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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    The GFS has been lousy recently. I would not put much into that solution and the EPS was not markedly NW of the Euro Op
  2. SnowGoose69
    I still cannot believe how out there the NAM is with this system down in the MA in 36 hours.
  3. SnowGoose69
    Yeah. I posted a few days back that many forecasters who did longer range stuff were excited in Sep/Oct 95 about the winter. One guy who used to do MA outlooks even as recently as a few years back predicted 50 inches for DC that winter which most would think was insane any year and he was correct.
  4. SnowGoose69
    In my lifetime 02-03 is closest...we moderated for a short time in mid December but I don't recall a massive thaw in Jan/Feb as we saw in 93-94 or 95-96
  5. SnowGoose69
    That happens on occasion in La Ninas due to progressiveness of the pattern. DCA/BWI in general do way worse than NYC in La Nina winters but they have had some decent snow events and they are almost always a product of either fast/progressive Pac flow or northern stream shunting
  6. SnowGoose69
    Yeah there was arguments 93-94/95-96 were both active partly due to the long duration El Nino of 90-93 beforehand...in essence 90-91/91-92/92-93 were all Ninos but then why did 94-95 suck so bad. Pinatubo possibly played some role in 92-93/93-94 and 95-96 also. Remember 92-93, much like 96-97 was not that much of a ratter once you got away from the immediate metro.
  7. SnowGoose69
    Obviously social media and the internet hardly were in large use then and winter forecasts were not a big thing. However, there were actually quite a few Mets who were forecasting a big winter that year in Sep/Oct. I do not recall the reasons why but there was alot of buzz going around that the NAO was going to largely be negative and we had a good chance for a huge winter. The active tropical season may have been partly why they were hyping it
  8. SnowGoose69
    13-14 was, 14-15 I think was a +PNA
  9. SnowGoose69
    Probably...in 09-10 we likely would have gone over 90 if even the 2/6 storm hits us and we had other close calls...10-11 also was on pace to maybe break the 95-96 record but the pattern just collapsed.
  10. SnowGoose69
    13-14 and 14-15 both produced an insanely high amount of snow despite bad AO/NAO indices.
  11. SnowGoose69
    Monday has some potential but usually in those events I prefer to see the high positioned over far SE Canada or sliding offshore vs being up in Ontario. With a shearing out wave like that you could count on more overrunning being generated in those situations.
  12. SnowGoose69
    December 1990 also...honestly the pattern right now at 500 over the US is pretty close to what it was in December 1990, the NAO/AO was strongly positive that month though
  13. SnowGoose69
    FWIW the 18Z NAM is taking a step towards the 12Z Euro with that 12/24 event
  14. SnowGoose69
    Thats about right...its more or less the same for summer. If you don't see a pattern change by mid July its fairly rare August turns around...oddly enough both 2001 and 2002 saw exactly that with a full scale turnaround for August but you don't see it much
  15. SnowGoose69
    Its really hard to get shutout. Many think the 72-73 record is pretty close to untouchable for NYC although we did come really close in 97-98 and 01-02 to breaking it. I think its just remarkably difficult though to avoid 1 or 2 events even in bad winters and that usually pushes you over 2.8 inches
  16. SnowGoose69
    Yeah 93-94 was like 13-14 (I believe I have the year right on that) where the NAO was positive and even the AO for periods but the EPO was insanely negative.
  17. SnowGoose69
    The last couple of El Ninos in essence acted like La Ninas...even the 15-16 El Nino the December pattern was nothing like 83/97...it was sort of more like 72...I believe for sure that in a -PDO regime that even in a Nino you risk having a SE ridge pattern if you cannot get other things to line up for a +PNA
  18. SnowGoose69
    The -NAO is less effective earlier in winter...I posted in the MA forum that this same pattern 6-8 weeks from now with differing wavelengths probably results in the SER being non existent or way flatter. The good news is that historically in a small sample size that -NAO/-PNA patterns that have set in around 12/15-12/20 have tended to result in a -NAO for the rest of the winter.
  19. SnowGoose69
    Ultimately if this same pattern was around in 8 weeks I think the MA and north MA have better success. The NAO effectiveness, maybe due to shortening wavelengths has always been shown to be way more at beating down a SER in a lousy pattern the later you get in winter, December is the month with the worst AO/NAO correlation for sure. We could have used this setup 6 weeks from now
  20. SnowGoose69
    The CFS occasionally has runs inside 30 days where it nails the pattern but the last year or so its been bad even inside of 30 days
  21. SnowGoose69
    Its also questionable how much the MJO influences things anyway...many mets claim unless its in a highly strong amplitude it likely has way less influence than we think it does and its more like cold SSTs/caused by/a result of the ridge or trof not the cause of the ridge or trof. Joe D'Aleo did a writeup in spring 2002 showing that despite a raging MJO in phase 3-4-5 all of the 01-02 winter the ultimate PV strength would have resulted in probably the same pattern if the MJO was a in 8-1-2 all winter.
  22. SnowGoose69
    I told someone yesterday this is about the ideal snow storm you're gonna get in this pattern...NYC got 5-7 inches with this. The -NAO was fake here as it was basically a bootleg -NAO as a result of a low that bombed offshore a day or two prior, otherwise this wave probably would not have sheared or dampened and cut north. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1989/us0106.php
  23. SnowGoose69
    The problem in the last decade now is that it seems everything DOES phase. I cannot count how many times down here we've had a setup where I said if this was 1990 this would be a big front end snow but the system became a 985 low over Missouri whereas 25-30 years ago it would not have...whether this is in part due somehow to the crazy NATL SSTs I don't know but it seems we don't get as many dampening shortwaves in these patterns anymore
  24. SnowGoose69
    It’s not over yet but it does look maybe the threat for Minnesota won’t be as bad as initially expected
  25. SnowGoose69
    Honestly don't recall ever seeing that type of pattern for any duration longer than a few days...usually that sort of RNA setup in the EPAC/W Coast occurs in regimes where your NAO/AO is positive 9 out of 10 times...
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