to the full extreme as the coastal forms...in reality though it would never ever verify to that extreme level
  6. SnowGoose69
    That NAM run takes the shadowing effect of the transfer to a new level...models usually underdo it, that run actually overdid it
  7. SnowGoose69
    UKMET still way east but it actually did tick west from 00z
  8. SnowGoose69
    I am always wary these recent years of assuming fast speed means less QPF...this is not 1990 anymore, the warm SSTs in the WATL and other factors are leading to way more banding features in these storms now
  9. SnowGoose69
    You'd have loved the NGM. The NGM would regularly throw back major snows into air that could not support someone's breath
  10. SnowGoose69
    The ridge out west is flat and the pattern is progressive, but the S/W enters the lower 48 so far west and has time to dig down into the Central Plains/TN Valley which might be able to counteract the negatives...if the S/W was coming in over ND/MN and diving into the Oh Valley/Apps I would be more concerned it would just be shunted out eventually
  11. SnowGoose69
    Yeah, this one would seem hard to totally lose at this point but we have seen these go poof before at this range. I feel if you're NYC north you're gonna see something, south of there with Miller Bs you can always see this thing keep trending towards later and later transfer or development
  12. SnowGoose69
    Maybe, the ridge out west is very shallow and not particularly tall and amplified...but the shortwave drops in fairly far west in ID/MT/WY that despite that it has the time to still sharpen...as usual without the -NAO and a stout west ridge there are small differences which will impact this
  13. SnowGoose69
    Based off the latest CIG at East Hampton airport my guess is some places on the S Fork are snowing
  14. SnowGoose69
    Its not especially common to have an inland running Miller B...we usually either straight up fail because it redevelops at too far north a latitude or goes OTS....there are a few instances of classic Miller Bs which went over top of us or just west but its not a very long list. They've tended to occur when the western ridge is on or off the W Coast vs over the Rockies. What MAY happen here is this simply does not become a true Miller B and the primary goes way into OH/PA..
  15. SnowGoose69
    The 89 event models actually began backing off on the 00z run the evening before but forecasters were slow to react. The 12z runs morning of 2-24 pretty much showed zilch but again they didn’t really give up on the forecast til 3-4pm. ACY has had .24 liquid this hour lol
  16. SnowGoose69
    Its 100% of the time overdone but I don't remember any cases of it showing something that big 12 hours out and the event being a total whiff. I'm sure it has occurred though
  17. SnowGoose69
    Almost all of their big La Nina snow events occurred in fast flow patterns with no -NAO where a storm was not able to go NW
  18. SnowGoose69
    Pre upgrade this would freak me out as the Euro was automatically 30-50 miles too far SE with everything, but last few months its been on the nose mostly.
  19. SnowGoose69
    UKMET looks unchanged from 00z
  20. SnowGoose69
    The GFS has probably never scored a win on a mainly/entirely southern stream based event.
  21. SnowGoose69
    The FV3 has been wildly inconsistent for the last year when I have looked at it. I never know when to trust it...the SREF is ALWAYS overdone, however its usually not this deviated from the NAM at 24...its safe to say one will probably be wrong by a good margin
  22. SnowGoose69
    The 12Z HRRR looks more or less like the 06Z Euro...for now I go nothing over C-1 for the NYC area but this is an uneasy 18 hours for sure because any nudge north and you've got several inches of snow
  23. SnowGoose69
    You can see already thru 24 hours the NAM is coming NW but that is not saying much since it basically was nowhere near any other model so far
  24. SnowGoose69
    Since the recent upgrade its exhibited less of the overamped bias from 90-120 it had been having as well as the suppressed bias it was having inside 72 but the sample size is small
  25. SnowGoose69
    The GFS has been lousy recently. I would not put much into that solution and the EPS was not markedly NW of the Euro Op
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