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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    Ratios were around 11:1 based on the NYC measurement.... .69 liquid today 7.5 inches
  2. SnowGoose69
    thats just today...its 8.7 for the event which is close to EWR/LGA
  3. SnowGoose69
    Normally it happens in a transfer scenario but these lows we’ve seen in recent years like this probably are some product of the crazy warm WRN NATL SSTs/WAR/AGW issues is my guess because they’re a recent thing
  4. SnowGoose69
    The few cases we’ve seen in the last decade where this was modeled the end result was often in the middle where there was a secondary low but you didn’t see the massive pulling of the precip field with it
  5. SnowGoose69
    That’s about right. The far NW could be too high but a shift of 25-30 miles which is a logical error in this range will be a big difference if you’re from nassau back to the west edge of the area
  6. SnowGoose69
    The RAP usually has a west bias at this range but it’s so far west there is room for a drift east if it’s got the right idea
  7. SnowGoose69
    UKIE historically has had slight progressive bias with monster lows like this below 980 so it fits about with that with most other models now somewhat left of it
  8. SnowGoose69
    Thats very much a mesoscale feature...the GFS is still a bit low grid to see that
  9. SnowGoose69
    0 is unlikely but 2-3 sure could happen in a worst case scenario
  10. SnowGoose69
    there was a storm a few winters ago where that happened and then at the last minute they all lost it. I don’t remember which it was but the forecasts all busted too low as a result of it
  11. SnowGoose69
    This looks like the usual GFS last minute cave...at the same time I don't think this will be a case where we see the PA/NJ border end up getting 10-15 inches as we've seen in some prior cases like this. I would say NYC ends up around 8 in the end so maybe something near the NAM/RGEM idea now
  12. SnowGoose69
    Its done that often in these events...it does not cave til 24-30 out and even then it sometimes is too east. In this case the mesos are not quite as far west as they were in many cases I remember so maybe it won't be quite as wrong but it seems at this stage it'll be wrong on its idea vs the Euro/CMC/RGEM overall
  13. SnowGoose69
    It used to have a consistent east bias with very strong coastal lows or lows sub 985 or so and tended to be very good with anything weaker but it had an upgrade in 2014 and it has been erratic since but still will tend to have a bit of a progressive bias with stronger systems
  14. SnowGoose69
    Yeah if you extrapolate it it does seem that it moved west
  15. SnowGoose69
    The UKMET appears to be fairly far west on that one site that comes out early but its hard to tell
  16. SnowGoose69
    The GFS usually holds out til the final 30-36 in cases where its struggling with an East Coast storm...I expect you don't see any major moves til tomorrow
  17. SnowGoose69
    This may be the usual adjustment followed by the slide back east, if we adjust for 2-3 more model cycles though we would be in decent position for a solid event even with a late tick back to the east
  18. SnowGoose69
    The area doesn’t need a huge change to get a decent snow event unlike this last storm where we were largely out of it by this point. New York City with this event at this range is about where Raleigh or Salisbury was with the last storm. They were shown to get a big event 5-6 out then they were west or fringed. Ultimately they never got the shift they needed but they were in it til 48 hours out
  19. SnowGoose69
    I'll take a wild guess and say the 00Z NAM is west of 18z but considering it was in Portugal at 18Z that is not a tough guess to get right.
  20. SnowGoose69
    Probably not because winds will be really strong. Especially nearer the coast
  21. SnowGoose69
    Any time the GFS differs fairly significantly from the Euro in a storm that has southern stream origin or anything close to it, its possible it will get owned. It did not last week but that was more of an atypical evolution. The GFS did badly blow the one true Miller A we had this year
  22. SnowGoose69
    This is correct...the one thing the Euro/EPS has had correct for the last 2 days is the mass extending snow shield west of the low...there are tiny hints the last few Op runs of the GFS/CMC of that but especially so on some of their ensemble members that they are starting to pick that up...but if the low track is so far east it won't really matter to anyone
  23. SnowGoose69
    The Euro will probably incrementally continue to tick east barring the GFS/CMC ideas being wrong which I guess is possible
  24. SnowGoose69
    I pointed this out in the NYC forum a few days ago but the 500mb pattern over the US is so darn similar to February 24 1989...the storm evolution itself is not and is way more dynamic but the track may be pretty darn similar.
  25. SnowGoose69
    One thing of note is that more members of the GEPS/GEFS at least are picking up on the fact a huge ass area of snow will exist in long duration behind the low track....given what is going on at the mid/upper levels that has been one thing its evident the Euro/EPS has been correct on for 2 days
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