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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    In that setup it’s hard to have a warm layer for a very long period. That’s a very strong closed system
  2. SnowGoose69
    You can toss the UKIE snow amounts. The city would get bombed on that setup. It has 33-35 with rain with dewpoints of like 30. That’s gonna be snow
  3. SnowGoose69
    The closed low on the NAM from 75-84 is just insanely broad. That means there will be a gigantic dry slot. You can’t really know details for another 36-48 or so on this but someone will be clocked on the W-NW side of that closed low. The slow movement isn’t exactly great because if the low ultimately begins occluding everything west of the closed low will shutoff so you want slow movement to maximize snow potential but not so slow the surface low begins to occludes and everything behind the upper low does
  4. SnowGoose69
    The NAM for the last couple of years has been much better beyond 60 but I’ve found you can only trust it’s solution in that range when it “drum beats” showing virtually the same idea over and over for 3-4 runs. If you see any sort of waffling it can be tossed.
  5. SnowGoose69
    I don’t see there being any snow with that. The GFS is likely too warm showing all rain but I expect it’ll be primarily sleet. There could be some snow for about an hour early but that’s all. I won’t really be confident about Monday til we see the track of the ULL. The bottom line is any closed ULL that is positioned East or northeast of the area can produce heavy snow and you often won’t get details on it til inside 48 when the RGEM or NAM are inside range
  6. SnowGoose69
    It’s basically like 4/1/97
  7. SnowGoose69
    It is but it’s a broad closed low and it’s far north so the surface depiction seems to match it though I’m not sure that Connecticut would be dry slotted that severely
  8. SnowGoose69
    The question is. On that panel is 500 closed off. If it is there would be heavy snow basically from NYC to PVD with the low in that spot
  9. SnowGoose69
    It’s when they call the cops from the street in Los Angeles and get picked up
  10. SnowGoose69
    Even in the 1992 Seinfeld episode when Jerry said it to George he responded “black and white”?!
  11. SnowGoose69
  12. SnowGoose69
    There was another storm later that month where ITH/BGM got destroyed I think with like a foot and the forecast was 1-3. I think it was a clipper that hit mostly the NYC area but some funky band formed up on the north side that nobody saw coming
  13. SnowGoose69
    The worst thing was nobody reacted that morning when it was evident the forecast was in serious trouble. There was insane rates of rainfall moving up the NJ coast and it was 35/26 or something in NYC and basically all everyone did was push the changeover time back when in reality no significant warming was occurring on a NE wind
  14. SnowGoose69
    Many people mistakenly think the WAA snow on Friday wasn’t forecast like January 2011 but it was actually forecast well. It was the temps that weren’t and so it was snow and not rain.
  15. SnowGoose69
    12/5-6/03 is one of the most underrated busts ever. The first part of the storm overperformed for NYC because SNE cleared out overnight ahead of the cirrus shield and the NE flow affected much colder and drier down ahead of the WAA precip than expected. Instead of the 38/35 that was expected it was 38/28. Then the second part of the storm that was supposed to be the main show was disjointed and produced virtually nothing
  16. SnowGoose69
    1-4-03 I vaguely remember as being a small event that had a mega gradient. NYC was all rain and 33 yet places like BDR/HPN/HVN snowed all day and had like 4-6 inches I think. It was somewhat like a 12/9/95 or 12/9/05
  17. SnowGoose69
    Usually when there’s blocking the tracks change less at day 3-4 but they still change. This whole evolution is going on early enough I think we might see things tick north in the next 24 hours for a few cycles then go back south again close to today’s ideas. I’m not sure this can really slide much more south
  18. SnowGoose69
    It probably has 33 at the surface or something which in that setup probably wouldn’t happen
  19. SnowGoose69
    The UKMET and CMC basically look like March 2001 gradient as someone pointed out in the SNE thread or even 4/1/97 minus the bigger amounts in EPA and WNJ
  20. SnowGoose69
    That is such a rare sort of gradient to see. I’ve seen many smaller storms have gradients like that but the big ones usually end up 100 miles north or south if they have amounts that major. There’s no way NYC is seeing 3-4 inches in that setup. They’d probably see 0 or it ends up 100 south and they get 12
  21. SnowGoose69
    Probably seeing these trends occur too early. This will probably end up bouncing back north once we get closer in
  22. SnowGoose69
    I think most of that precip the NAM shows after 75 is probably sleet. If we see any major snow it’s likely once the low gets going offshore. I think the initial bout of WAA is sleet or rain
  23. SnowGoose69
    2/8/13 was pretty bad. That setup probably couldn’t have worked if it occurred 4-5 weeks earlier. It was just late enough in the season that it didn’t kick too far right. It was fairly close to April 1982
  24. SnowGoose69
    It was exceptionally awful last winter tending to be too flat/cold but that doesn’t mean it’ll be the case this year
  25. SnowGoose69
    The NAM at 84 is only a tad drier than the GFS
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