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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    The track on the hurricane models too IMO is not likely after landfall. I think the NNE or NE movement after landfall is more likely, especially if this is a 3 or 4. A hurricane that strong more often can be somewhat deflected by a feature such as the low over the WRN gulf states vs absorbed in.
  2. SnowGoose69
    This feels like when all the models show a massive coastal storm at Day 7-8 and everyone assumes its 2024 the models cannot all be wrong on that, SOMETHING will happen and then we've seen often times it does not since 96-120 tends to be more of the magical range for that theory. Add in that everything has struggled to develop this year and you'd still need a perfect scenario where it misses the Yucatan here for this to be something close to what guidance is indicating. I think A storm happens but the odds something this perfect materializes is low
  3. SnowGoose69
    Saw JB's Euro seasonal post and it makes no sense IMO. I don't see why you'd basically have a nationwide torch in a weak Nina following a moderate Nino, there really is no track record of that ever happening. If want to go purely off the ENSO you'd say 54-55 83-84 92-93 16-17 seem to be the closest matches of weak Nina following Mod or greater Nino. None of those were nationwide torches at all. I guess the problem is 2 were in a +PDO ERA. 16-17 is the only thing remotely close to that Euro seasonal US temp anomaly forecast and even the west was way colder.
  4. SnowGoose69
    Tomorrow evening could be active for central and eastern LI
  5. SnowGoose69
    Lightning now on the area of cells west of Staten Island headed for the southern part of the metro
  6. SnowGoose69
    No lightning yet but not likely to see a ton of convection on the line til 21Z or as it approaches the area
  7. SnowGoose69
    OFBs now blowing things up all over, cells popping near LGA though they're just high topped showers for now. Also more development happening west of SI over NJ
  8. SnowGoose69
    Looks like the WRF-ARW and the RDPS were closest to the 18-20Z evolution overall. I think 22-01Z is the window for most of the area north of that, the steering flow veers more W to SW.
  9. SnowGoose69
    Its about a Danbury to Sussex County line. I am not sure it makes it much past around New Brunswick by this evening. I felt yesterday it would clear safely south of the metro by 15-16z. We should see cells form on it too as early as 17Z, especially NYC east
  10. SnowGoose69
    The front is not pressing as far south as expected yesterday so this could be bad for the area whereas I leaned more central NJ or E PA 24 hours ago
  11. SnowGoose69
    The NY harbor earthcam now looks like a microburst...just a wall of white
  12. SnowGoose69
    EWR probably hit 100, as soon as winds shifted from 160-220 they warmed up
  13. SnowGoose69
    More resembles the WRF-ARW2 now which by far has been closest to what is happening on timing and formation of cells
  14. SnowGoose69
    Its only showers but already more activity initiating in PA than the HRRR showed. Could still see a line of TSTMs here 22-23z
  15. SnowGoose69
    The HRRR IMO is underdone somewhat while the 3km NAM is likely overdone. The instability sort of peaks more in NJ. We may see little to nothing on that line til the disturbance reaches far NE PA and W NJ but development would probably fire up much faster than the HRRR indicates
  16. SnowGoose69
    We'll see if ocean temps are warm enough for these cells to maybe make it across and impact southern Queens or Brooklyn but I think they'll weaken
  17. SnowGoose69
    The SUNY Oswego webcams look like there could be a wall cloud off to the west but its not rotating from what I see and may just be leftover from an old circulation
  18. SnowGoose69
    I was listening to some radio station in Jamaica that night as were some others here on this forum or maybe easternwx, I recall the guys giving a play by play and it took somewhat of a last minute jog SW I think
  19. SnowGoose69
    18z hurricane models are a bit closer to Jamaica again
  20. SnowGoose69
    LaGuardia reporting 101 this hour
  21. SnowGoose69
    I think the change began quite a bit before that too. I began noticing in 1996 or 97 that their readings began falling, in 93-95 there did not seem to be a huge disparity. Another issue that some have theorized plagues the readings at NYC, especially on hot days where there is less wind is a layer of smog that can develop in urbanized areas and slightly reduce the solar radiation. This was pointed out by someone back in 98 or 99 that they'd often soar in temp til 12-1pm then level off and not go up as much as the other stations.
  22. SnowGoose69
    Even now why is the GEFS so much more troffy out west near 3/20 vs the GEPS/EPS? Even with the two ensembles close to the same on MJO amplitude in 7? Would see again GEFS just more thinks the PAC jet is gonna blast the PAC NW blocking ridge that forms away while the other 2 suites do not see it being as easy to knock it down
  23. SnowGoose69
    Models always try to rush pattern flips...depending upon what the SSW does though we might find that things change faster than expected. Would not be exactly blown away if the 3/10-3/15 period ends up colder or much different looking at H5 than what ensembles will show over the next 5 days when its falling in the 11-15 span.
  24. SnowGoose69
    There was a pretty strong push from the mid 90s to the mid 2000s to hire mostly degreed meteorologists on TV but in the last 10-15 years that has really vanished again. Many of the people on TWC for example are not meteorologists now...at least the more recent hires anyway. Part of the problem is the Mississippi degree is becoming a huge thing now. I have been hearing even operational meteorology jobs they're seeing like 30% of the applicants with that degree. NWS requirements still force you to have courses though which won't qualify you with that degree
  25. SnowGoose69
    Some similarities to 00-01 though December 03 was not nearly as cold but the winter decided to just take a long break for most of February into early March before it came back again. February 04 remains the only case for NYC where at least 6 inches of snow did not fall when Dec/Jan both had 10 inches or more.
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