SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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January 2015 bust and 2/25/99 were two I clearly remember...both obviously much better evens for SNE. Early Jan 2017 (I think0 we had one which tracked basically from the Bahamas due north which most, including me poo pooed it 3-4 days out since rarely do systems originating in that spot ever impact us.
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Yeah I would watch that system closely...we've seen plenty of cases of systems of that nature that look like non factors and then become hits. Probably better chance for E LI and SNE though
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It was a clipper...maybe 1/16/04....started 7-8pm, did not really get going though til close to midnight. We then cleared out too early the next day, got to like 18-19 vs the expected 14-15 and failed to go below 0 that night as a result. I think the low was either 0 or 1
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Chances are the pattern flips mild at some stage but typically its delayed after models even show it and they are yet to do that. At this point you'd think 2/1 is the earliest we see any major shift
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January 97 and 99 both flipped pretty hard but then reverted right back in February
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5.5 inches on .35 liquid
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Yeah for sure. Central Park ASOS which always has highly accurate LE numbers in snow events had .35 and reported 5.5 inches. So basically 15:1. LaGuardia’s 7.5-8 or whatever they got seems like it may be a tad high given EWR had 5 and JFK 5.5
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JFK snowing now
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Nothing especially meaningful will fall before 130-145 but it may start snowing in NYC metro in next 30 minutes very lightly
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The HRRR has definitely advanced start time up to as early as 0640-0645z now. Several hours back was closer to 08-0830
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Yeah, wouldn't be surprised if its 12-13:1 even at the coast...the 850-700 temps sure support that
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Its pretty similar in terms of speed/amounts to 2-17 and 4-2 2018, both events had much lousier air masses in place and the setups were not the same but I don't recall any other storms that dropped 6 plus in many areas in a shorter span than those did.
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Its impossible to know. The entire pattern and events over the preceding days would have evolved differently. But if you assume everything the same then yeah the evolution is slower and the storm probably exits slower and you have several more hours of snow
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E Nassau/W Suffolk would be my guess where you might verify a WSW but the confidence is not too high
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More like the Feb 2018 and April 2018 events...not quite as heavy and wet but both dropped 4-7 inches in about 5 hours
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One thing is for sure, I'll take a guess it won't be like February 2017 or 2018 and thats a win
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In recent years probably due AGW and the W NATL SSTs, systems which in 1988 would drop 2-3 now drop 5-10 regularly despite same MSLP and similar H5/H7 setups. But two factors have tended to keep coastal events in check despite 8 of 10 following the scenario I outlined...fast flow and brief separation between departing system and incoming one...in this case we basically have both at work so I feel aside from a small area of mesoscale banding this event is not gonna be a big one
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The NAM is always unpredictable as to when its handling an event well or not...often times when from 48 or beyond it continually shows the same thing over and over its onto something...that theory failed a few days ago though when up until 30 hours out it was the only model missing the MA by 200 miles consistently.
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There is pretty decent snows shown on that run to PHL or so due to the s/w but ultimately the transfer or evolutionary process of the coastal is jacked...that could be due to extremely fast flow or many factors but its probably the extreme end of the worst case scenario of how a s/w that good could fail for places PHL on North and east
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LOL that NAM run is the only model run in history to actually show a shadowing effect to the full extreme as the coastal forms...in reality though it would never ever verify to that extreme level
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That NAM run takes the shadowing effect of the transfer to a new level...models usually underdo it, that run actually overdid it
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UKMET still way east but it actually did tick west from 00z
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I am always wary these recent years of assuming fast speed means less QPF...this is not 1990 anymore, the warm SSTs in the WATL and other factors are leading to way more banding features in these storms now
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You'd have loved the NGM. The NGM would regularly throw back major snows into air that could not support someone's breath
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The ridge out west is flat and the pattern is progressive, but the S/W enters the lower 48 so far west and has time to dig down into the Central Plains/TN Valley which might be able to counteract the negatives...if the S/W was coming in over ND/MN and diving into the Oh Valley/Apps I would be more concerned it would just be shunted out eventually
