SnowGoose69

December 05 was probably the biggest ever, 0 at JFK and 5=6 at LGA/NYC I think. 1/7/94 some far north points of the North Fork had 6-10 inches of snow while most of the remainder of LI was PL or FZRA. February 99 the N shore of Nassau back into Queens/NYC had a nasty ice storm maybe .25-.40 at 27-29 while the S shore was 35-37

SWFEs are truly gradient storms in that we have seen a place like Orient Point before get amounts closer to that of SNE because they are so far north...the line is almost always a straight north-south gradient.

The Euro always underdoes the warm nose in these events on the very SRN edge of the big snows it depicts. It seems to be almost a lock every time. I said earlier the zone from about midway between BDR-BDL on south has to be wary of snow totals being way overdone, this is all of coastal CT and the SRN Hudson Valley in my forum

The Euro usually over does snow on the S edge in these events. I've never fully understood why because it has a solid grid resolution but it typically misses the warm nose til the last minute. The RGEM is by far the best model if you ask me for ptype at the moment though it is likely too cold after 10Z Fri AM on the south edge

That is definitely one I have never head before...I was not aware nor am I sure that in this case surface warmth that far away has any real relevance to the mid levels 1000 miles way 36 hours later

That area from BDL-POU south to HPN-BDR is probably overdone on snow on most models...thats the corridor I feel where sleet will be more than expected probably athough BDL and POU themselves will do well its those places between where I just doubt anyone sees over 4-5 inches

Yeah I would be shocked in this setup if that happened unless we got a decent shift S of 30-40 miles from the overall consensus now

The NAM in this case has the track of all the lows way north of everything else. Sometimes it has more or less similar tracks to everything else and is more sleety/mixed...in those cases take it and run with it every time. It is definitely correct on the fact the metro starts as sleet...it may be PLSN for like 40 minutes but even the Euro now seems to be indicating the 5 boroughs area is 80% sleet as far as the frozen precip goes

That may be too cold....I do not think JFK/CNJ are seeing a full blown all frozen event or ice storm but certainly LGA/EWR/NYC may

When you consider the RGEM tends to be somewhat amped with low tracks at times past 30-36 and its still south of the NAM its highly likely the NAM is too far north. I cannot see BOS really seeing any sustained period of sleet with this and BDL honestly may not either

Its still insanely far north compared to everything else. I'd bet the house its likely wrong but you can toss any model showing long periods of snow at the coast...the NAM is likely way too early though flipping NE NJ/NYC to rain...I think its very possible those places never totally switch to RA

The NAM idea of starting as sleet and then flipping to snow for a time is not very realistic...the RGEM going sleet/freezing rain most of the event makes more sense

Cancelled my V-Day dance, I was a very upset teen....setup was not bad, cold air was majorly lacking though...could have easily been all snow with a good air mass http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/1993/us0212.php

When you look at the wind directions on all models you can actually see the CAD signature develops as the surface low strengthens and approaches from the SRN Ohio Valley. Both GFS/NAM show winds 21-00Z try to go light 09-130...the GFS obviously turns them SE as it cannot resolve even the weak damming signature at this range...then past 02Z they back towards 040-060 again. I still question whether this is a snow event for more than an hour at the coast...its much safer to lean mainly sleet at this time

I'd say there is little chance if any this can evolve to be more than 1-3 hours of snow to start in NYC but it sure could evolve to be 80% frozen..rarely will a SWFE be 100% frozen in NYC...especially if its not predominantly snow...there has been only 1-2 SWFE events I remember which were predominantly ZR or P which stayed all frozen near the city

The CMC is an absolute disaster down here unless that is mostly PL...I still think this ends up north of the CMC but that may not help a ton if you want to avoid FZRA...if the CMC/GFS show the FZRA down that far it would in reality verify way further south and west than that as they do not see low-level cold air well at this range

There still needs to be more of a north shift than even the 12Z GFS in the end to avoid big icing problems for a large part of the area...its never good when at 96 hours even the low res in terms of seeing cold air GFS has FZRA down to EWR-HPN..that tells you in reality if that exact scenario unfolded it would be a good 30 miles south of that if not more

Yeah....it was more I think that the system was a sloppy non consolidated MSLP...the trof that dug into the OHV and MA was crazy deep, ultimately a surface reflection formed off the Delmarva on 12/5 which no model had forecast at all which led to the huge snows that day...there was still a weak low inland and I think thereafter the process of consolidation was all sorts of sloppy so we had two mesoscale areas of snow over C LI and E NJ on 12/6 and nothing in between.

Typically we only get one of those crap mid layer events when we have a real stale air mass in place or the system is an absolute bomb...in this case right now we do not really have either one at this range but that could change, especially the latter...the former I doubt as the air mass looks good

The CMC did not make a notable change...it probably was not as far north once it reached PA but its still mostly PL or RA near the coast..the CMC/Euro having that front running shortwave which washes out over the MA probably is having some impact on the end solution of the main system but at this range not sure how

I'm not as pessimistic as forky though he is correct about how far north the PV is...the main issue despite the high being in a decent spot is its almost too far west potentially...you'd really prefer that whole elongated high complex be about 500 miles more east and in place earlier...ultimately if the GFS track verified it would not matter but if something more amped happened you'd have a better shot at a long period of snow if the air mass was anchored in place for a day in advance and you had deep cold air..otherwise there would be a risk of a ton of sleet

The GFS is wrong given the pattern but the CMC is probably wrong too...the air mass is likely going to be good enough for a good 4-6 hours of all snow for the entire area to start...the SNE thread comparing it to 2/2/15 may be a good similar example.

The GEFS I think continues to be too ridgy in the SE past D10...that probably hurts us somewhat as far as storm chances as the EPS pattern is more cold dry. Its sort of unusual in shorter wavelength pattern to see a bootleg SER try to flex like that with an EPO ridge and the PV basically in E Canada so the EPS makes more sense to me given it'll be March

Often times in these marginal temp events, especially in Feb/Mar we will see airports report low...NYC usually won't though but we have had a bunch of storms over the years this time of year or later near 32-33 and JFK or LGA might report 4 while a person 2 miles away gets 6-7 in their yard

They only record .22 liquid though so I'm not sure...its an undermeasurement for sure but given the reliability of that ASOS to be close on LE I bet they got 2.3 or 2.4 at most...there were numerous little mesoscale area of subsidence and stonger bands